Gunnar Henderson vs a bad RH pitcher with him team in a bit of a slump looks great to me. Should be back in his comfortable leadoff spot today. Taijuan Walker stinks and gives up a ton of fly balls and 28 HR since start of last season. Gunnar is due to run into one. Henderson leads MLB (by far) with 35% of all flyballs he hits at home going for a tater. Next closest is Ohtani at 29%. O's due to break out of offensive rut

The O's faced NL CY Young favorites Reynaldo Lopez and Ranger Suarez within 18 hours. But I don't see them losing a third straight at home here vs the weak link in the Phillies rotation. Phillies have only played 13 games vs teams .500 or better, fewest in MLB. O's are battled tested. Phils without 3 of best hitters, and fulltime catcher. Grayson Rodriguez has 2.12 ERA at home and 1.88 in day games. BAL has hit 17 more HR in day games than any MLB team and OPS is 30 points better than any team in day games. BAL 6-3 ATS last 9 day games. Gunnar Henderson will tag Taijuan Walker early. Walker has allowed 28 HRs since start of '23

Yesterday's Phillies-Orioles game went to 11 innings, putting even more pressure on a Phillies bullpen that had to clean up for starters going no more than four innings in the previous two games. That could lead to Walker being left in no matter how he's faring. But even if he doesn't go Over 16.5 outs, I like his chances to get to four Ks as he's done in seven of eight starts. The Orioles rank just 13th in strikeouts per game, and their rate against righties would need just 17 batters faced to get over 3.5 Ks. Walker has faced 23 batters in six of his eight starts and 20 in another, so I like his chances to get to four Ks today.