Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel. It’s a small sample due to a plethora of injuries, but in the seven games that Dillon Brooks, Devin Booker and Jalen Green played their full complement of minutes, Brooks did not clear this line. In what should be a slower, playoff-like atmosphere, I expect Brooks to remain under this combined total against a Portland team that limits spot up opportunities.
DraftKings. This is a really low line for Michael King, who has had a ton of success at Petco Park as a Padre. In 27 career starts, he’s cleared this line 21 times, with a 31% strikeout rate. He’ll now face a Mariners lineup that’s striking out at a 24.7% clip against righties (ninth most), and has a 28.7% called plus swinging strike rate (seventh highest). King, despite missing on this line in two starts (both on the road) isn’t showing anything on the advanced/analytical side that suggests his strikeouts will regress this season.
Caesar’s. With the Hornets emergence over the second half of the season, Miles Bridges role has quietly shrunk. The wing is under this line in 24 of the last 37 games he’s played with both Brandon Miller and LaMelo Ball. Over that same span, his usage has fallen to 20.7% - it had been 23.3% previously. And newcomer Coby White has dominated the non-Lamelo Ball minutes which used to be a focal point for Bridges. Despite the Heat’s fast paced regular season, I expect a toned down playoff atmosphere tonight. And Miami’s defensive weakness of allowing pull-up shooting is more of the Hornets other scorer’s forte than Bridges’. I’d bet this with confidence to under 17.5.
DraftKings. Reid Detmers is under this line in two of his three starts. The converted reliever throws 4.22 pitches per plate appearance and has a 39% zone percentage, putting him in the 13th and 26th percentiles of qualifiers respectively. That should put him in a tough spot tonight against a Yankees lineup that sees 4.07 pitches per PA (third most) and the fifth lowest chase rate. After a dormant week, the Yankees bats finally woke up last night - any carry over into tonight’s game makes this a very difficult spot for Detmers to stay efficient.
DraftKings/Caesar’s. Gavin Williams has only allowed five hits through his first three starts, staying under this line in each of his three outings. He was also under in 20/31 starts last year. He was fourth amongst all qualifiers in pitches per plate (4.14) appearance last season, and seems to be headed down that path again this year (4.12). His high strikeout rate (37% in a small sample size) and walk rate (21%) don’t leave much room for balls in play - and when opponent’s do make contact, Williams has an above average ground ball rate, with a stellar infield defense behind him. His matchup tonight, the Cardinals, are only hitting .212 against righties this season, and an even worse .200 average against power pitchers.
DraftKings. Yusei Kikuchi is catching the Yankee lineup at the right time. In the middle of a five game losing streak, the Yankee bats have gone cold, and the strikeouts have piled up. The bombers strikeout rate is up to 26% (28% against lefties) and their called plus swinging strike rate is an alarming 29.3% (second highest). Kikuchi is coming off an eight strikeout game and has had success in this ballpark. The Angels also don’t have an off-day until next Thursday, so they’ll need their starters to eat innings.
DraftKings. Tanner Bibee hasn’t cleared this line yet, and has been hit hard in each of his three starts. He’ll now face a Braves lineup that’s put together a .778 OPS and 120 wRC+ against righties this season. Seven hitters in Atlanta’s lineup see above average pitches per plate appearance, including the heart of their batting order. Bibee has traditionally struggled the third time through batting orders his whole career (.800 OPS allowed last season, 3/4 allowed this season so far). With the series knotted at one and the bullpen in decent shape, I like Bibee to get pulled before the end of the sixth tonight.
Caesar’s. Adding this one late after going through the Cubs lineup. Bubba Chandler can be wild, but he also has ridiculous stuff: a fastball that touches triple digits, offset by a changeup and wipeout slider. He’s getting a softer Cubs lineup today, which features six right-handed bats, giving him a chance to feature that slider as a third pitch (FanGraph’s Stuff+ model actually grades it as his best pitch). Good hitting weather today at Wrigley, but this is a line that Chandler could clear in three innings, even if he’s touched up.
DraftKings / Caesar’s. Jose Soriano has come out of the gate as one of the most impressive pitchers in baseball thus far. With only one run and seven hits allowed across his 20 innings, Soriano has cleared this outs line in all three starts. He’s been able to miss more bats this season while maintaining an elite groundball rate. The Reds are an ideal opponent for his efficiency as they’ve struggled against righties, with a .620 OPS, and against ground ball pitchers (.541 OPS). Soriano should see 5-6 righties today, the side of the platoon that is 1/30 off of him so far this season. I’d bet this to over 17.5 outs.
FanDuel. After two straight games against strikeout averse lineups, this reads as a solid bounceback spot for Logan Webb. The ever-consistent Giants ace will face a Giants lineup that’s struck out at a 25% clip against righties thus far, while only producing a .685 OPS. Last season, Webb cleared this line in 13/16 starts against teams outside of the top 12 of strikeout rate (Baltimore is 21st this year). He’s only had one such opportunity this season (7 punch-outs against the Yankees), but I like him to easily secure six today.
DraftKings / FanDuel. Max Fried has cleared this line in both starts this season. An efficient, pitch to contact pitcher, Fried relies on an elite ground ball rate while also maintaining a lower hard hit rate. Today is an ideal matchup for Fried from an innings-eating standpoint: the Rays see the fifth fewest pitches per plate appearance so far this season, and profile as a below average lineup against left handed pitching. And against ground ball pitchers, they’ve strung together a measley .631 OPS thus far. I love this line at plus odds.
Caesar’s. Scoot Henderson is under this line in 5/7 games without Jerami Grant this season in regulation. Tonight should be a playoff atmosphere against the slow paced Clippers - I like Portland to lean on Deni Avdija and Jrue Holiday tonight. The wildcard is Shaedon Sharpe’s return; the dynamic guard will play after a 28-game absence. Even though Sharpe will be heavily limited, it does give Portland another on-ball option that could cut into Scoot’s usage.
DraftKings. Tatsuya Imai rebounded from an auspicious first start with nine strikeouts in 5.2 scoreless frames against the A’s. He’ll now face the Mariners whose bats are once again dormant to start the season, especially at home. We’re still in projection mode when it comes to Imai, but his two primary pitches profile as upper echelon swing and miss types, and of course we have the added bump of the Mariners not having seen the righty before. I have him projected right at 6, and would bet this to -110.
FanDuel (-112). I am once again going to fade the tanking Nets on their team total. Tonight, they will face the Bucks in what profiles as a snail-like matchup. Both teams are in the bottom eight of the NBA in team pace. And with each squad actively looking to lose, we’re sure to see some questionable offense. These two teams played just three days ago in a game that only had 93 offensive possessions - two full possessions slower than the Celtics, who are the league’s slowest team. The Nets actually shot at a league average rate in that game, and didn’t turn the ball over, and only mustered 90 points.