The Dodgers should do some damage tonight and I love what Hernandez is doing from the 6-hole with all these dudes in front of him who get on base a ton. He knows this starter well from his time in the AL and he likes hitting in this park (13 RBI in 20 career GS). Quietly has 14 RBI already this season, leading the Dodgers.

The Twins remain pretty banged up in the outfield and bullpen, and I sure don't think much of starting pitcher Bailey Ober, who was obliterated in his season debut in Kansas City. A few regulars are getting today off for Minnesota as well led by usual leadoff hitter Edouard Julien. I will try and keep track of what the Dodgers do after bad losses this season because they come off an ugly defeat at the Cubs on Sunday. I know last year the Dodgers were great after losses. At least the LA bullpen was reset with Sunday's game out of hand.

Shohei Ohtani has recorded four straight games with at least two total bases. In total, he is batting .320 with two home runs, five doubles and one triple this season. Up next is a matchup against Bailey Ober, who doesn’t walk many batters. For his career, he has just a 5.0 percent walk rate. However, he has allowed 1.5 HR/9 and a 10.4 percent barrel rate for his career. Look for Ohtani to do damage at the plate and hit this over.

I have the Dodgers winning 60 percent of simulations in this matchup which implies this money line should be -150. Bailey Ober is still overvalued in this matchup as he tends to give up a lot of hard contact through the air. Look for a nice offensive day from the Dodgers.

Bailey Ober is coming off his worst career start, but it's the metrics from his previous three seasons that are a concern. His season barrel rate has never been below 9.5%, and his average launch angle against (19.5-20 degrees) is ideal for a well-hit ball. That is a problem against a powerful Dodgers lineup. He may also be a little out of routine, as his scheduled start for Sunday was postponed. For a better price bet the Dodgers TT o4.5 runs (-111).