Four of the last five games between these two have gone under the total. San Diego is hitting .213 with a .598 OPS against lefties at home over the last month. The Braves are hitting .219 with a .659 OPS over their last seven days and are the best under team in the league. If either team gets into trouble, they both have a top 5 bullpen in the NL in regard to ERA, San Diego with a 3.78 and the Braves own a 3.32.

San Diego leads the season series, including the playoffs, 5-3. Max Fried has faced the Padres once this season, allowing three runs in 4.1 innings. Joe Musgrove has allowed two runs in his last 18.1 innings. The Padres have all the momentum currently and Atlanta looked defeated last night. Atlanta is only hitting .219 with a .659 OPS over their last seven days.

Already we see a narrative for this series that could also read as an epitaph for the Braves, who are obviously damaged by Chris Sale's unavailability. Sale's absence and the rotation dynamics forced Brian Snitker into using raw 21-yeap-old rookie AJ Smith Shawver at the outset last night, which would put Atlanta in a hole from the early going in an eventual 4-0 loss. Max Fried is now the presumptive ace of the Braves staff for this series, and has allowed just 1 ER and 8 hits across 14 2/3 IP (0.61 ERA) in his last two starts. Meanwhile, the Padres' Joe Musgrove has been almost untouchable in his last three starts, allowing just 2 runs across 18 1/3 IP (0.98 ERA). Play Braves-Padres "Under"

We saw Michael King absolutely crush the Braves lineup last night, racking up 12 strikeouts through seven masterful innings. Now Joe Musgrove takes the ball, looking to send his hometown team to the divisional round of the playoffs. Musgrove has looked stellar since returning from the IL in August, pitching to a 2.15 ERA in 50+ innings, with 57 strikeouts in that time. His underlying metrics back up his strong performances, with a swinging strike rate of 12.5% and a Stuff+ rating of 134 since returning from injury! Musgrove has hit the over in seven of his last eight starts so I'll take a stab here at the over.

I certainly give the Braves a better chance of winning tonight than last night, when I bet the most I have all year on an MLB team (thank you Friars). Clearly oddsmakers agree. Atlanta's Max Fried is a fine pitcher. But I still think that team is totally on fumes after a wild weekend/Monday/Tuesday. A fair amount of Padres have good splits off Fried. Since returning from an elbow injury in early August, SD's Joe Musgrove has posted a 2.15 ERA with 57 strikeouts to just eight walks. The Padres barely used their terrific bullpen last night, either. It would be such a huge advantage to clinch here and save Dylan Cease for Game 1 of the NLDS vs. the Dodgers.

Joe Musgrove has been stellar in 9 starts since returning from injury, with a 2.15 ERA allowing a .553 OPS. He loves pitching at home, allowing 1 ER or less in 5 of his final 7 outings there with a 2.03 ERA. Braves running on fumes, decimated by injuries and backs to wall again. Max Fried has been great but has a 4.57 playoff ERA and got lit up by Friars earlier this season (9 H in 4 1/3). Friars playing loose, 21-9 in last 30 home games, with elite bullpen and loaded with high OBP guys and dudes who mash in the clutch (Machado, Tatis). They smell blood and they might be the best team in baseball right now.