FanDuel. Coming off of the best game of his career, I’m backing Justin Edwards to notch at least 14 points for the fourth time in five games. The Sixers face the Jazz, who remain dead last in the NBA against both spot up shooters and in transition. Riding high with confidence, I expect another strong performance from Edwards.
DraftKings. Alperen Sengun is averaging 20.2 points per game this season, but much of that damage was done early on. Sengun’s average has dropped to 18.3 points per game since January 1st, as the big man has admittedly played at less than 100%. Lining up against the Heat front line, Sengun will face a tough matchup against both Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware - overall, the Heat allow the 11th fewest points to opposing centers (despite playing at the league’s fastest pace). Sengun is actually under this line in 21 of his last 25 games against teams outside the bottom ten in points allowed to centers.
FanDuel. Without Jalen Johnson and his 10.4 rebounds per game available tonight, I expect Onyeka Okongwu to pick up the slack on the boards. The Warriors allow the tenth most boards, and Okongwu is over this line 17/28 (60%) against teams in the bottom half of rebounds allowed. And he’s over this line in 4/6 without Johnson.
DraftKings. Austin Reaves is under this line in 11/15 games played with both Luka Doncic and LeBron James since returning from his early season groin injury. With Luka playing at an MVP level, and LeBron also playing some of his best ball of the season, Reaves, who is dealing with hip soreness, has been the third wheel of late. The Magic make you beat them one-on-one and limit secondary opportunities and peripheral stats. With Reaves not getting as many on-ball opportunities, I’m loving the under here - playable to under 29.5.
DraftKings. This is a sneaky spot for Aaron Gordon, who has cleared this line in 11/13 games with Nikola Jokic this season, when seeing at least 24 minutes of action. The minutes have been spotty, as Gordon has battled injuries all season, but he did play 35 minutes in a game against the Lakers last week - if this one stays close, he should see at least 30. And it’s a great spot for his skillset, as the Raptors rank 23rd against spot up opportunities.
FanDuel. Caris LaVert figures to play a significant role off the bench tonight for the Pistons, who will be without Cade Cunningham and Marcus Sasser. Functioning as the primary ball-handler of the second unit behind Davis’s Jenkins, look for LeVert to clear this line in his third straight game.
Caesar’s at -108. Dylan Harper has cleared this line in 14 of his last 20 games when playing at least 20 minutes, a mark I like him to hit tonight. The Spurs will be without Stephon Castle, meaning Harper will be counted on to provide complementary playmaking on the wing.
DraftKings. Darius Garland hasn’t played both legs in a back-to-back since December, and was a game time call coming into yesterday’s game. Reading the tea leaves - he’s likely sitting today, which slides Kris Dunn into the starting lineup as the primary ball-handler. Without Garland or James Harden this season, Dunn has cleared this line in 11/14 games. I expect that trend to continue tonight against the Pelicans, who allow the sixth most assists per game.
FanDuel. Going to come back to Ronald Holland tonight, in a repeat matchup against the Wizards. We cashed the 1.5 unit play on Tuesday, but I’m reverting back to the standard one unit tonight and tacking on rebounds. While I have a little less confidence in Holland’s minutes floor tonight, it’s a smash spot for his playstyle against the uptempo yet porous defense of the Wizards.
DraftKings. Since returning from his midseason injury, Austin Reaves is under this combined line in 9/13 games played alongside both LeBron James and Luka Doncic. In what should be another grind of a game between two teams that sit in the bottom 11 of the league in pace, I don’t see Reaves getting the requisite volume he’d need to clear this line. I’d bet this down to under 28.5.
Caesar’s. Onyeka Okongwu has cleared this rebounds line in 14/18 games as a starter, when facing a bottom 12 team in rebounds allowed. The Mavericks are 27th in that department this season, and Okongwu cashed in on this same line against them just last week (9 rebounds). Look for the Hawks big man to continue to hit the boards tonight.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper is expected to suit up tonight after missing the last two games with a calf injury. It’s a great spot for the rookie to get his feet back underneath him against the dreadful Kings, who rank 28th defensively this season. Against the bottom eight teams in defensive rating, Harper is over this line in 10/13 games this season.
FanDuel. Jumping back on the Justin Edwards wagon tonight. The Sixers wing has now cleared this line in each of his last four games with extended minutes. As the Sixers will be without Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Kelly Oubre, Edwards will be looked upon to fill the void. Even if this game gets out of hand (which I expect) Edwards should still see 25+ minutes.
FanDuel. Jalen Green has been rolling, clearing this line in six straight games. He’ll face a Timberwolves defense that does not double team or help, and as a result, allows the most points to pick and roll ball-handlers. Green, who has now taken at least 20 shots in five straight games, should have ample volume in a paced up spot, with Minnesota a top ten tempo team. Devin Booker should absorb most of the Jaden McDaniels matchup, and the Wolves will also be without their offensive catalyst (and plus wing defender) in Anthony Edwards. The Suns will be sans Grayson Allen, leaving Booker and Green to carry the load. Playable to over 27.5.
FanDuel (1.5u). Ron Holland has cleared this line in 10 of his last 13 games. He’ll now face an awful Wizards defense in a game that’s ripe with blowout potential (especially with the Wizards coming off a game last night). I’m betting this line at 1.5 betting units and would bet over 8.5 points at one unit.