Aaron Judge will be back in the Yankees lineup today which spells bad news for Orioles starter Cole Irvin. Irvin has pitched well this season but I would argue hes pitched above his head/expectations and is a regression candidate. Facing a healthy Yankees lineup featuring as much as power as team in the MLB, I will be surprised if Irvin makes it into the 6th.

Pretty simple here: Was playing Yanks if Aaron Judge returned from a one-game absence and wasn't if not. He's in there. To no surprise, the Bombers lost last night without him. Judge apparently was really PO'd about being hit on the hand by a pitch so he should be very motivated today to punish the Orioles. There are going to be some on-field tensions, for sure, after NYY got payback last night. Cole Irvin has been great for the O's but perhaps starting to fade finally, and a few Yankees have very good if limited splits off him -- Judge is 2-for-4 with a homer. AL ROY favorite Luis Gil starts for the Yanks and has been phenomenal.

Cole Irvin got off to a hot start for Baltimore, but his trajectory had regression written all over it. We've already seen some of that regression over his last couple of starts and now he must walk into Yankee stadium and go up against the Yankees lineup and an extremely hot Luis Gil. Gil has been great all season and while this Orioles lineup is dangerous, I expect him to fare far better than Irvin.

This is the rubber match between the Orioles and the Yankees and the Yankees have their young Ace on the mound. Luis Gil has won his last nine starts for the Yankees. Four of those starts have seen him allow no runs, four have seen him allow one run, and one has seen him allow three runs. He wins almost every time so I’m riding and Cole Irvin has shown that he's giving up more than lately after a succession of wins. Yankees win.

The Yankees are tied for the MLB lead in runs while the Orioles are next. The two teams combined for 13 runs last night and both bullpens are vulnerable in several spots. I expect Aaron Judge to rejoin the Yankees' lineup and that always helps hit an over. Cole Irvin is on the hill for the Orioles and he's due regression (3.07 ERA vs. 4.37 xERA, for example) while Luis Gil and his 2.03 ERA goes for the Yankees. What he's doing looks legit and there are plenty of reasons to believe it keeps up, but he's never been this good before and he's 26. Now that the Orioles have already seen him (he dominated them May 1), it's possible they'll get better looks.