Prop's Picks (3 Live)
Prop's Past Picks
DraftKings. Deandre Ayton has cleared this line in 10 of the last 15 full games he’s played. No Luka Doncic available tonight - Ayton is 4/4 on this line without Luka. Now, none of those games were with LeBron James, but I don’t expect to command nearly the shot/scoring volume of Doncic. And if anything, LeBron’s presence adds another ball-handler in the pick and roll, which should benefit Ayton in this matchup. The Raptors struggle defending roll-men, allowing the ninth most points to the playtype. The Raptors do a great job of limiting transition, and I expect Ayton to be featured heavily in the half court offense, especially as Toronto will be without Jakob Poeltl tonight.
DraftKings. Marvin Bagley has 20+ points + rebounds over his last three games. With Alex Sarr, Tre Johnson, Bilal Coulibaly and Corey Kispert all out tonight, Bagley should once again be in for a solid role. The Celtics allow the eighth most combined points and rebounds to opposing centers this season. Bagley should have success on the offensive glass as well - the Celtics allow the second highest offensive rebound rate.
DraftKings. The Bulls will be without a ton of guards tonight: Coby White, Tre Jones, Kevin Huerter and Isaac Okoro, amongst others. Ayo Dosunmu, who has logged a significant role of late, should have a very steep minutes floor tonight. Dosunmu has cleared this line in eight of 12 games when playing just 26+ minutes this season, and he gets a fantastic matchup for his play style. The Nets are the worst and fourth worst team against spot up shooters and transition, respectively. I’d bet this up to over 19.5.
FanDuel. Even with Darius Garland and Lonzo Ball returning to the lineup tonight, there should still be enough minutes for Jaylon Tyson to clear this line. Coming off a career game in which he notched 27 points and 11 rebounds, Tyson has now cleared this line in six of seven games without Jarrett Allen. And without the big man, there is a direct path to closing minutes, especially in a matchup against the Blazers who run with one big and four guards/wings. Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson should continue to ride the hot hand - I have Tyson projected closer to 19 points plus rebounds.
FanDuel. Jalen Williams has cleared this combined line in both games he’s played this season. Last year, he was 13/20 (65%) on this line without Isaiah Hartenstein, who is out tonight. Up to 34 minutes last game, his minutes floor is relatively secure, since he gets the first shift on of the fourth quarter, and they likely want to keep ramping him up. Warriors allow the eighth most rebounds per game, and are roughly league average with assists. But again, I do see getting Williams up to speed a priority for the Thunder right now - and the Thunder are even more flush with off-ball scoring right now.
FanDuel. Jaren Jackson Jr. is under this line in 17 of 19 games in regulation this season, including six of seven without Ja Morant. With Zach Edey taking a more prominent role offensively, this is a tough spot for Jackson. The Spurs have maintained their paint defense without Victor Wembanyama (3rd fewest points allowed), and 55% of Jackson’s made baskets are within 10 feet. He’s a capable outside shooter (36% from three), but his volume from long range ebbs and flows. Overall, Jackson’s usage rate of 24% is down from 27% last season as the Grizzlies have tried to implement a more balanced offense. I’d bet this down to under 28.5 PRA.
FanDuel. Dylan Harper has cleared this player prop line in eight of his nine games played. Working his way back from a multi-week injury, he was up to 20 minutes in his last game against the Timberwolves. Harper is averaging 11 points per just 18 minutes per game - so we don’t necessarily need more minutes, however I do expect the Spurs to continue to ramp up the rookie. I’d bet this up to over 11.5 points (risking one unit).
DraftKings. Trey Murphy returns for the Pelicans tonight, and is immediately greeted by a brutal matchup against the Timberwolves. Murphy, who thrives as a spot-up shooter, will face off against Minnesota’s top ranked defense against the playtype. Overall, Murphy is under this line in 10 of 19 games. I’d bet this down to under 22.5 points and assists.
FanDuel. Marvin Bagley notched 22 points last night, starting in the place of the injured Alex Sarr. With Sarr still sidelined tonight (along with Tre Johnson and Corey Kispert), I like Bagley to continue to produce down low. The big man has produced over the years when given the opportunity - he’s cleared this line in 17/23 games with at least 24 minutes over the last three seasons. The Sixers have already declared Joe Embiid out tonight, and Andrew Drummond is questionable after leaving last game with a knee injury. Even if the latter plays, this is a nice spot for Bagley against the Sixers’ below average paint defense.
FanDuel. Theo Johnson has only cleared 4+ catches in three of 12 games, but in six of those misses, he had three grabs. But this is a plus spot against the Patriots defense that allows the sixth most targets per game (8.42) and the fifth most catches (6.33) to the position. And the Pats run the eighth most man coverage - Johnson has the most receptions against man in Jaxson Dart’s starts. Gamescript should run negative for the Giants in the second half, and the jury is out on whether Dart will be running at his normal rate after his concussion issues. Johnson should see at least six targets, by my projections, making this a nice spot at plus or short odds.
FanDuel. While the rush attempts line for TreVeyon Henderson admittedly opened way too high this week at 15.5, the movement all the way down to 13.5 reads as an overreaction. Henderson has cleared this line in four straight games, which included an 18-6 carry split with Rhamandre Stevenson who returned last week (to a 6 attempt, 5 rushing yard performance). Even if Henderson cedes a bit more, this is too good of a spot not to back the rookie. The Giants are 32nd in both DVOA and EPA per attempt against the run. It’s a matchup the Patriots are sure to look to exploit, especially as 7-7.5 point favorites. I have Henderson projected at 15 rush attempts, so I’ll gladly buy the dip here.
FanDuel. Anthony Black has cleared this line in five of the last seven games, serving as a key piece for the Magic in the absence of Paolo Banchero. With the Magic All Star sidelined, Black has the ball more in his hands - he’s ripped off 47 shots (and 15 free throws attempts) over the last three games. The Bulls struggle defensively on the perimeter, and play fast (2nd in pace).