You're going to see a lot of very true and very statistics going into this World Cup Final. One of the scariest statistics is the fact that Spain have conceded only a single goal over their eight matches. That is 100% a true statistic, and everyone is using that, understandably, as an argument to a low scoring match. I don't care. I just don't. This is a final. I understand Spain defense is good but Argentina are a team that need just one inch or one tiny mistake to punish you. I think we'll see a very slow 30 minutes, followed by 90 minutes of electricity.
This is a strategic bet for me and I wouldn't be shocked in the slightest if this ends up being a push. This is a World Cup final between two teams that have shown they are capable of grinding this game to a stall if needed. Argentina played England incredibly close for the first 45 while Spain still boasts the best defense in the world. For me, this match is a 49-51 coin toss in Argentina's favor, so I love taking plus money on DNB for a match that I have either ending in a 1-1 draw at regulation, or 2-1 Argentina.
This feels like a match that stays under. Spain have looked almost untouchable defensively. They held Portugal to 0.6 xG, Belgium to 0.32 xG, and France to 0.3 xG, keeping clean sheets in two of those three matches. They’ve conceded just one goal the entire tournament. Argentina have shown time and time again that you can never count them out, but I think they know their best path to another World Cup is to keep this match tight and avoid mistakes. The longer this stays 0-0, the more Argentina have to like their chances. It has all the makings of a tense, tactical final with very few clear cut chances.
Spain won their last three games in regulation time, despite playing against three of the world’s best teams: France, Belgium, and Portugal. The Spaniards are on a six-game winning streak, and they’ll be full of confidence after absolutely dominating France in the semifinals. They look vastly superior to Argentina in midfield. Of course, Argentina have elite attackers, but so do France, and the likes of Mbappé, Dembélé, and Olise couldn’t create anything against this relentless Spain team. They’re so neat and tidy in possession, and so disciplined and well-drilled out of possession, so they should win this game pretty comfortably.
I was hoping it was England's year but hard to beat the unstoppable Lionel Messi in his final WC game against the impenetrable Spanish defense. It’s the first time since the FIFA rankings began in 1992 that the top-two teams in the world will meet in the World Cup final. Spain is the first team to get this far since Italy in 2006 while only allowing one goal in the entire tournament. The final is usually low scoring (cautious clubs in the first half) .... just not the past two. But those each involved France.
