Expert Picks
This pains me a little because I root for Canada in almost every international competition if not playing the USA. And if this match were in Canada, then no bueno. But it's in Houston. I don't think there is really much argument that Morocco is better (24 spots higher in world rankings), it's just a matter of whether we get stung with a regulation draw. But I really can't justify Canada +0.5, either. Note that I am considering this a moneyline play through extra time (to avoid said sting) and not 90 minutes.
Canada has had a great run in this World Cup, but I don't see them winning this match against an experienced Moroccan side. Morocco outshot the Netherlands, 11-6, in the Round of 32, and bolsters a backline that has given up three or fewer shots in target in each of their past three fixtures. Morocco defeated Canada at the 2022 World Cup, and with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line this time around, I expect Morocco to secure the win again in Houston.
Once again, I’m left impressed with this Morocco team. They play with a tenacity and physicality that can be suffocating, but what’s really exciting is how dynamic the attack looks. That’s something they’ve missed over the last few years. Canada have made a great run, but the turnovers worry me, especially the ones that come from dribble attempts and sloppy touches. They need to move the ball quicker and avoid getting stuck in possession. If they think Morocco are going to give them space to operate, they’re mistaken. Morocco are the better team on paper, and I think that wins out.
Morocco are on a long unbeaten streak, and these players know how to grind out results in big games. They did well to get past the Netherlands in the previous round, so they should be full of confidence right now. Canada aren’t playing on home soil anymore, so this could be the end of the road for them. They deserve a great deal of credit for getting this far, but Morocco have enough quality to beat them in Houston this weekend. It’s unlikely to be a high-scoring game, as the Moroccans are solid in defense, and the Atlas Lions should edge it.