KC ropes at home and they have their ace on the bump. Let’s isolate the Royals at home and early. First 5 ML

Feels like I've gotten about four Rays games in a row wrong over a week-plus, but they appear to be at a major pitching disadvantage tonight with Zack Littell at 0-2 with a 5.13 ERA on the road and KC's Brady Singer at 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA at home. The Royals have won 5 of 7 games on this homestand. Their 30 home wins lead the AL and trail only Philadelphia (33) in the majors. Vinnie Pasquantino has recorded at least 1 RBI in all 7 games on this homestand, during which he’s batting .407 (11-for-27) with 3 home runs, 9 RBI and a 1.192 OPS. I'll take the RL insurance even though I think KC should be about -140.

Kansas City has won four of its last five. They’re hitting .291 with a .864 OPS over its last seven days. Zack Littell has pitched better of late but still owns a 5.13 road ERA. Each bullpen own an ERA above four and the Rays have been hitting righties better on the road over the last two week, .263 average with a .791 OPS. Tampa Bay could find more success against this Royals bullpen as compared to Brady Singer’s 2.80 home ERA.

Royals starter Brady Singer hasn't recorded a win since May 19, but he's at home Tuesday where he's 4-2 with a 2.80 ERA. He also fared well when he faced the Rays on May 25 in Tampa, allowing one earned run over five innings. Tampa Bay starter Zack Littell has been lit up on the road, with a 5.13 ERA and a .527 slugging percentage allowed. K.C. is 30-16 at home, where Bobby Witt sports a 1.077 OPS. The Royals own a 4.31 bullpen ERA since June 1, so I'm isolating the first five innings.

Zack Littell has pitched much better at home than on the road this season. He has a 5.13 ERA with opponents batting .338 in road tilts. At home, he owns a 3.57 ERA with an average against of .250. Brady Singer has a 2.80 ERA with an average against of .206 at home. He owns a 51.2% ground ball rate compared to Zack’s 33.2% ground ball rate, a significant edge in a hitter-friendly park like Kaufman Stadium. The Royals home park ranks fourth in hits and runs since 2022. I like the Royals in this spot.