A price point that has come down is the Orioles road price today against the Washington Nationals. I believe that is the wrong move considering Orioles starter Dean Kremer settled in his last outing. Mitchell Parker of the Nationals has been outstanding to start the season, and pitched well against the Orioles last year. He gave up just two runs but the Nationals lost in extra innings. Expect a similar outcome with the Orioles outlasting the Nationals once Parker exits. Take Baltimore

Get ready for the "Battle of the Beltways" tonight in DC. We're wondering if we have a "reputation vs reality" price in this lid-lifter. To favor the Orioles on the road, even if it's just 35 or so miles from home, with Dean Kremer (8.16 ERA) on the mound, looks like a "reputation" price from the past two seasons. The Birds are swimming below .500 (9-12) and their rotation has been awful with an ERA near six. The Nats effectively have the same record (9-13) but note how well Mitchell Parker has fared at home, 2-0 with an 0.73 ERA in two starts. Play Nationals on the Money Line.

Mitchell Parker is not a high-strikeout pitcher compared to what we see around the league, but there's value on the prop as listed. He's coming off a 6-strikeout performance in his last start, and the Orioles are one of the free-swinging teams in the league.

Wrong team is favored here in the F5. The Nationals' bullpen is worst in MLB, but we can avoid them with the F5 and get Mitchell Parker on the mound. He's worked six innings in every start and is a favorite to go over 17.5 outs tonight. Baltimore has been near MLB worst against left handed pitching in basically every category after being one of the top teams last year. I think they're likely due for some regression but when? Parker threw into the 6th inning while allowing five hits and two runs against this lineup last year and he's improved a couple of his pitches since. Dean Kremer has struggled with lefties, and the Nats have seven in the projected lineup.

Just want to remind anyone who perhaps followed my Tigers play Monday that we void MLB plays if the starting pitcher changes (not at last second), and that was the case for Detroit -- sure wasn't playing Keider Montero. Always do listed pitchers if your book still allows. I'm not really sure why the Orioles are favored in the Battle of the Beltway with Dean Kremer on the mound and holding an ERA near 9.00 on the road. Washington's Mitchell Parker is not close to as good as his 1.85 ERA, but as SL expert Jason La Canfora noted in his pick also fading his Orioles, they can't hit lefties (.512 OPS).

The Orioles are an abject failure against LHP despite their foolish GM doing nothing to upgrade their lineup this offseason except add suspect RH bats to hit lefties. The O's rank 29th in BA (.184), 28th in OBP (.259) and 30th in SLG (.253!) vs LHP. Mitchell Parker is a smoke-and-mirror lefty without elite velo, exactly the type that has crushed the Orioles for years. Dean Kremer is generally terrible before May every year. Baltimore is a terrible fielding team and while the Nats' lineup has issues, James Wood is a stud who grew up rooting for the O's and will be locked in. I have to see the Orioles even show up vs a lefty before I don't fade them here.