Brandt's Picks (1 Live)
A star-studded affair between France and Norway could be one of the most entertaining matches of the entire World Cup. France's attack is led by Kylian Mbappe, who has scored 16 goals in 16 appearances at the World Cup. Erling Haaland leads Norway's attack, and the Manchester City man has scored a brace in each of his first two World Cup appearances. With first place in Group I on the line, I expect both teams to press forward and create plenty of scoring opportunities, making it worth backing Over 3.5 goals at plus-money here.
Sweden have had a "Jekyll and Hyde" showing thus far at the World Cup, beating Tunisia 5-1, before losing 5-1 to the Netherlands. Despite the lopsided scoreline against the Dutch, Sweden still created plenty of scoring opportunities, finishing with 10 shots on goal. Japan have also been involved in high-scoring affairs in this competition, a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands and a 4-0 win over Tunisia. I expect we'll see another entertaining affair when these two nations collide in Dallas.
Norway's attack is spearheaded by arguably the most lethal goal scorer in the game. Erling Haaland has scored 57 international goals in 51 appearances for Norway, and he scored a brace in his first-ever World Cup appearance last week. Haaland should have success against a Senegal side that will be pressing for a positive result after suffering a 3-1 defeat against France. Over 2.5 goals have been scored in three of Senegal's past four matches, a trend I expect to continue against Norway.
Sweden showed their offensive prowess with a 5-1 thumping of Tunisia in the group-stage opener. Sweden's attack is spearheaded by two of the Premier League's top strikers in Liverpool's Alexander Isak and Arsenal's Viktor Gyökeres, both of whom found the back of the net against Tunisia. The Netherlands also boast a potent attack capable of producing quality in the final third, and the Dutch's backline proved to be vulnerable in their 2-2 draw against Japan. This match could go a long way in determining who tops Group F, so I expect we'll see an entertaining affair with plenty of goals.
Morocco nearly upset Brazil in the opener and will need to secure three points against Scotland if they want to top Group C. Scotland beat Haiti 1-0 in the opener but were outshot 13-8. Morocco's squad is filled with experienced players, and I expect the African side to claim victory on Friday.
New Zealand is the lowest-ranked team at the World Cup, and the All Whites limp into this competition having failed to score in each of their past three games. Iran, meanwhile, will be playing with a chip on its shoulder given all the adversity it's faced to get here. Plus, Iran has been playing well leading up to this clash, losing just three of its last 12 games.
Qatar have failed to score in their past three games, which doesn’t bode well against a Switzerland side that is loaded with quality, including Granit Xhaka, who has 145 caps for the national team. Switzerland won UEFA Group B during World Cup qualifying with a +9 goal differential. I expect the Swiss to secure all three points in this matchup, beating Qatar by at least two goals in the process.
Mexico have been spectacular defensively leading up to the World Cup, conceding just two goals across their past eight matches. El Tri are coming off a convincing victory in their final tune-up, cruising to a 5-1 victory over Serbia on June 4. South Africa are winless in their past five matches overall, and now they’ll face a raucous crowd in Mexico City. I’m backing Mexico to secure a comfortable victory in front of their home fans in the opener.
These two international heavyweights have routinely met in the World Cup, and each of their last two World Cup meetings have ended in a 0-0 draw. The Netherlands also enter Friday’s quarterfinal unbeaten in their last 19 matches across all competitions and they've lost just one of their nine encounters against Argentina in regular time. I think we'll see a close match on Friday that could easily be decided in extra time, one of the main reasons why I’m backing the Dutch +0.5 (-140) in this matchup.
Belgium has been a major disappointment through the first two games in Qatar. The Red Devils beat Canada in the opener but were outshot 22-9, then suffered a 2-0 setback against Morocco. Croatia dominated the Canadians on Sunday, recording 10 shots on target in a 4-1 victory. The Croats made it to the final in 2018, and they know they need a result to guarantee a spot in the next round. Belgium may be the higher ranked team in this matchup, but the Croats are the far better side. I love the value we’re getting at +170.
France have already qualified for the knockout stage after winning their first two matches. Only a point is needed for Les Bleus to advance as group winners, but I expect Didier Deschamps’ men will want to maintain their confidence. Tunisia needs a win to reach the next round, so they’ll be throwing numbers forward, which doesn’t bode well with Kylian Mbappe’s pace and finishing ability. Mbappe has recorded 3 goals and 1 assist in Qatar, and the French have scored 6 goals in two games, the second-most of any team. Tunisia have failed to score in their first two matches, one of the main reasons I like France -1.5 (+145).
Tunisia showcased their defensive prowess in the 0-0 draw against Denmark. Tunisia suffered a 5-1 loss in a friendly against Brazil in September, but if you take away that game, Jalel Kadri’s men haven’t conceded a goal since January. And while Australia jumped out to a 1-0 lead over France in their opener, the Aussies finished the game with just one shot on target. I’m expecting this match to be a cagey affair as both sides lack true goal scoring threats. It’s a steep price at -165, but I’m confident this game stays Under 2.5.
France’s attack looked sensational in the opener against Australia as Oliver Giroud and Kylian Mbappe combined for three goals in the 4-1 victory. However, the French haven’t fared well against the Dutch recently, going winless in their last three meetings against Denmark. Five of the last seven games between these teams have produced Under 2.5 goals. France and Denmark squared off in the group stage at the 2018 World Cup, a game which ended in a 0-0 draw. I’m expecting history to repeat itself as we see another low-scoring affair between these two countries. I'm taking Under 2.5 at -140, but I think it's worth backing even as high as -150.
Argentina suffered a shocking upset against Saudi Arabia in their opener, which spells trouble for Mexico. Argentina had multiple goals disallowed in the first half of their 2-1 setback, and the South American side has dominated this series over the years. In fact, Argentina have won eight of their last nine games against Mexico. El Tri lacks a true No. 9, which was evident against Poland after Mexico managed just four shots on target despite holding over 60% of possession. Look for Lionel Messi to lead Argentina to their first victory at the 2022 World Cup.
I loved what I saw from Senegal in their opening match, despite suffering a 2-0 setback against the Netherlands. Senegal gave up just three shots on target, while outshooting the Dutch 15-10. Meanwhile, Qatar were outclassed in their opener against Ecuador, even with the backing of the home crowd. The Qataris have now been shutout in three of their last four games in all competitions, and I think Senegal will dictate the pace of play and create enough chances to secure the victory.