Caesar’s. With the Jazz tanking, and battling the litany of “injuries” throughout the roster, Cody Williams has been thrust into a high usage role. The second year wing has cleared this line in six of his last seven games. His minutes fluctuate, with the Jazz more likely to let him loose in games they have a higher likelihood to lose. Tonight should be one of those instances, against the Suns in a game with a 16.5-point spread.
Caesar’s. Jack Flaherty is coming off an uninspiring spring in which he pitched to a 7.82 ERA. He’s built up to 81 pitches, but his last two outings saw him throw 9.2 innings, allowing 12 hits and 9 runs. Throughout his tenure as a Tiger, Flaherty has struggled the third time through the batting order (including an .817 OPS allowed last season), and in his first start, I don’t see Tigers manager AJ Hinch pushing him to do so today. The Padres are coming off two muted offensive outings against two of the baseball’s preeminent southpaws - but this offense profiles better against right handed pitching.
DraftKings. Maxime Raynaud is one of the few (if not only) bright spots remaining for another lost Kings season. The rookie big man has cleared this points line in 10 of his last 14 games. He’ll face a Hawks team that’s very stingy defensively on the perimeter, but not as much down low. They rank 28th against pick and roll men this season, and 23rd in terms of opponents points in the restricted area. Plus, Onyeka Okongwu has been ruled out, and Jock Landale is questionable. Raynaud gets minutes no matter the gamescript, and should be featured heavily tonight.
DraftKings. This is an elite spot for Deni Avdija, one of the most aggressive dribble drivers in the NBA. The Mavericks are a rim funnel, and their defensive strategy is to not help off ball. Issue is that they don’t have any rim protection. They rank 28th in points allowed at the rim, with Deni going for 29 and 27 against them this season. I’d bet this to over 24.5.
FanDuel. Gary Payton II missed on his points prop for us last game against the Nets, but he’s still over this line in 12 of his last 15 games. With De’Anthony Melton sitting this one out, there should be more opportunity for Payton, in an ideal spot against the lowly, fast paced Wizards.
DraftKings. The Guardians might have tipped their hand on how they’ll use Gavin Williams tonight. The big right hander was built up to 85 pitches in his second to last spring start, then pitches 70 in his final spring outing 5 days ago. This is the exact formula followed for Tanner Bibee, who was pulled after five innings and 78 pitches last night. Williams is historically is much less efficient with his pitches - 4.14 per plate appearance last season was the fifth highest amongst qualifiers. I’ll take my chances he’s limited in the same fashion tonight, against a patient Mariners lineup.
FanDuel. I think this is worth a stab. Sandy Alcantara returned from Tommy John surgery last season to very un-Cy Young like results. But he did finish strong, and I’m looking for him to regain his dominant form this season. This spring, Alcantara unleashed a new sweeper with the goal of missing more bats, which he did (16 strikeouts in 12.2 Spring innings). He’s built up to 86 pitches, so pitch count shouldn’t be an issue. And he’ll face a Rockies lineup that features seven hitters with an above average K% versus RHP in 2025, and seven with an above average chase rate (excludes one hitter making his debut).
Caesar’s. Trevor Rogers draws the Opening Day start for the Orioles, looking to build off an impressive 2025 campaign. Last season, he pitched to a 1.80 ERA (3.41 xERA), while showcasing increased velocity and an improved slider/sweeper combo. He looked the part spring training, pitching to a 2.51 ERA and 0.98 WHIP - building up to 5.1 innings and 82 pitches in his final outing. He’ll face a Twins lineup that profiles to be well below average against LHP this season, as well as from a pitches per plate appearance perspective. I’d bet this line up to over 16.5 outs for 0.75 betting units.
DraftKings. Since re-entering the rotation, Gary Payton II has emerged as a model of consistency for the Warriors. Payton has cleared this line in 14 of his last 18 games, including each of his last eight. Thriving in transition and off cuts to the basket, this is the perfect spot for him. The Nets rank 25th against transition opportunities, 28th against spot ups, and 24th in assists allowed at the rim.
FanDuel. Christian Braun has cleared this line in nine of his last 12 games without Aaron Gordon, who is inactive tonight. With Peyton Watson not starting, it tells me he’s still on a strict minutes limit. Look for Braun to play third fiddle for the Nuggets in what should be a fast paced matchup.
FanDuel. Jaden McDaniels has cleared this combined line in 12 of 14 games without Anthony Edwards this season. One of those misses was 23 PRA in a blowout against the Jazz, and the other the second leg of a back to back. Now without Ayo Dosunmu available, the Timberwolves offense will rely on McDaniels to take on a bigger role. Barring foul trouble, look for McDaniels to play major minutes tonight. I like this up to over 23.5.
FanDuel at -122. With the Spurs all but locked into the two seed in the western conference, they’ve taken advantage by giving some of their stars some maintenance days for nagging injuries, in advance of the playoffs. Tonight, De’Aaron Fox will be out, and that means Dylan Harper should once again draw significant playing time. The second overall pick is coming consecutive 20+ point games, and figures to be leaned on heavily against the taking Grizzlies.
FanDuel. Averaging 18.7 points per game this season (in 27.6 minutes), Dejounte Murray has returned from his Achilles injury to bring some life to the listless Pelicans. With his rotation now at a consistent 30 minutes, I like this spot for him tonight. The Knicks have struggled all season against three-level scoring, pick and roll ball-handlers, ranking 25th against the playtype. After a tough game against a stingier pick and roll defense of the Cavaliers, I expect Murray to bounce back tonight.
DraftKings/alt line on FanDuel. The Sacramento Kings are down a laundry list of players tonight, and Malik Monk is likely to be thrust into a significant role, as he was on Sunday (30 minutes, 32 points). Monk has cleared this points line in 7/7 games this season with just 22+ minutes without Zach LaVine. The Kings only have three ball-handlers active tonight with Monk, Devin Carter and Demar Derozan. Monk’s game should translate well against a Hornets defense that doesn’t help off-ball. It might not be pretty, but the Kings don’t have many other options right now, and Monk is a capable microwave scorer. I’d bet this to over 18.5.
FanDuel. Jordan Miller should find himself in a favorable spot tonight. The Clippers will be without both John Collins and Benedict Mathurin, and Kawhi Leonard has been dealing with an ankle injury. Miller, who is averaging 26.7 minutes per game in February, has cleared this points line in 9/13 games with 20+ minutes against teams in the bottom half of the NBA in defending spot up opportunities (Miller’s dominant playtype). With the Bucks ranking 29th in that department, I like Miller to thrive off the ball as a scorer tonight.