Prop's Picks (2 Live)
FanDuel. Seahawks tight-end AJ Barner has emerged as a tush-push option for the Seahawks. With 11 carries this season, he’s cleared this line nine times, with a 91% first-down rate on his carries. He leads the Seahawks in rushing attempts on 3rd/4th and 1 (all 11 of his carries) - the injured Zach Charbonnet is second with seven. Notably, Sam Darnold only has five, George Holani two, and Kenneth Walker (surprisingly) with zero. Opponents are 10/10 against the Patriots in QB sneak first downs this season. This likely comes down to whether or not we get a short-yardage opportunity for Seattle - but I do have Barner with a better than 50% chance of earning a rush attempt. I’d bet this to -105.
FanDuel. I do feel that Mack Hollins’ yards line is undervalued here. He comes into this game having cleared this line in 9 of his last 11 games. No injury designation, so I expect him back to his 70-75% snap share on pass plays. Over the last eight games the Patriots pass catchers were fully healthy, Hollins is first on the team with 380 yards, second in targets (40, Stefon Diggs has 41), and first in yards per route run amongst the starters, (2.03). It’s not the best matchup, but he should see more of Josh Jobe than Devon Witherspoon on the outside. I have him conservatively at five targets, with upside given the Patriots tough run matchup and gamescript. I’d bet this to 26.5.
FanDuel. Stefon Diggs has stayed under this line in 11/20 games this season, with an average depth of target of 8.3 yards. When both Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte are active (13.5 and 17.4 aDOT, respectively), Diggs is under in 9/14 games, with an aDOT of 7.7. And in those 14 games, Diggs is fourth on the team in deep targets. Half of his routes are out of the slot (6.9 aDOT) - only two catches in the 14 games subset cleared 18+ yards out of the slot. And on the perimeter, he’ll face the Seahawks boundary DBs who’ve only allowed 27 catches of 15+ air yards on the outside in 19 games.
DraftKings. Jarace Walker has emerged of late for the stumbling Pacers, clearing this line in eight of his last ten games. This is an excellent matchup for his play style, as Toronto is allowing the fifth most points to spot up shooters. With Walker’s continued development paramount for the tanking Pacers, look for the Houston product to clear this line in his third straight game.
DraftKings. Payton Pritchard has failed to clear this combined line in 22 of 30 games this season, against teams outside of the bottom 10 in spot-up shooting defense, when he plays with Jaylen Brown. The Knicks rank 9th in that category, and Pritchard has struggled to find success against them in both matchups (19 and 17 PRA). This game profiles to be a slow, grind-it-out type matchup, and one where I expect Jaylen Brown to look to take over.
FanDuel. Devin Carter has come out from the shadows to play a key piece in the Kings rotation. The former first round pick is coming off back-to-back 20+ PRA games for the Kings, and should be poised for an even larger role tonight, with Malik Monk, Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, DeAndre Hunter and Keegan Murray all ruled out. Look for another all-around performance from Carter. I’d bet this up to over 18.5.
DraftKings. In his first three games this season, Ty Jerome has accrued 26, 27 and 35 points plus assists, while being limited to 20 minutes per contest. Incurring at least a 30% usage rate each game, I love this trend to continue, even with Jerome’s minutes continuing to be limited. The Blazers rank 7th in pace, so there should be an uptick in possessions today - and Jerome will be fresh after sitting out the first leg of the back to back (and I don’t expect Scottie Pippen Jr. to play tonight).
FanDuel. Gui Santos has cleared this points line in 6/7 games in which he’s played at least 22 minutes. Coming off an 18-point performance in which he lead the Warriors with 36 minutes, the spark-plus forward is currently atop of Steve Kerr’s rotation (without Steph Curry). This should serve as a solid spot for him to get out in transition (Lakers are 21st against the playtype). As long as he can avoid foul trouble (not always a given with him), I like Santos to clear this points line for the sixth straight game.
DraftKings. Jabari Smith Jr. has cleared this line in 13/17 games this season, when facing an opponent that ranks outside the top 12 in both rebounds allowed and catch and shoot defense. The Thunder are 24th and 29th in those categories, respectively, and Jabari has put up 21 and 27 P+R against them this season. This should prove to be a softer matchup for the big forward, as compared to Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson. Look for Smith to serve as a complement to Kevin Durant today. I’d also bet this at over 13.5 points.
FanDuel. Will Riley is about to see all of the minutes he can handle in today’s tank-fest against the Nets. Look for the rookie to clear this line in his fourth consecutive game, in a spot that should favor him offensively.
FanDuel. This Landry Shamet points line is worth a bet - the backup guard has cleared this line in 10/14 games this season with at least 20 minutes, a mark he’s cleared in each of the last three games. Karl Anthony-Towns and Deuce McBride are out, and OG Anunoby is questionable - even if the latter plays, Shamet has a comfortable minutes floor tonight.
Caesar’s / DK. Averaging 10 points plus assists this season, this is an ideal opponent for Derrick White to rack up the peripheral stats. White has cleared this line in 13/20 games against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in both rebounds and assists allowed, and 9/11 against teams in the bottom 12 of each. The Heat rank 22nd and 29th in assists and rebounds allowed, respectively, as White racked up 11 in both matchups.
DraftKings. I’m going to buy low on LeBron James’ points line. Despite clearing the 20-point mark in 19 of his last 24 contests, his points prop tonight is likely set a few points lower than his average due to Austin Reaves’ presence. However, the Lakers have conceded the Reaves’ minutes will be monitored again tonight (21 in his first game since Christmas the last time out), giving James enough runway to clear this total. It’s a solid matchup against the Sixers who have struggled with on-ball defense, and lack the size on the wing to match up with LBJ.