DraftKings / Caesar’s. Saddiq Bey has cleared this points line in 14 of his last 18 games without Dejounte Murray, who is resting tonight on the second leg of the back to back. I like the matchup for Bey against the defensive sieve of the Kings on the wing. Sacramento has been half decent at protecting the paint with Precious Achiuwa and Dylan Cardwell, posing a harder matchup for Zion Williamson. Bey and Trey Murphy (who has a balky ankle) should thrive in transition and behind the arc tonight.
FanDuel. Wendell Carter has cleared this line in 14 of the last 18 games against teams in the bottom ten at defending the restricted area - the Mavericks rank 28th in that department. Yes, many of those games were without Franz Wagner, who is back in the Magic lineup, but likely on a strict minutes limit. Carter has a decisive matchup down low against the Mavericks big men, and I expect him to see enough shot volume tonight.
FanDuel. With Moussa Diabete, Grant Williams and PJ Hall all ruled out, the Hornets will be very thin on the front line. Ryan Kalkbrenner, who has been playing well of late in his reserve role, should absorb most of the center minutes tonight, in a great matchup against the Pacers weak interior defense.
DraftKings. Tyrese Maxey is averaging 7.5 assists across the 33 games he’s played with Joel Embiid, clearing this line in 21 of those games. While the Timberwolves seem like a tougher assists matchup on the surface, allowing the 10th fewest per game, they’re actually a pick and roll funnel, allowing the 27th most points to roll-men. Embiid is the game’s pre-eminent scorer out of that playtype, with Maxey serving as his primary facilitator. With both guys back healthy and playing big minutes, look for Maxey to clear this line for the fourth straight game.
FanDuel. This is a sneaky spot for one of my early season favorites, Julian Champagnie. With Victor Wembanyama sitting this one out, Champagnie should see an uptick in usage and minutes. It’s a solid spot against the Clippers drop coverage defense - Champagnie should find open looks from long range. Not only is the versatile wing over in 9/15 games without Wemby this season, but he’s also been surprisingly solid in back to backs, clearing this line in 11/14. I’d bet this to over 16.5.
DraftKings. Toumani Camara is coming off 23 and 17 point performances, as he’s functioned as the primary spot up shooter for the Trail Blazers without Jerami Grant available. With Grant remaining out, I expect Camara to build on the 13/20 trend of clearing this line without him. Within that sample, Camara is over this line in 10/12 against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in catch and shoot points allowed - the Pelicans rank 26th in that department. With Scoot Henderson sliding into the starting lineup, it adds yet another facilitator off the dribble for Camara’s spot up opportunities - the Pelicans also do limit pick and roll ball handlers to the third lowest play frequency.
FanDuel (at -122). Even in a tough matchup, this is a low line for Ayo Dosunmu, who has been crashing the boards for the undermanned Timberwolves of late. Ayo has cleared this line in four straight without Anthony Edwards, with 10+ rebound chances in each game. Look for him to make it five straight tonight.
FanDuel. Another game where the Spurs won’t need to lean on their big guns - another game where Dylan Harper should find success off the bench. Harper has cleared this line in 9/12 games this season when playing between 20-26 minutes, with Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De’Aaron Fox all active, and against a team in the bottom half of the NBA in transition defense. Super specific, I know - but the Warriors rank 24th in that metric and have most of their better players resting tonight as well. The Spurs have been cruising of late, and Harper has settled into his role, clearing this line in six of his last seven games. I expect that trend to continue tonight.
FanDuel. Cody Williams has cleared this line in eight of the last ten games he’s played without both Lauri Markkanen and Keyonte George. With Isaiah Collier also out tonight, that Williams hit rate on this line climbs to 5/6 - and I expect him to continue on that trend tonight. The Jazz clearly have nothing to do but lose, which should be no issue tonight against Denver who is favored by 17 points. Williams is playing big minutes no matter the gamescript, and he should continue to thrive in a high usage role tonight. Also playable at over 14.5 points.
DraftKings. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is coming off a March in which he averaged 22.7 points per game. Without the departed Trae Young, and with Jalen Johnson, NAW has cleared this line in 35/55 games (64%), and in 3/3 overall against Orlando overall this season. He’s been awesome, and the Magic have struggled defensively against the perimeter all season. I expect the Hawks to lean on their main guys tonight in a game with massive playoff seeding implications in the Eastern Conference.
FanDuel. Bennedict Mathurin came back from a short absence for “injury maintenance” without missing a beat. The Arizona alum has fit right back in with the new look Clippers - in fact, he’s cleared this combined line in all nine games he’s played alongside both Kawhi Leonard and Darius Garland. The matchup tonight really suits his skillset - the Blazers allow the tenth most free throw attempts per game, and the aggressive Mathurin has 11+ FTA in each of his last three games. Plus, Portland is 27th and 29th against trabsition offense and pick and roll ball handlers, respectively. Bet on Mathurin to continue on his recent run.
DraftKings. While Alperen Sengun has put together some solid performances of late, it’s largely come in softer matchups for the Rockets big man. Tonight shouldn’t be one of those, as the Knicks have allowed the fewest combined points rebounds and assists to opposing centers, both over the course of the season and over the last 15 games. The Rockets running bigger lineups make it easier for the Knicks to play Mitchell Robinson more minutes - the Knicks backup center and defensive dynamo has been eating into Karl-Anthony Towns’ playing time as is. Sengun is under this line in 12/19 games against teams in the top 10 of allowing centers the fewest combined PRA, including 10 of the last 11. I’d bet this to under 32.5.
Caesar’s. Jalen Suggs is under this PRA line in 8/12 March games, coinciding with Anthony Black’s absence in the backcourt. Tonight, Suggs will face a Suns squad that plays at a snails pace (24th in tempo) while maintaining a stingy defense (10th overall). They’re particularly strong against what Suggs does best - allowing the fewest above the break three pointers, the fourth fewest transition points, and the seventh fewest assists. All of this adds up to the third fewest PRA allowed to guards. Plus, Suggs will likely be the primary defender on Devin Booker tonight - not the easiest of assignments. I’d bet this down to under 23.5.
FanDuel (1.5u). Luka Garza finds himself in a unique spot tonight. Not only are the Celtics resting Jayson Tatum, but both Neemias Queta and Nikola Vucevic are also sitting tonight, leaving Garza to absorb the bulk of the big man minutes. The Hawks have been excellent defensively, but the one area they do struggle is down low, ranking 28th against roll men and 23rd overall against points in the restricted area. Even if the Celtics pivot and go with smaller rotations (which I do expect due to the lack of front-court depth tonight), Garza should still clear this line in his normal minute allotment, let alone any extended looks.
FanDuel. The battle between the Raptors and Magic is one of those understated games with significant playoff seeding implications, as both teams are jockeying for positioning in the eastern conference. I expect the Magic to continue to rely on their main guys, one of which of late has been Wendell Carter Jr. The big man has cleared this line in 12 of the last 16 games, and has one of the Magic’s decisive advantages down low against Jakob Poeltl. I’d bet this to over 19.5.