Prop's Picks (2 Live)
FanDuel. Darnell Washington has cleared this line on four of his last six full games. Continuing to pace the Steelers tight ends in snaps and routes, Washington has developed into a reliable target for Aaron Rodgers. I expect the high powered Detroit offense to force the Steelers into a passing gamescript. And with Detroit stingy against backfield in the passing game (Lions are top five in both targets and receptions allowed to running backs), I expect Rogers to utilize his tight ends more on check downs. Plus, the Lions have been gashed the last two weeks by the position, as they’re missing both of their starting safeties. I’d bet this up to over 25.5 yards.
B365/MGM/Caesars. Coming off a big time performance against the Packers, I’m looking for Courtland Sutton to find similar success against the Jaguars. Sutton has cleared this line in 10 of his last 14 games, and Bo Nix has been peppering him with targets of late: 34 over the last four contests. The matchup is sound, as the Jaguars allow the third most receiving yards per game to outside pass catchers (122.3) at the highest target rate (46.1%; data per FantasyPoints). In an important game for playoff seeding, I expect Nix to continue to lean on his leading receiver. I’d bet this up to over 61.5 yards.
FanDuel. Adonai Mitchell has become the number one target for the depleted Jets receiving corps. With at least six targets in each game as a Jet, he’s cleared this receiving yards line in three of his last four games. Coming off a solid 58-yard showing with quarterback Brady Cook, I like Mitchell to continue to produce against the Saints. I’d bet this up to over 43.5 yards.
DraftKings. This is an interestingly low line for George Pickens, who has cleared this line in seven of the ten full games played with CeeDee Lamb this season. The Cowboys have talked about looking to get Pickens the ball, and even though they’ve been eliminated from the playoffs, there could be a bump in Pickens first reads to keep him happy in hopes of resigning him this offseason. It isn’t the best matchup, but Pickens has regularly cleared this line in suboptimal spots. I’d bet this to -150.
B365 at +115. Tre’Von Moehrig has only cleared this line in six of thirteen games this season, but this should be a solid opportunity to rack up the tackles. In nine of the last ten Bucs games, an opposing box safety has cleared this line - and Moehrig spends more than 50% of his snaps around the line of scrimmage. He’s the Panthers leading tackler on pass plays, and third best against the run - so he should be involved no matter the gamescript. And I do believe this game should see a close split in time of possession, at the worst. I’d bet this up to -135.
FanDuel. Jalen Coker has come on strong for the Panthers, clearing this line in three of the last four games, including 60 and 74 yards the last two weeks. With Tet McMillan not playing at 100%, Coker has lead the Panthers in targets each of the last two weeks. Despite a lower volume passing attack typically. The Panthers should struggle to run against the Bucs rush defense with ranks 3rd in EPA per attempt (per FTN). The Bucs defense has struggled against the slot of late, and I like Coker to capitalize. I’d bet this up to 41.5 yards.
DraftKings. I’m going to stay on Maxime Raynaud today - the rookie had the best game of his young career (29 points and 11 rebounds) on Thursday in this same matchup against the Trail Blazers. Sacramento will continue to be without Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and Drew Eubanks, which opens up a ton of opportunities for the Stanford product. Coming off a game with a 27% usage rate and 16 paint touches, Raynaud should feature prominently again tonight.
FanDuel. I’ll take a stab on Kyle Monangai again, despite him staying under his rush attempts line last week. He had cleared this line in the four games prior, and there are some positive variables working in our favor this week. Firstly, D’Andre Swift is questionable with a groin injury - even with him suiting up, I’d respect Chicago to lean on Monangai a bit more. And the Bears receiving core is decimated, with both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden out. Throw in some windy conditions, and I envision a run-heavy gameplan for Chicago.
FanDuel. Riding the Cooper Flagg train. The number one pick has cleared this line in seven of his last eight games, with the lone miss against the Thunder. He’ll now face the 76ers who allow the eighth most at-rim points, and are well below average against transition and pick and roll initiators - Flagg’s most prominent playtypes. I’d bet this to over 19.5 points.
B365/MGM. Deebo Samuel is under this long reception line in five of seven games he’s suited up alongside Terry McLaurin (with one over in heartbreaking overtime fashion, as I know all too well). He’ll have a brutal matchup against the Eagles secondary - mainly Cooper DeJean in the slot (Deebo has a 71% slot alignment rate over the last three weeks, since Terry McLaurin’s return). I’d bet this line down to under 17.5.
DraftKings. His role isn’t what it once was, but Ajay Mitchell is still hitting this line consistently. He’s over in eight of ten games when playing between 16 and 26 minutes. And this is a spot against the Timberwolves that don’t defend on the ball as well as years past.
Caesar’s. I’m continuing to buy Jaylon Tyson stock. He’s cleared this line in 8/13 games without either Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen (the former is out today), and remains the most consistent Cavs role player since entering the rotation and starting lineup. He gets a matchup against the Bulls again (21 points and 2 rebounds on Wednesday) - I expect him to continue to produce against a team that’s below average against Tyson’s strengths.
FanDuel. Maxime Raynaud should find himself in a nice spot against the Trailblazers on Friday night. The Kings will be without Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and Drew Eubanks - the latter two leaving the team thin at center. Raynaud has shone when given the oppportunity, including clearing this line in five of his last seven games. The Blazers are below average both against points in the paint and rebounds allowed.