San Fran shouldn't be this big of a home underdog to a Reds team that just snapped an eight-game skid. Nick Lodolo has given up an alarming amount of hard contact the past two starts. Rookie Mason Black, facing a scuffling Cincy offense, has a chance to dominate in his first home start.

The Cincinnati Reds took game one over the San Francisco Giants as underdogs. Now the pendulum has swung in the market as big road favorites over the Giants. San Francisco’s starting pitcher in Mason Black struggled in his first start against the Phillies, surrendering five runs with three walks. Expect the Reds to build their first winning streak in five series. Take the Reds over the Giants

Mason Black got to four strikeouts against the Phillies in his debut, but that came with a ton of pressure as family, friends, and college coaches were all in attendance. The close-to-home debut for Black didn't pan out as he had hoped, but he threw well for the first four innings before it all unraveled in the 5th thanks to a Bryce Harper home run. I'm not really convinced he has the length to go much beyond five innings but I do believe we have some value on this number at +133 for a 5th strikeout against this Reds team in San Fran. Worth a half unit in my opinion!

Mason Black ran into trouble in his first MLB start the third time through the order, but he had put together a strong performance before hitting that wall. The Giants encouragingly gave him a chance to work through it and post his highest pitch count of the season. He'll have a better matchup today against a Reds offense that has cratered in May (.527 OPS) and has the fourth most strikeouts per game on the season. Black owns an 11.0 K/9 rate in his minor-league career, and I don't believe that type of pitcher should be heavily favored to stay under 4.5 Ks in a plus matchup.

This kid slings it from the left side and can punch you out with velo or vertical break and some horizontal stuff, too. He can get into a mode where he's hunting Ks and he tends to get them. Has looked stout vs some strong lineups. Getting away from his home bandbox is huge - Lodolo has 21 Ks in 2 road games (12 2/3 IP). Los Gigantes don't K a ton but this also is not a very high number for Lodolo in good form

The Reds are certainly scuffling, and injuries have taken their toll but Los Gigantes have issues scoring runs and winning games, too. I love the nasty lefty the Reds are running out there and SF is 21st in MLB in OPS vs lefties. The Giants young starter is getting whacked around. Reds have won 4 of Lodolo's 5 starts, all by at least 3 runs