Prop Bet Guy
Doug
PropBetGuy burst into the public consciousness in 2020 and quickly developed a massive following. Actively posting and recapping all of his bets on Twitter/X, making regular appearances on VSIN and ESPN Radio, PropBetGuy became synonymous nationwide with sharp, transparent and profitable prop betting. A former daily contributor at Action Network, he bets almost exclusively on player props in the NFL, NBA, MLB, CBB and CFB. Since the inception of his social media presence, PropBetGuy has recorded a profit of over 280 betting units, at a 6 percent ROI. Almost all of his bets are 1-unit plays, with rare 1.5-unit plays. PropBetGuy is coming off a terrific 2025 NFL season at SportsLine in which he went 131-101 (plus 12.85 units). Entering 2026, PropBetGuy sported a career 57 percent record on NFL player props (+122 units at a 7.5% ROI) and a 58 percent percent mark on college basketball player props (+52 units, 9 percent ROI). He had profited 67 units on NBA player props and 52 units on MLB player props as well. Now you will find the vast majority of PropBetGuy's plays, including his top bets, only on SportsLine. For PropBetGuy media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Prop's Picks
4 Live Picks
Mike Hughes has cleared this line in nine of his last ten games. …
Gavin Williams is under this line in three of four starts versus the White Sox this season. …
Drake London has a 67% hit rate on this prop with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. …
Alvin Kamara stayed under this line in 7/11 games as a starter last season. …
FanDuel. With Jalen Coker unlikely to play tonight, the Panthers will be devoid out wide. Enter Darren Waller, who saw his snap share bump to 67% on pass plays last week. The tight end led the Panthers in targets (8) while registering 51 receiving yards. Facing the Lions, Waller has a fantastic matchup against a defense that’s allowed 117 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends - the highest mark in the NFL by a wide margin. Down three safeties due to injury, Waller is a tough matchup for the Lions lining up mostly out of the slot. Rain is expected in Charlotte Sunday Night, but it doesn’t seem that it’ll prohibitive to the passing game. I’d bet this up to over 34.5 yards.
DraftKings. In his two games in Carolina, Devin Lloyd has made his presence felt. The linebacker has registered 22 total combined tackles across his two games, easily leading the Panthers in that stretch. While he did miss last game, he’s off the injury report tonight. He should be directly involved in (trying) to stop Jahmyr Gibbs in both the run and pass game tonight. In what should be a fast paced game - I like Lloyd to show out tonight at home.
DraftKings. On the heels of a 32-yard reception last week on a catch-and-run, I’m going to sell high and fade AJ Barner on his long reception prop. Barner’s average depth of target this season is 1.8 yards and has yet to record a target that has traveled more than 10 air yards. The Chargers defense does not give up a lot of yards after the catch, and I’m also trusting that last week’s inflated target total for Barner (9) was the product of a flukey gamescript.
Caesar’s. The Chargers offense has looked miserable out of the gate. However, one of the few bright spots has been speedster Keaton Mitchell. The newly acquired running back is averaging five yards per carry and caught a receiving touchdown last week. Mitchell’s snaps have increased each week since dealing with a preseason injury, and his presence on the field should be gamescript proof. It’s not a great matchup for him or the Chargers offense as a whole, but I do like it better for Mitchell than Omarion Hampton. Mitchell has cleared this line in each of the last two games, Look for the former Raven’s speed to play today - I’d bet this up to over 35.5 yards.
FanDuel. Malik Willis has 39, 6 and 56 rush yards across his three starts. The inclination is that the team may lean on Willis legs more now that De’Von Achane has been lost for the season (two of his three designed rushes this season came after Achane’s injury). The Vikings are a very blitz-heavy team, and Willis historically scrambles more when blitzed and pressured. I’d bet this up to over 30.5.
Michael King has stayed under this line in 12/17 road starts this season. In a playoff atmosphere with a short-leash, I don’t see him notching six strikeouts against a lefty heavy Brewers lineup. King only struck out 20% of lefties on the road this season, and he’ll see six today.
FanDuel. Somewhat surprisingly, it’s Mack Hollins who leads the Patriots in catches, targets, receiving yards, and first read rate through three weeks. It’s no secret that Drake Maye has really struggled, but he’s been solid when targeting Hollins (12/16, 156 yards). This is perhaps why Hollins had a 30% first read rate last week, in an effort to get Maye going (it didn’t work for the QB). Against the Bills, the Patriots will likely need to keep up with the number one scoring offense - Buffalo has allowed the fourth most receiving yards per game to first reads (204). Hollins’ route share has been 65%+ in the two weeks without AJ Brown, and I’d be shocked if that changed. I’d bet this to over 48.5.
FanDuel (1.5u). Wan’Dale Robinson has 13 catches on 18 targets across three games, clearing this line in 2/3 contests. His lone miss was in a brutal individual matchup against the Eagles, in which the Titans were unexpectedly in a positive/neutral gamescript throughout, and Cam Ward only dropped back 26 times. Against the Ravens, I’m expecting much more passing needed, with the Titans double-digit underdogs on the road. Baltimore is brutal to run against, and for the second straight season, are a wide receiver funnel. The Ravens allow 14.7 WR receptions per game (second most in the NFL, similar to last season). Part of that is eight catches per game permitted out of the slot, at a Robinson-friendly 7.8 aDOT.
FanDuel. Chase Brown is under this line in 2/3 games this season, and was under in 10/17 last year. He gets a brutal matchup against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is not only sound defensively against the run (5th in FTN’s DVOA, 4th last season), but they also do well to control the clock. The result is only 18.3 running back attempts per game (3.2 yards per carry yielded). Brown is not an efficient runner at 4.0 yards per carry with minimal explosive plays. He’d need significant volume to clear this line, and I don’t see that happening in what should be a pass-happy game for Joe Burrow.
I’m back on Dalton Schultz to stay under his long reception prop. He’s remained under this line in 10/14 games with both CJ Stroud and Nico Collins, dating back to last season. However, it’s the coverage matchup that intrigues me the most today. The Cowboys play cover 3 or cover 4 defenses more than 61% of the time - the second highest combination of those two coverage. When facing either cover 3 or 4, Schultz’ target per route run dropped by 3% last year, and 18% this year. And dating back to the beginning of last season, none of his 36 catches against the coverages have gone for more than 17 yards. I’m selling high on Schultz today.
FanDuel. This is a very low line for Kyren Williams, who is coming off consecutive 85+ rush yard games. He’s over in 2/3 this season, and 14/17 last season, including a 94-yard performance against the Eagles. Philadelphia has struggled against the run, allowing 120+ yards in each game thus far. They’re also struggling with ball control, allowing their opponents 52% time of possession (23rd). Devonta Smith is looking unlikely to suit up, which should hurt them both from an effectiveness and efficiency standpoint. Even with Puka Nacua suiting up for the Rams, they’ll continue to maintain their balance. Take this up to over 59.5.