Prop's Picks (1 Live)
FanDuel. Maxime Raynaud should find himself in a nice spot against the Trailblazers on Friday night. The Kings will be without Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and Drew Eubanks - the latter two leaving the team thin at center. Raynaud has shone when given the oppportunity, including clearing this line in five of his last seven games. The Blazers are below average both against points in the paint and rebounds allowed.
DraftKings. It took a few weeks for Rashid Shaheed to get up to speed in Seattle, but he’s registered 67 and 74 receiving yards the last two weeks, on twelve total targets. In those two games, he has a 23.8% first read rate (10 total targets, per FantasyPoints). It’s a fantastic matchup against the Rams defense - LA has been a funnel to outside receivers, allowing the fourth most receiving yards per game (122.3), on the ninth highest yards per route run (2.10) to pass catchers aligned out wide. Shaheed is out wide for 74% of his snaps as a Seahawk, and should be able to cash in against the soft zone coverage. I’d bet this up to over 37.5 receiving yards.
FanDuel. Tyler Kolek should find himself with a good sized workload for the Knicks tonight. Coming off his surprising performance in the NBA Cup Finals, I’m guessing the Knicks lean on their role players in the first leg of a back to back. Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson have been declared out, along with Deuce McBride and Landry Shamet.
DraftKings. Usage play on Donte DiVencenzo - who has cleared this line in four of six games without Anthony Edwards. Without Mike Conley either, DDV will be relied on to run the offense. Good matchup against a Grizzlies defense that are a top five matchup for opposing point guards. I’d bet this up to over 20.5.
FanDuel. I’m continuing to key in on Jaylon Tyson. In his elevated role, he’s cleared this combined line in 12 of 16 games with at least 24 minutes played. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should be in for another solid workload, as the Cavs will be without both Evan Mobley and Sam Merrill. The Bulls play fast (third in pace) and allow plenty of rebounds (sixth most). Tyson thrived in this matchup earlier this season with 17 points and 7 rebounds in 31 minutes - I expect more of the same tonight.
DraftKings. It’s a tougher matchup for Karl-Anthony Towns tonight. The Spurs allow the seventh fewest points plus rebounds to opposing centers this season. Against teams in the top 20 of both points in the paint allowed and rebounds allowed (Spurs are 7th in both categories), Towns is under this line in six of nine games. It’s a very tough individual matchup against Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet, and when the former is on the court, Towns becomes a big time foul liability. I’d bet this down to under 31.5.
Bet365 at -120. If you strip out the game he left early with an injury, Ja Morant is averaging more than 12 rebounds plus assists per game (30.4 minutes). Having come back from said injury and playing 25 minutes three days ago, I do think Morant should be in line for 30 minutes tonight. He’s cleared this line in nine of his last ten full games, and he’ll be facing the Clippers, who allow the fifth most rebounds plus assists to opposing point guards. Morant looked engaged in his first game back, and I’m banking on that to carry over today.
FanDuel. De’Von Achane had crushed this line in each of his last three games, before falling just short in one half against the Jets before leaving with an injury. With no injury designation tonight, I’m expecting a massive workload for the running back. The Steelers not only allow the eighth most running back scrimmage yards, but also allow their opponents the most plays per game. I expect 21-22 touches for Achane, no matter the gamescript. That should put Achane conservatively in the 120s - I’d bet this up to over 114.5.
DraftKings. I’m hopping back on the Darnell Washington train this week. The massive tight-end was over this line in four of five games before leaving last week’s game early with a concussion. Fully cleared and off the injury report, I like Washington today in a great matchup. The Dolphins have been a tight-end funnel all season, allowing the second most yards per game at 68.2. Washington, whose snap and route share has shot upward over the last few weeks, should capitalize against some softer coverages. I’d bet this up to over 23.5 yards.
DraftKings. Since returning from injury, Blake Cashman has cleared this line in six of his last seven, with the lone miss at 9 combined tackles. The Cowboys are a plus opponent, allowing the sixth most tackles per game overall (63), and the third most linebacker opportunities (per PFF data). The Vikings have struggled with time of possession with JJ McCarthy under center, and I like that to continue today against a motivated and improving Cowboys defense. I’d bet this up to -150.
DraftKings. Jalen Johnson has cleared this line in six straight games, including a 14 rebound effort against the 76ers (11 in regulation). The 76ers are allowing the ninth most rebounds per game, and with Joel Embiid manning the middle, Johnson should be in prime position to crash off of his action.
DraftKings. This is a line I’d have considered betting even if Daniel Jones was starting. Michael Pittman Jr. has failed to clear this line in seven of 13 games, and the matchup is brutal. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers, at the lowest yards per reception (10.31) and yards per route run (1.36). Pittman runs 71% of his routes out wide, and when he does venture into the slot, his average depth of target is only 5.4 yards. And oh yeah, the Colts are starting 44-year old Philip Rivers, whose arm strength was below average back in 2020. I have Pittman’s long reception projected around 14 yards. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.
DraftKings. Rookie Chimere Dike has evolved into a reliable target for Cam Ward and the despondent Titans offense. Without Calvin Ridley, Dike has cleared this line in four of six games this season. Running 68% of his snaps out of the slot (68% of his catches, and 72% of his targets, per PFF) - he’ll face a 49ers defense that’s allowed the most catches to that alignment this season (8 per game) at the second highest catch rate (77%, per Fantasy Points Data). The Titans have been dialing up more screens for the dynamic receiver, with nine designed reads over the last six games, as well as a 21% first read rate.
DraftKings. Despite Colby Parkinson coming on strong with Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, this is a high line for the tight end. Parkinson only has two catches this season that have exceeded 16 yards, and his average depth of target is only 3.0 yards. Running 75% of his routes in-line, the Lions have allowed the second fewest catches (1.6 per game) and the lowest yards after catch per reception (2.62) to that alignment this season. With Detroit running man coverage at the second highest rate, I’m expecting a ton of targets going towards Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who both thrive against man.