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Nolan Gorman is not in the lineup tonight for St. Louis. The Cardinals come off getting swept in Pittsburgh and now have to face the Texas Rangers who are hitting .281 with a .857 OPS at home this season against righties. St. Louis’ Adam Wainwright has allowed nine total runs in 10.2 innings in his first two road starts this season. The Cardinals do hit lefties well, but over their last seven days, they’re only hitting .221 with a .684 OPS.
At 41 years old, Adam Wainwright is nearing the end of the line. He has a 6.15 ERA and his expected numbers say that's no fluke. Now he faces MLB's top offense versus right-handed pitching. Texas is averaging an insane 7.15 runs at home. Back the Rangers to improve to 9-1 in their last 10 meetings with the Cards.
The Cardinals are the worst series-opening team in the majors this season at 4-15, minus-17 units and a minus-66.9% ROI. Adam Wainwright perhaps should have retired this winter as he has a 6.15 ERA. Nolan Gorman (.270, 14 HR, 44 RBIs) is out of the lineup for STL. Rangers lefty Martin Perez is 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA at home.
Martin Perez bends but doesn’t break. He gives up some runs but the Rangers still win the games. They’re 8-3 behind him this season which is almost a carbon copy of what he did last season. At home, Perez is at his best with a 3-0 record and a 1.93 ERA. The Rangers have won his last three and the bats come out when he starts – seven or more runs scored in six of his last eight starts. The Cardinals just got swept in Pittsburgh. Bet against the Cardinals in the first game of a series has been the move. Rangers to win.
The Cardinals have lost seven of their last 10 games to drop them into last place in the NL Central. Their lineup is hurting with their entire starting outfield on the IL. That’s not good for their chances of keeping pace with a Rangers team that has scored the most runs in baseball. The Rangers could really score in bunches against Adam Wainwright, who has a 6.15 ERA and a 1.71 WHIP over five starts. The Rangers are also 19-8 at home, so I like their chances to improve on that record.