The Pirates lost their home opener yesterday, but I think they should be able to at least pull out one win this series. Kyle Hendricks looked very good on Opening Day, but he is a feel pitcher, so he can be completely on one day then completely off the next. He actually faced the Pirates 5 times last season and he didn’t pitch particularly well in any of them. Zach Thompson came over from the Marlins in the Jacob Stallings trade and he actually faced the Cubs twice last season. He didn’t allow a hit in 4 IP when he faced the Cubs early in the season before they traded all their players, then he also allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP against the thinner Cubs later in the season. The Cubs used all their top bullpen arms in the win yesterday and they seriously struggled on the road last season at 32-49. I like the value in the home dog.

Getting Pittsburgh on the runline is only 20 cents more than backing the Cubs on the moneyline (-129). Chicago's best pitcher is Kyle Hendricks and he was great in his season debut at Wrigley, but Hendricks has traditionally struggled on the road and the Pirates hammered him last year to the tune of a 6.66 ERA in five starts. Zach Thompson makes his Pittsburgh debut and he had a 3.24 ERA last year with Miami. He posted a 1.57 ERA in six appearances during the afternoon. The Bucs' Bryan Reynolds has gone 15-for-28 (.536) in his last nine game played at PNC Park.

The Cubs have won 10 of the past 11 meetings, and I'll take them at this reasonable price to continue their dominance over Pittsburgh. Zach Thompson makes his Pirates' debut and should be a solid addition, but the Cubs should get to Pittsburgh's shaky bullpen (4.58 ERA). Chicago's Kyle Hendricks enters in excellent form after fanning seven in 5.1 innings vs. Milwaukee. The Cubs have gotten a much-needed spark from Japanese star Seiya Suzuki, who's 5 for 12 with three homers and eight RBI. With manager David Ross returning from a one-game suspension, I'll back the Cubbies to improve to 4-1 this season.

These NL Central rivals close out their quick two-game set with a Wednesday matinee and the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks scheduled to be opposed by the Pirates' Zach Thompson. My model has the Pirates covering +1.5 on the runline (-145) in 63 percent of simulations.