Claudia's Past Picks
Tucker Kraft is the Packers leading receiver, with the 6th highest target share of any TE. Head coach Matt LaFleur talked in the offseason about giving Kraft more opportunities in the intermediate and deep parts of the field and we're seeing that early. Last season he had 10 total targets of 10+ yards and this season he already has 7 through 6 games. He's averaging over 14 yards a catch, coming off a 10 target game, and we've already seen what the ceiling can look like with a 124 yard game vs. the Commanders in Week 2. The Steelers are allowing over 8 targets and 6 catches a game to tight ends, resulting in the 5th most yards (67.17).
The Cowboys have found real momentum on offense — leading the league in yards per game and averaging over six yards per play. They’ve also been one of the most efficient teams in the red zone, scoring the second-most points per game (31.7). Dallas has hit this team total in all but one of its last six games, with Dak Prescott throwing at least three touchdowns in four straight. He ranks 3rd in DVOA vs. man coverage, facing a Denver defense that is fist in frequency of man coverage. The Broncos’ defense has been stout, but their Week 7 performance against the Giants exposed plenty of busted coverages and missed tackles. They've allowed the 7th highest red zone scoring % over the last three weeks.
Goedert has had 23 targets the last three weeks, with the 4th highest tight end target share. The Giants allow over 9 targets a game to tight ends (fourth most) and 6 catches a game. With no AJ Brown on the field, he should have a big showing on TE Day.
Drake Maye is third in MVP odds, as he should be. He's leading the league in completion % and passer rating with over 91% completion percentage last week against the Titans. He his first in catchable air yards, has the best % on 20+ yard plays and leads the NFL in DVOA against man coverage -- which Cleveland schemes at the 11th highest rate.
The Jets are allowing over 26 points a game and now have Sauce Gardner and Cam Jones out. They've allowed five teams to cash this and now get a Flacco-led Bengals team who has cashed their team total in every home game, with the 3rd most points a game at home.
Dillon Gabriel makes his second start, and as we know, tight ends are a rookie QB's best friend. Last week, Njoku posted his highest target total of the season with nine, catching six passes for 67 yards and his first touchdown of the year. He nearly had more receptions than any other teammate had targets. This week’s matchup is ideal — the Steelers are surrendering over five catches per game to tight ends, ranking 10th in yards allowed to the position. We saw Viking's T.J. Hockenson have four grabs last week, plus Patriot's Hunter Henry had a dominant 8-catch, 90-yard, 2-touchdown outing earlier in the season. All signs point toward another big week for Njoku.
Herbert is going to have to use his legs this weekend as injuries continue to deplete the LA roster. He's now without his top RB in Omarion Hampton, top receiver Quentin Johnston is questionable and more importantly, his left tackle Joe Alt is out as well as their right tackle. Miami is allowing the 4th most QB rush attempts, yards, and the 4th highest scramble rate. He has cashed this line in all but one of the last 5 weeks, averaging almost 37 in that stretch. Expect him to be flushed out of the pocket early and often.
This line is as high as 239.5. We have a tight game script here which leads to plenty back and forth. The Jags are allowing the 2nd most attempts and 7th most completions, with over 250 yards a game. Sam Darnold is playing at an elite level -- top 3 in completion percentage and passer rating, leading in EPA per dropback and yards per attempt (9.3). He's throwing to one of the NFL's best in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has the 2nd most receiving yards in the NFL and he has an elite number two in Cooper Kupp. He also has TE AJ Barner who went 7 for 7 last week. Even better, they have a balanced offense with Walker and Charbonnett out of the backfield.
Dart has had back to back 50+ rush yard games, with the third highest scramble rate in the league. He's been efficient, averaging 5.7 yards a carry. Even with Jalen Carter banged up, Dart should see pressure as he tries to navigate, being down both WR Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton. Philly is forcing the 9th most scrambles.
Skattebo hasn't had a game with less than two - and that was with playing limited snaps. He has had 6 catches in two of the last three games, with 17 targets in that stretch. With Nabers and Slayton out, Dart should look to his safety blanket early and often.
We saw 80% of the Eagles plays last week be passing plays. Game script had a lot to do with that -- but even in their wins we have seen him cash this completions line. He's facing a Giants defense allowing the 4th most attempts and 6th most completions. This should be a breakout game for both the passing and run offense, and that balance should help us cash here.
The Rangers missed the playoffs last season after winning the Presidents’ Trophy the year before, and they’re coming out hungry. One of their hottest players is already making noise with seven shots on goal in the season opener against the Penguins. Now they face a Sabres team playing its first game, shaking off some rust, after allowing the 10th-most shots on goal last season. With the total set high at 6.5, there should be plenty of scoring chances on both ends. Expect heavy shot volume again from Zibanejad, who ranked third on the team in shots last season.
You should bet this at regulation, to get it down closer to (-120) odds. The B's should get the win in their home opener, against a Chicago team that's dead last in Stanley Cup odds. Boston is coming off a 3-1 road win over the Capitals with a strong showing from special teams. Goalie Jeremey Swayman's contract drama is behind him and he's ready to go after a full training camp. Chicago is the third youngest roster in the NHL with Spencer Knight in net who will be playing as a full-time starting goalie for the first time in his career. He faced 37 shots in his debut -- similar to the struggles last year's goalies faced, leading to the league's 2nd worst goal differential.
The Dodgers are a disciplined lineup, but Sanchez dominated them in Game One, striking out 8 in just 5⅔ innings. He cashed this line in both regular season starts, including 9 Ks in April. He ended the season with the seventh-most strikeouts among pitchers and a 2.50 ERA. He has elite swing-and-miss stuff and gets guys to chase. The depth should be there as well, helping us cash this over.
Etienne has been one of the most consistent players in the league through four weeks. He's top 10 in attempts per game, with 16 or more in all but week two -- which was their one loss. Still, he had 14, so just missing this line by the hook. The game spread tells us we should see a tight game and I think the Jags have a chance at winning outright. Regardless, when your running back has the the third most explosive run rate, you give them the ball. The chiefs rank bottom 10 in DVOA against the run.












