Prop's Picks (2 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
DraftKings. Sonny Gray, traditionally dominant at home, gets a familiar opponent with the Brewers today. His 28% K% in St. Louis is similar to least season’s 29% - he was 12/13 to the over in his fully stretched out home starts last season, and 2/3 this year. He gets the Brewers, whom he’s had strikeout success against. And with a day game on tap, he should see a favorable lineup potentially featuring the backup catcher. I’m betting this to win 1.2 units.
FanDuel. I’m back on Naz Reid after a disappointing Game 2 performance. Reid was plagued by foul trouble in the first half (zero points), but came to life in the second half (nine points). With the Lakers continuing to employ smaller lineups, it’s increasingly difficult to keep Rudy Gobert on the floor. Reid was a major factor in Game 1 (23 points), and I expect a bounceback in a crucial third game.
FanDuel. It’ll only be his third outing of the season, but I’m backing Andrew Abbott and his strong start to 2025. The lefty had an off year in terms of strikeouts in 2024, but he’s been regarded as a high strikeout pitcher throughout his amateur and professional career. Coming off two stellar performances (16 Ks in 11 IP), Abbott’s tweaked changeup has yielded strong results thus far. And it’s a fantastic matchup against the strikeout prone Rockies (28.9% K% versus southpaws) and the conditions at Coors Field today won’t be as hitter friendly as usual (per Ballpark Pal).
FanDuel. Running it back with Andrew Nembhard, who has scored 17 points in each of the first two games of this series. In a closer Game 2, he was up to 34 minutes - expect that to stay the course in Game 3, especially with Damian Lillard back. Not afraid to take a big shot either - should find himself with some open looks.
FanDuel. Russell Westbrook has now exceeded this line in 21 of the last 30 games he’s played with both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, including games 1 and 2. The rub for Game 3 is that Michael Porter Jr. is questionable with a shoulder injury. I expect him to suit up, but if he’s ineffective at all, Nuggets coach David Adelman likely goes with Russ down the stretch.
FanDuel at +110. Playable to -120. I’m once again targeting a pitching out under for a starter going against the Brewers. Milwaukee has seven guys in the lineup today who see above average pitches per plate appearances, and as a team, they own the eighth lowest chase rate. That should bode well against Landen Roupp - the Giants starter has the third lowest strike zone percentage out of 124 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this season. Pitching for the first time on four days rest this season, and yet to establish a third pitch to go along with his curveball and sinker, we’ll see how much leeway he’s given the third time through the order.
FanDuel. Freddy Peralta has looked great to start 2025, pitching to a 1.91 ERA and 2.51 xERA. The one thing that has plagued the Brewers ace is pitch efficiency. Peralta has remained under this line in four of his five starts. At 4.12 pitches per plate appearance and a 34% zone percentage, he ranks in the 16th and 1st percentiles, respectively, amongst qualified starters. The Giants are tenth in pitches per plate appearance, and their platoon against righty pitchers should yield 7-8 hitters who see above average pitches. And over the last two weeks, the Giants have a 123 wRC+ and .790 OPS against righties, including the league’s highest walk rate (14.2%).
FanDuel. I know I sound like a broken record, but I’m once again on Davion Mitchell. He’s now cleared this line in eleven of his last twelve games against non-tanking teams, and is coming off an 18-point, 9-assist performance in Game 1 (notably, with 20 potential assists). His role is solidified even more so this series, as he was by far the Heat’s best individual defender on Donovan Mitchell. His coming off the bench is more ceremonial at this point than anything - he should be locked in for another 32-36 minutes tonight.
B365 @-120. Paolo Banchero was one of the few bright spots for the Magic in Game 1. He scored 36 points on 27 shots, incurring a 37% usage rate and driving the ball to the basket 17 times. His role is elite, and the Celtics did not budge off of their one-on-one defensive philosophy. Boston ranked 25th in the regular season against pick and roll ball-handlers, and 28th versus isolation - the two were by far Paolo’s go to scoring methods in the half court. And this line isn’t even inflated - Paolo averaged 25.9 points per 34.4 minutes this season. He’s likely to reach the 40-minute mark in this one (42 minutes in game 1). Good up to over 26.5 points.
FanDuel. Naz Reid had a fantastic Game 1, scoring 23 points in 31 minutes. This season, when Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle are all active, Reid averaged 13.3 points and cleared this line in 39 of 64 games (including 26 of the last 38). This series is a tough matchup for Rudy Gobert, who struggles when teams go small ball. Reid is a more natural fit, and provides the floor spacing that Edwards needs.
Caesar’s. I’m selling high on Jordan Hicks. He’s failed to clear this line in two of his four starts, and is still failing to throw strikes consistently (61%). He’s coming off a flukey performance where he managed seven innings, as the Phillies bailed him out after getting to him early (and had four baserunners thrown out). Now pitching on four-days rest for the first time this season, Hicks has a tough matchup against the patient Brewers (seventh lowest chase rate). Giants bullpen is in decent enough shape, and have their ace Logan Webb going tomorrow.
DraftKings. Chris Bassitt has started the season strong, but this is a nice opportunity to bet on some regression (0.77 ERA versus 2.86 xERA, 40% hard hit). The Astros have started to hit again, and have traditionally succeed at home. As is Bassitt is under this line in three of four starts.
FanDuel @ -125. Isaiah Hartenstein and the Thunder starters weren’t needed much in Game 1 - winning by 51 points will allow for that to happen. Despite that, the Thunder big man still put up 14 points in just 21 minutes. Averaging 11.3 points per game this season, Hartenstein reached double digits in all four of his regular season matchups with the Grizzlies. And when the Thunder had Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander available, Hartenstein cleared this line in 11/17 games. The Grizzlies are a plus matchup for iHart, ranking 23rd against roll-men in the pick and roll.