Prop's Picks (5 Live)
DraftKings. His role isn’t what it once was, but Ajay Mitchell is still hitting this line consistently. He’s over in eight of ten games when playing between 16 and 26 minutes. And this is a spot against the Timberwolves that don’t defend on the ball as well as years past.
Caesar’s. I’m continuing to buy Jaylon Tyson stock. He’s cleared this line in 8/13 games without either Evan Mobley or Jarrett Allen (the former is out today), and remains the most consistent Cavs role player since entering the rotation and starting lineup. He gets a matchup against the Bulls again (21 points and 2 rebounds on Wednesday) - I expect him to continue to produce against a team that’s below average against Tyson’s strengths.
FanDuel. Maxime Raynaud should find himself in a nice spot against the Trailblazers on Friday night. The Kings will be without Zach LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, and Drew Eubanks - the latter two leaving the team thin at center. Raynaud has shone when given the oppportunity, including clearing this line in five of his last seven games. The Blazers are below average both against points in the paint and rebounds allowed.
DraftKings. It took a few weeks for Rashid Shaheed to get up to speed in Seattle, but he’s registered 67 and 74 receiving yards the last two weeks, on twelve total targets. In those two games, he has a 23.8% first read rate (10 total targets, per FantasyPoints). It’s a fantastic matchup against the Rams defense - LA has been a funnel to outside receivers, allowing the fourth most receiving yards per game (122.3), on the ninth highest yards per route run (2.10) to pass catchers aligned out wide. Shaheed is out wide for 74% of his snaps as a Seahawk, and should be able to cash in against the soft zone coverage. I’d bet this up to over 37.5 receiving yards.
FanDuel. Tyler Kolek should find himself with a good sized workload for the Knicks tonight. Coming off his surprising performance in the NBA Cup Finals, I’m guessing the Knicks lean on their role players in the first leg of a back to back. Josh Hart, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson have been declared out, along with Deuce McBride and Landry Shamet.
DraftKings. Usage play on Donte DiVencenzo - who has cleared this line in four of six games without Anthony Edwards. Without Mike Conley either, DDV will be relied on to run the offense. Good matchup against a Grizzlies defense that are a top five matchup for opposing point guards. I’d bet this up to over 20.5.
FanDuel. I’m continuing to key in on Jaylon Tyson. In his elevated role, he’s cleared this combined line in 12 of 16 games with at least 24 minutes played. Whether he starts or comes off the bench, he should be in for another solid workload, as the Cavs will be without both Evan Mobley and Sam Merrill. The Bulls play fast (third in pace) and allow plenty of rebounds (sixth most). Tyson thrived in this matchup earlier this season with 17 points and 7 rebounds in 31 minutes - I expect more of the same tonight.
DraftKings. It’s a tougher matchup for Karl-Anthony Towns tonight. The Spurs allow the seventh fewest points plus rebounds to opposing centers this season. Against teams in the top 20 of both points in the paint allowed and rebounds allowed (Spurs are 7th in both categories), Towns is under this line in six of nine games. It’s a very tough individual matchup against Victor Wembanyama and Luke Kornet, and when the former is on the court, Towns becomes a big time foul liability. I’d bet this down to under 31.5.
Bet365 at -120. If you strip out the game he left early with an injury, Ja Morant is averaging more than 12 rebounds plus assists per game (30.4 minutes). Having come back from said injury and playing 25 minutes three days ago, I do think Morant should be in line for 30 minutes tonight. He’s cleared this line in nine of his last ten full games, and he’ll be facing the Clippers, who allow the fifth most rebounds plus assists to opposing point guards. Morant looked engaged in his first game back, and I’m banking on that to carry over today.
FanDuel. De’Von Achane had crushed this line in each of his last three games, before falling just short in one half against the Jets before leaving with an injury. With no injury designation tonight, I’m expecting a massive workload for the running back. The Steelers not only allow the eighth most running back scrimmage yards, but also allow their opponents the most plays per game. I expect 21-22 touches for Achane, no matter the gamescript. That should put Achane conservatively in the 120s - I’d bet this up to over 114.5.