New York is 10-0-1 to the over against divisional opponents on the road. Over the past month, the Mets are hitting .350 with a 1.114 OPS against lefties on the road. Then why is the total juiced to the under? Mackenzie Gore faced New York in early June, allowing six runs in 4.1 innings. Since that start, Gore has allowed four runs at home in 17 innings. David Peterson pitches better on the road, 2.84 ERA, and the Nationals haven’t fared well against lefties this season, hitting .230 with a .636 OPS. The obvious play is the over with New York’s offense, so we’ll take the contrarian route.

Not often I fully align with several of my fellow experts but man this one is attractive. I commend others for getting it cheaper but still…until it’s lowered “everyone in the pool”

The Mets have bludgeoned their way back into the NL playoff picture, with only one scoreline in their last 12 landing below eight runs, so we don't mind giving the "total" a hard look. In the past week, it's also been a homer barrage for New York, with Brandon Nimmo going deep again on Sunday against Houston. The Mets have recorded 44 runs over their last six contests. Nine or more runs were scored in all three games between these teams in Washington last month, and Washington's MacKenzie Gore has struggled lately (6.30 ERA over his last two starts).

New York's surge began four weeks ago with a three-game sweep in Washington. Although the Mets have slipped back below .500 after losing the last two against Houston over the weekend, the indicators are still good, especially when going with David Peterson. They won all four of his June starts, including one at Nationals Park in which he allowed just two runs over 6 2/3 innings. Meanwhile, Washington's MacKenzie Gore had a pretty bumpy June, posting a 5.13 ERA. He was knocked around by the Mets on June 7, when he yielded six runs on seven hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings of an eventual 8-7 loss.

Joining my colleague Propstarz here, as a small slate has provided limited options. We played the under on Framber Valdez against this Mets lineup Saturday and you have to keep fading strikeouts for lefties facing New York right now. JD Martinez was almost a problem for us vs. Valdez, as he struck out twice, but the rest of the lineup only accounted for three strikeouts from 24 batters faced. They put up 10 hits and six runs in that effort, and MacKenzie Gore is at risk of a similar fate here. The Mets did have to travel and Gore has some fairly solid strikeout metrics but I still think the line should be 5.5 so I'll take the under.

This looks like a fantastic spot to fade MacKenzie Gore who is having a fine season but has no business opening at 6.5 Ks, especially considering the matchup is against a scorching Mets lineup. Speaking up New Yorks lineup, they sports the 5th lowest K rate, in addition to the 4th highest OPS against opposing southpaw hurlers. I would also offer that Gore's strikeout numbers are fairly predictable in that he tends to pile up good results against teams with top 10 K Rates and struggles against the stingier lineups. The Mets also have excellent lifetime numbers including a start in early June where Gore went just 4.1 IP and struck out 2 batters. This checks all the boxes for me.