In a potential close out game look for the Atlanta Braves to stave off elimination. Spencer Strider had been 4-0 on the year against the Philadelphia Phillies until Saturday’s playoff opener. He pitched strong enough to have the win but received no run support, which happened just once in the regular season. Take Atlanta as the big road favorite.

The Braves are on the brink of elimination. The last time Spencer Strider pitched in Philadelphia in the playoffs, he allowed five earned runs in 2.1 innings. The Phillies fans are going to be even louder for this game, as Strider stated he would rather pitch in empty stadiums. All the momentum is on Philadelphia’s side and even if they get down, they’re never out of it. Ranger Suarez might not go long, especially if he gets into trouble, but he has won three of his last four starts against the Braves.

While the MLB regular season is a marathon, the playoffs are a sprint. A hot bat or two can spell the difference. At the moment, the hot bats belong to the Phils, especially Bryce Harper, who banged two homers in game 3 on Wednesday, but count others in a 6-homer barrage. That's not likely to recur vs. Spencer Strider, but Philly did already beat Strider once in this series behind Ranger Suarez, and momentum is clearly on the side of the Phils, who seem built for the modern MLB postseason, and also seem to have the Braves' number after taking them out in similar fashion last postseason.

As mentioned on Early Edge this morning, I don't like the Braves' demeanor. They are, as people like to say, shook. You've got Travis d'Arnaud out here blaming the media for betraying the "sanctuary" that is the clubhouse. C'mon. We get plus money thanks to Spencer Strider getting the ball, but the Phillies won this same matchup in Game 1 in Atlanta. The raucous Philly crowd feeds them. They're gonna do it.

Elimination games tend to be lower scoring because managers are prepared to empty the bullpen. I fully expect Ranger Suarez's night to be fairly short for the Phillies as they try to end it here and save ace Zack Wheeler for Game 1 of the NLCS. ATL's Spencer Strider has dominated the Phillies this year and career (allowed 2 ER or fewer in 7 of 9 outings). This same pitching matchup saw a 3-0 final score in Game 1. Half unit.

The Phillies don't need a long outing from Ranger Suarez, who tossed 3.2 scoreless innings in Game 1. Their top bullpen arms are ready behind him after Wednesday's blowout win. For the Braves, the pressure is on ace Spencer Strider to pitch a masterpiece. Atlanta has scored just seven runs in the series after being on cruise control for most of September. Look for the Phillies to close it out at home.

The Phillies have a chance to eliminate the Braves on Thursday without having to travel back to Atlanta for Game 5. Facing Spencer Strider isn’t ideal and he held them to two runs (one earned) over seven innings in Game 1. However, the Phillies still won with Ranger Suarez and their bullpen combining to throw a shutout. Suarez will be back on the mound for Game 4 and the Phillies have a well-rested bullpen, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them win. I’ll take a more conservative approach and take them to cover the runline.

Guess we get why Atlanta is favored behind Spencer Strider, but the Phillies beat him in Game 1 and they have easily been the better team in this series other than for maybe two innings. It should be Ranger Suarez for Philadelphia, but like Game 1 he should have a very short leash. Manager Rob Thomson didn't use any of his high-leverage relievers in tonight's blowout. This series feels almost exactly like the 2022 NLDS won by the Phils in 4.