We had success with this prop yesterday despite +123 odds, attacking a Mariners team with the highest strikeout rate in the majors. Jordan Wicks cashed with six Ks in just four innings as the M's were struck out 11 times. Shota Imanaga has 12 Ks in 10 shutout innings while allowing only four hits, with only Mother Nature slowing him down (just four IP in his last start). He should feast on this lineup, and I feel again this prop should be much closer to even odds, so let's take the value vs. the Mariners for a second straight day.

Shota Imanaga is one of my favorite pitchers. He was one of my pre-season longshots to win Cy Young. He throws a splitter with a 68.4% whiff rate. While his expected metrics imply he's gotten a little bit lucky -- likely because he's new to the MLB -- they are still above-average numbers. His .103 wOBA after throwing 10 shutout innings is in the top 1% of the league.

The Cubs pitching edge gets even stronger in the best pitching environment in baseball. Emerson Hancock should struggle with this Cubs lineup. I have Chicago winning 59 percent of simulations which suggests they should be -144.

The Cubs are the better, deeper team. Seattle is already pressing at the plate and their offensive woes from a year ago are back. Their starter, Emerson Hancock, looks to me, even watching in the minors, like the rare recent whiff by this org on a top college arm. If he gets in fastball counts he's cooked. Cubbies playing solid ball and I think Shota Imanaga will give M's trouble from the left side.