Might be my first Marlins ML play of the year. Might be my last depending. They are much better than I thought they would be, especially with Sandy Alcantara taking a big step back. Miami is 18-13 at home and has won eight of its last 10 there. It's southpaw Braxton Garrett on the bump today. He has allowed two earned or fewer in four straight. Kansas City is 5-12 in its past 17 vs. a lefty.

Monday, the Miami Marlins will host their third straight consecutive home series. They will face a Kansas City Royals team that has the second fewest wins in MLB with eighteen. This could be an overvalued spot as the Marlins still rank just 26th in runs. Take the Royals to pull off the win against the overpriced Marlins.

Miami's offense has come alive over the last month, but I like Kansas City's opener-bulk man combo of Carlos Hernandez and Mike Mayers. They should be able to contain the red-hot Marlins bats while the K.C. lineup goes to work on Braxton Garrett, whose peripherals don't paint a completely rosy story. The Royals are covering in 67% of my model's simulations.

The Marlins are only four games in the loss column behind the Braves for the lead in the NL East. They have played particularly well at home, posting an 18-13 record there. Starting for them against the Royals will be Braxton Garrett, who has allowed two or fewer runs in nine of his 11 outings this season. Combine that with the Royals having a 9-18 record on the road and this is a favorable spot for the Marlins to earn a victory.