MGM / FD. After his 17 rebound plus assist performance in Game 1, Evan Mobley has recorded 9 and 8 in the following contests. Overall, he’s under this line in 10/17 playoff games, and 5/6 against the Knicks this season. New York is a tough opponent for big men rebounds and assists, and with the Cavs inserting Max Strus into the starting lineup, that adds a better rebounder and distributor than Dean Wade.
FanDuel (1.5u). Let’s continue to ride the Mikal Bridges wave for Game 4. The Knicks wing has now cleared this combined line in each of his last eight games, with 24+ PRA in each game this series. The Cavs do not have an answer for Bridges, who continues to move exceptionally well without the ball while being guarded by the Cavs weaker defenders (James Harden, Donovan Mitchell or Sam Merrill). With Bridges minutes up to 38-40, look for the wing to continue to produce. With at least 34 minutes played this season, Bridges has a 77% hit rate on this line. Play it up to 21.5 for a full unit.
FanDuel. With all of the injury uncertainty around the Spurs backcourt, Devin Vassell has emerged as a reliable scoring option on the wing. Vassell has 19+ points plus rebounds in each game this series, and has been a vital piece to the Spurs perimeter defensively. With De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper’s effectiveness both in question, I expect Vassell to continue to thrive against a Thunder defense that forces to action to spot up shooters.
FanDuel. I’ll gladly back Cason Wallace on his combined points, rebounds and assists line once again in Game 4. The defensive whiz stuffed the stat sheet with 20 PRA in 28 minutes in Game 3, his third straight game over this line. Ajay Mitchell has been ruled out, and Jalen Williams is questionable (and likely limited if he does go). Wallace, by virtue of his perimeter defense, will continue to see 24-28 minutes, and should keep helping to fill the offensive void left by his injured teammates (and Chet Holmgren).
DraftKings. Going to run back Jared McCain three pointers, which is now at 2.5 for Game 4. With Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams both ruled out, McCain should be relied on heavily to score. Having shot 19 threes over the last two games, I do like him to keep firing tonight. As a member of the Thunder, McCain has cleared this line in 9/14 games with at least 22 minutes played.
FanDuel. Hopping back on Mikal Bridges’ over for Game 3. The Knicks guard has recorded 22+ combined points, rebounds and assists in seven straight games, all in varying gamescripts. Atop of the minutes ladder right now (37 and 40 thus far this series), Bridges is playing some of his best basketball of the season. On the offensive end, he’s benefitted from the individual matchup of Donovan Mitchell and James Harden. When either are switched onto the primary action with Jalen Brunson, Bridges has done well to find the open space in the Knicks fluid offense. Take this over up to 19.5 with confidence.
FanDuel. Maybe I’m a glutton for punishment, but after watching Sam Merrill shoot 0/7 on threes in Game 2 (all deemed wide open per NBA tracking data), I’m counting on a bounceback in Game 3 at home. Merrill now has had 15 open three point attempts through the two games this series as the Knicks continue to prioritize stopping the initial action with James Harden or Donovan Mitchell. Merrill shot close to 45% at home from deep this season, and should be able to break through in an advantageous schematic matchup tonight.
DraftKings. Trying to figure out the rotation for the Thunder role players is about as fun as a trip to the dentist. OKC has utilized an 11-man rotation for the first two games of this series - almost unheard of in the playoffs. Cason Wallace has quietly carved out a sizeable role, playing 23 and 25 regulation minutes in the first two games. With Jalen Williams questionable, I like Wallace to continue to see 22-26 minutes, with upside, as he’s used as the primary defender on Stephon Castle (and the other Spurs ball-handlers). Wallace has made the most of his playing time with 14 and 20 PRA the last two games, and clearing this line in five of the last seven.
FanDuel. With Jalen Williams doubtful to suit up, another Thunder role player who should see more run is Jared McCain. The former Sixer recorded 26 minutes in Game 2 as an important spark plug off the bench, after Williams went down. More of a spot up threat from long range when playing alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell, McCain took nine threes in Game 2 out of his 14 total shots. When playing between 14 and 28 minutes this season, McCain has at least two three pointers made in 16/24 games as a member of the Thunder, including 4/5 in the playoffs.
FanDuel. Mikal Bridges has emerged for the Knicks, clearing this line in five of the last six games, including his 18-point, 5-rebound performance in Game 1 against the Cavaliers. Bridges has seemingly catapulted up Mike Brown’s trust tree, and should be in for another sizeable role in Game 2 (37 regulation minutes in Game 1). Bridges served as the primary defender on James Harden, with Josh Hart ceding his spot down the stretch to Landry Shamet. Bridges should be able to find spot up opportunities against a Cavs defense that was in the bottom seven against the playtype this season. And even with his late season struggles, Bridges still has a 67% hit rate on this line with 30+ minutes this season (47/69).
FanDuel. Sam Merrill came off the Cavs bench and delivered 12 points in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. With the Knicks defense predicated at sending doubles and hard hedges at James Harden, Merrill was the beneficiary with eight uncontested three pointers (per NBA tracking data). The Knicks were a catch and shoot funnel defensively all season, and seem more inclined to let the Cavs secondary scorers beat them. I’d bet this to over 8.5 at -105 or better.
FanDuel. It was easy to overlook Jalen Williams’ Game 1 performance. The Thunder wing returned from his hamstring injury to score 26 points and 7 rebounds (21 and 5 in regulation) in 37 minutes in the instant classic. With apologies to Alex Caruso, Williams was the most consistent cog in the Thunder offense. Chet Holmgren looks as if he’s going to struggle offensively in this matchup, and the Spurs will continue to gameplan to slow down Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Even if the latter fails, Williams (33% usage in Game 1) has more than enough runway to clear this line. Looking healthy, and with his minutes already fully built up, look for Williams to come out firing in Game 2.
FanDuel. One of the trends we saw in the first two rounds that I believe will carry over for the Knicks is Karl-Anthony Towns’ facilitating. Starting with Game 4 against the Hawks, Towns has seven straight games with at least six assists (let alone five). The Knicks tweaked their offense to use Towns as a hub - Towns passes per game are up in this span (36 per game compared to his average of 32), despite his minutes being down due to foul trouble and blowouts. The Cavs defense favors spot-up shooting as is, and the Knicks have now have had what’s felt like an eternity to refine the new wrinkle of their offense. Look for Towns to continue to thrive in his new role.
FanDuel. New series, new matchup, and I don’t love this one for Chet Holmgren. The Thunder big man has not historically acquitted himself well against the Spurs, who can match his length down low. Holmgren was under this line in each of the four regular season matchups against San Antonio. Jalen Williams is listed as available for Game 1 for OKC, who will continue to exploit the matchups they find favorable. I don’t see that involving Chet too much tonight. I’d bet this down to under 25.5.
FanDuel. Forgive me for copying and pasting my write-up from Game 6, but after a team-leading 8 boards in 29-minutes, we’re getting the exact same line on Max Strus’ rebounds for Game 7. He’s now recorded at least 5 rebounds in 16/25 games this season, including 4/6 this series. With the Cavs entrusting him to defend Cade Cunningham (and he has acquitted himself well in that role), he is continuing to see closing time minutes. Needed on the floor offensively for floor spacing, the high-energy veteran should continue to make an impact in Game 7. Look for Strus to clear this plus-money prop in a game where I expect both teams to shoot slightly worse than usual.