Prop's Picks (1 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
DraftKings. Jalen Williams has cleared this line in three of four games this season. The big headline today is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out, along with a few other Thunder rotation players. Without SGA on the floor since the beginning of last season, Williams sees his usage rate shoot up to 34%. Against a team like the Jazz that bleeds spot up shooting (second most assists allowed), I love this spot. I also do like Williams to rebound well, as he typically does in lineups without Isaiah Hartenstein.
FanDuel / MGM. After taking some paternity leave, Luka Doncic returns to the floor tonight. Averaging 35.3 points per game this season, Doncic has cleared this line in all five games that he, Austin Reaves and LeBron James have played together this season. This is an ideal spot for Luka’s points prop too - the Sixers are 27th in pick and roll defense. Likely running on some added emotion/adrenaline, I love Doncic to go off tonight. I’d bet this up to over 32.5 points.
DraftKings. Back to the well to fade Jaren Jackson Jr. again. He’s averaging 19.3 points plus assists this season - and he’s under in 6/9 without Ja Morant. This should be a tougher spot for him against the Blazers, who limit spot up opportunities at the fourth best rate. Plus, the foul prone Jackson could be in trouble tonight against the Blazers who draw the most fouls per game. Likely drawing the Deni Avdija matchup, Jackson Jr. is a prime candidate for foul trouble.
FanDuel. With Marvin Harrison Jr. ruled out, it’s time to fire up Michael Wilson overs again. Wilson accrued 25 catches on 33 targets in the two games Harrison missed, with a ridiculous 39% first read rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Against the Rams, gamescript should cooperate, and I don’t expect the Cardinals subpar rushing attack against the Rams third ranked run defense (per FTN’s DVOA metric). I have Wilson once again seeing double digit targets.
FanDuel. Going to ride the Colston Loveland train in this matchup. The Packers allow the tenth most tight-end catches per game (5.83), and should be tough to run on. Without leading receiver, Rome Odunze, I anticipate Loveland on the field for 75%+ of the pass snaps. As is, he’s cleared this line in three of the last five. Tougher matchup for the Bears receivers in this one as well.
FanDuel. After starting the season incredibly slow, Chase Brown has not only cleared this line in each of his last six games, but recorded at least 100 scrimmage yards in each. The bump in his production coincided with Joe Flacco taking the reins, and now with Joe Burrow back at quarterback, defenses will be more focused stopping the Bengals through the air. The Bills have struggled as is against the run game, allowing the third most running back rush yards per game (on more than five yards per carry). And Brown should be involved in the passing game against a Bills defense that plays two-high safeties to protect against the deep ball. I’d bet this up to 77.5 yards.
DraftKings. Chris Rodriguez has emerged as the lead back for the Commanders. He’s cleared this line in three of his last four games, taking control of the early downs. In terms of volume, it’s an elite matchup against the Vikings, who struggle mightily with ball control. The Vikings allow the most running back rush attempts per game (27). When JJ McCarthy starts, that number bumps up to 28.5 over his six starts.
DraftKings. Nick Cross has cleared this tackle line in seven of 12 games this season. Spending most of his snaps in the box, Cross is the Colts third leading tackler against the run, and second in the passing game. He’ll get a plus matchup against the Jaguars who allow the second most tackles to opposing safeties (per PFF data). Twelve safeties have cleared this line in 12 games against Jacksonville (with at least one in nine separate contests).
DraftKings. Darnell Washington has emerged as a key piece of the Steelers passing attack. He’s cleared this line in four of his last five games, and is coming off a contest where he saw his highest pass snap rate (88%) of the season. Even if he sees less snaps on Sunday, he really does not need much volume (8.6 yards per target this season). Baltimore is allowing the 10th highest yards per target to tight-ends, with league-average volume. I see those targets coming, as I have Washington projected with 4 throws his way. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 yards.
DraftKings. There’s a lot to like about this AJ Barner under. The counting stats support it: he’s under this line in 9/12 games, including each of the last six, with an average depth of target of 5.5 yards. Of his 44 targets, only 8 have traveled more than 10 air yards. He’ll face the Falcons, who rank 10th in DVOA against tight-ends (per FTN), and are top four in targets, receptions and yards allowed to the position. Specifically against in-line tight-ends (88% of Barner’s alignment), Atlanta only allows 16.5 receiving yards per game. Barner also sees his target rate drop against both Cover 3 and single high safety coverages - Falcons run both at a top 5 rate.
DraftKings. This line is a touch high for Andrew Wiggins, even without Tyler Herro available. With no Herro, but with Bam Adebayo available, Wiggins is under this line in 8/10 games. This isn’t the best matchup for an under, but there is the added element of this being a back to back. I’d bet this to under 25.5.
DraftKings. Jaylon Tyson has cleared this line in eight of nine games without Jarrett Allen available this season - and the one miss was partially due to significant foul trouble. The second-year pro has looked the part of a commentary piece for the Cavs, averaging 22 points + rebounds across the 12 games he’s played at least 26 minutes. Darius Garland is likely back tonight, but Tyson’s role and minutes should remain largely unchanged. It’s just too low of a line for Tyson right now.
FanDuel. Saddiq Bey has cleared this combined line in seven straight games, coinciding with Herb Jones going down with a calf injury. Now without Zion Williamson (and still no Jordan Poole), Bey will be continue to be relied on to produce. It’s a fantastic matchup for his skill set offensively - the Nets are last against spot up shooters, and third to last in allowing transition points.
FanDuel. This is a sky high line, but one that Zach Edey has been clearing regularly of late. He has at least 15 rebounds in five of his last six games, with the one exception being a six-minute outing against the Nuggets. His rotation is up to 30 minutes per game, pending foul trouble, and he’s been a menace on both the offensive and defensive glass. He grabbed 19 rebounds against the Clippers earlier this season, and was strong on the glass against Ivica Zubac last year as well.