New York’s Domingo German makes his first start since his perfect game. It’s understandable for wanting to fade German in this spot. However, over the last seven days, the Orioles are hitting .159 with a .494 OPS. Baltimore’s Tyler Wells has faced the Yankees twice this season and has allowed nine earned runs in 11 innings of work. Even without Aaron Judge, New York is hitting .263 with a .746 OPS over their last seven days.

Congratulations to Domingo German on his perfect game the last time out, but he's still an average pitcher. He's just one who got to face the worst team in baseball and had a great time doing so. German allowed 15 runs in 5.1 innings over his previous two starts, and I'm betting we see a lot more of that guy than Mr. Perfect.

The Orioles have lost four of their last five and they scored only three runs in a three-game series at home against the Twins. Best thing to change the vibe is hit the road – to get away. The Orioles start a road trip at Yankee Stadium and will face Domingo German who comes off a perfect game. German had allowed 17 runs in his two previous starts before mowing down the A’s. I bet the Orioles behind Tyler Wells.

Yankees pitcher Domingo German is coming off a perfect game against the Oakland A's. He threw a season-high 99 (tied) pitches. Take the road team in a clear fade situation.

I like the Orioles to bounce back after losing four of their last five games. Baltimore has scored just three runs over their last three games but I like their chances of having success against Domingo German. German is coming off a perfect game versus the A's however pitchers tend to struggle in their following start after having no hitters/perfect games. Tyler Wells will be on the hill for Baltimore and the third year pitcher has quietly been outstanding this season. He has gotten lit up twice by the Yankees but both games Aaron Judge was active and the Yankees offense has been a shell of itself with Judge on the shelf. I think Baltimore's bats wake up tonight and the Orioles grab a win.

Getting a home dog is always fun. Even better, the Yankees are covering in 73% of my model's simulations. There's some serious juice here, but that success rate makes it worth the squeeze. We certainly shouldn't expect Domingo German to throw another perfect game -- the O's aren't the A's, to say the least -- but he should put in some work.