I can't deny that I am in a huge hole this week. Worst of season. Mentioned it before: The last couple weeks before the All-Star break are the worst for guys like me who back home favorites for the most part. Last night was an utter disaster. I was going to take the night off and perhaps I should but instead I'll do a slumpbuster ahead of the holiday weekend. I worry too much about my "numbers" on here. I bet very, very differently off-site. This will be my parlay anchor, for example. Gavin Stone vs. Cristian Mena in his MLB debut (and hasn't been great in minors) looks like a huge mismatch.

Freddie Freeman has been excellent of late, hitting .319 in June and ripping the game tying rbi double late last night to help the Dodgers eventually pull out the win. Cristian Mena has a tough challenge here, coming up from AAA, where he has struggled mightily against lefties, allowing a .319 average with 11 home runs surrendered in just 30 innings. Freeman, Ohtani and the other Dodgers lefties should have at least a couple at bats here against an arm they certainly should be able to handle. Despite not getting walks included here, at plus odds I like backing Freeman here to go over.

Freddy Freeman has exceeded 1.5 total bases in seven of his last ten games. He has a slugging percentage of .537 at Dodger Stadium and .574 against right-handed pitchers. The warmer weather in southern California makes Chavez Ravine a more favorable park for hitters. According to my model, I project 2.31 total bases, so this plus money line is a terrific value play.

Gavin Stone is starting to look like the next ace for the Dodgers. The Diamondbacks got to him a little bit the last time they faced him but he's been awesome since then. Stone is consistent -- a 1.97 ERA in May and 1.97 in June. I suspect he will be great in July, too, starting with an Arizona team that hasn't been able to impact the ball the way it did last year. Dodgers are 12-3 when he starts and have won six straight and five of them by two or more runs. Overall, 10 of their 12 wins with him on the mound have been by multiple runs. Dodgers can win this close or big but I like them to cover.