Prop's Picks (3 Live)
Caesar’s / MGM. I’m just not quite there on Emmet Sheehan yet. The young righty has shown flashes, but pitching to a 4.79 ERA (4.14 xERA), and needing a lot of pitches to get through at bats (4.09 is 15th most out of 132 qualifiers), this line reads as two outs too many. Even in a plus matchup - I like the Giants to take a measured approach tonight, on the heels of Shohei Ohtani’s brilliant outing yesterday. With the Dodgers bullpen in great shape, take the under down to 16.5 outs.
FanDuel (-112). I like this spot for Kris Bubic. The Royals lefty is only over this line in 4/8 starts this season, but did have his best outing of the season against his opponent tonight, the White Sox (7 innings and 11 Ks). Overall, Bubic has cleared this line in 3/4 outings against teams in the bottom 12 teams in strikeout rate against lefties - the White Sox are 22nd in that metric. Chicago’s lineup tonight leaves a lot to be desired, with seven plus targets for Bubic.
FanDuel. Nolan McLean will take the mound for the Mets today, and I’m liking him to strike out at least seven Tigers. The impressive rookie has 57 Ks in just 45.1 innings while boasting some impressive advanced metrics (2.34 xERA, 30.8 called plus swinging strike rate). He’ll take on a Tigers lineup that’s been strikeout prone of late: 24% against righties over the last two weeks, and only a .642 OPS. Likely facing a lineup that includes their backup catcher, look for McLean to stymie the Tigers today at Citi Field.
FanDuel. Tacking this on to my card, as Shohei Ohtani has been dominant on his home mound. The two-way phenom has a 36% K% in LA dating back to last season, including 19 punchouts over his last two home starts. Overall, he’s over this line in each of the last four, and from a qualitative perspective, him not being in the lineup when pitching (of late) does seem like he’s very focused on putting forth a Cy Young caliber season. Look for him to take care of business against an underwhelming Giants lineup.
FanDuel. Max Strus is averaging 5.1 rebounds per 25 minutes in his combined regular and postseason stats. He’s emerged as the Cavs top option off the bench, regularly closing games, and averaging 27 minutes this series. Clearing this line in eight of his last nine games, I like Strus to continue on that path tonight. The Cavs big man duo of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are only averaging a combined 11.3 rebounds per game this series - their struggles have forced Cleveland’ wings to crash the boards more frequently.
DraftKings. I’ve written a lot about Evan Mobley’s role in this series, and why I see value over 3.5 assists at plus money. Rather than repeating myself, I will offer this stat: Mobley has at least 4 assists in 35/51 games (68%) when he passes the ball at least 40 times when playing alongside Donovan Mitchell. His low this playoffs for passes made is 44 (against the Raptors) and 49 in this series (average of 57). The role as a connector is corroborated, and I don’t see that stopping in Game 5. Passes to assists is an imperfect ratio, but there is some correlation. My math keeps saying this should be priced around -120, so I’ll gladly continue to ride the over at plus money.
Caesar’s. Dylan’s Cease has allowed at least five hits in five of eight starts, including each of his last four outings. The Rays pose an interesting matchup for the righty as they are the premier contact-oriented team in baseball. The Rays have both the highest in and out of zone contact rate, the latter pertinent against a pitcher like Cease, who has an elite chase rate. The Rays own a .261 average against power pitchers, earning a hit in 22% of plate appearances. I don’t see this as a matchup where Cease will be able to stack K’s, and the Rays bats - especially their top four hitters - should squeeze out at least five hits in the first 23 plate appearances.
Caesar’s. I know that Reid Detmers is a popular breakout candidate as his underlying metrics suggest that he’s pitched better than his 4.33 ERA would indicate (2.91 xERA). But the fact is, he throws a lot of pitches: 4.08 per plate appearance is 16th highest out of 132 qualifiers. And he’ll face a Guardians lineup that sees the most pitches per plate appearance in baseball, with eight players in today’s lineup above average in the metric. The Guards offense are no slouches against lefties either: seven hitters in the lineup have at least a .340 OBP and 131 wRC+ against lefties this season. Detmers is under this line in 3/4 on the road - today should make it 4/5. I’d bet this to under 16.5.
FanDuel (-122). With the news that De’Aaron Fox (questionable) was spotted at shoot-around, I’ll buy low on Dylan Harper’s combined line tonight. Harper has cleared this number in three of four games, and is coming off a resounding 27-point, 7-rebound effort in game 4 (albeit mostly without Victor Wembanyama). This is a favorable matchup for Harper as the Wolves defense is predicated on making ball-handlers beat them one-on-one. Between Fox’s ankle, Stephon Castle’s propensity for fouling, and Mitch Johnson showing at least a willingness to play all three guards together in small spurts - there is enough upside for Harper on this line tonight. Playable to 15.5.
DraftKings. Julius Randle continues to struggle to produce in these playoffs, especially with Anthony Edwards looking healthier by the game. Randle is under this line in six of eight games with Edwards in this playoffs, including 3/4 against the Spurs. San Antonio poses a tough matchup for Randle as they’re excellent at preventing action in the paint. in Game 4, we saw Randle shoot well from the outside and rebound above expectation in a game where Victor Wembanyama was ejected in the second quarter, and he still remained under this total. Now in an uncomfortable road enviroment, I have Randle projected closer to 24 PRA - I’d bet this down to 26.5 PRA.
Caesar’s. Slade Cecconi has struggled for the Guardians this season. Pitching to a 6.15 ERA (5.63 xERA), his velocity is down, walk rate up, and xBA (.286) is in the 12th percentile. Allowing 49 hits in 41 innings, he’s been especially poor against righties: .342 OBA and a .998 OPS - doesn’t bode well against the righty-heavy Angels. Even against a light-hitting Angels lineup, they will drive up pitch counts (3.98 per plate appearance). Cecconi has been drilled the third time through the order (17/37 with 5 homers allowed - 1.422 OPS), and his leash has become tighter and tighter. With a bullpen in decent enough shape, look for a quick hook the third time through the order - I’d bet this at under 16.5.
FanDuel. Running it back with Ajay Mitchell. The breakout star for the Thunder has assumed the Jalen Williams role, complementing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the wing as a playmaker and scorer. Mitchell is now over this line in four of five games since Williams went down (with one miss against the Suns in a 5/20 shooting performance), with a usage rate of at least 25% in each game. Against a Lakers team that lacks a defensive presence on the perimeter, look for Mitchell to continue to thrive in Game 4.