DraftKings. Since returning from injury, Blake Cashman has cleared this line in six of his last seven, with the lone miss at 9 combined tackles. The Cowboys are a plus opponent, allowing the sixth most tackles per game overall (63), and the third most linebacker opportunities (per PFF data). The Vikings have struggled with time of possession with JJ McCarthy under center, and I like that to continue today against a motivated and improving Cowboys defense. I’d bet this up to -150.

DraftKings. Jalen Johnson has cleared this line in six straight games, including a 14 rebound effort against the 76ers (11 in regulation). The 76ers are allowing the ninth most rebounds per game, and with Joel Embiid manning the middle, Johnson should be in prime position to crash off of his action.

DraftKings. This is a line I’d have considered betting even if Daniel Jones was starting. Michael Pittman Jr. has failed to clear this line in seven of 13 games, and the matchup is brutal. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest receiving yards to outside pass catchers, at the lowest yards per reception (10.31) and yards per route run (1.36). Pittman runs 71% of his routes out wide, and when he does venture into the slot, his average depth of target is only 5.4 yards. And oh yeah, the Colts are starting 44-year old Philip Rivers, whose arm strength was below average back in 2020. I have Pittman’s long reception projected around 14 yards. I’d bet this down to under 15.5.

DraftKings. Rookie Chimere Dike has evolved into a reliable target for Cam Ward and the despondent Titans offense. Without Calvin Ridley, Dike has cleared this line in four of six games this season. Running 68% of his snaps out of the slot (68% of his catches, and 72% of his targets, per PFF) - he’ll face a 49ers defense that’s allowed the most catches to that alignment this season (8 per game) at the second highest catch rate (77%, per Fantasy Points Data). The Titans have been dialing up more screens for the dynamic receiver, with nine designed reads over the last six games, as well as a 21% first read rate.

DraftKings. Despite Colby Parkinson coming on strong with Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, this is a high line for the tight end. Parkinson only has two catches this season that have exceeded 16 yards, and his average depth of target is only 3.0 yards. Running 75% of his routes in-line, the Lions have allowed the second fewest catches (1.6 per game) and the lowest yards after catch per reception (2.62) to that alignment this season. With Detroit running man coverage at the second highest rate, I’m expecting a ton of targets going towards Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, who both thrive against man.

FanDuel. Wan’Dale Robinson has cleared this line in eight of thirteen games this season, including five of the last six games started by Jaxson Dart. With the second most catches out of the slot in the NFL, he will face the soft defense of the Commanders. Washington has allowed the fourth most receptions per game out of the slot (7.5) at the third highest catch rate (76%) and third highest target rate (35.2%).

DraftKings. Rookie safety Malachi Moore has cleared this line in four of his last six games. Now an every-down fixture in the secondary, the uptick in tackles coincides with Moore lining up more in the tackle box. Proficient against both the run and in coverage, I like the matchup here. Not only are the Jaguars a top four opponents for safety tackles (per PFF data), but the Jets should struggle to hold on the ball (even more than usual) with rookie Brady Cook making his first start under center.

FanDuel. Chase Brown had seven catches on seven targets against the Ravens two weeks ago. Granted, Joe Burrow did throw 46 passes in that game, but I do like Brown in this matchup. The Ravens defense has allowed a lot of running back receiving volume of late, and Burrow will once again be without Tee Higgins. The rest of the Bengals receivers are low volume, and Mike Gesicki has a tough matchup against Kyle Hamilton. Brown is now over this line in four of the last five with Joe Burrow and without Tee Higgins since becoming a starter last year - and 16 total catches in two of those instances against the Ravens.

FanDuel. Since Week 10 (the game after the Kyle Monangai breakout), the Bears have the third highest neutral gamescript run rate at 53% (per RotoViz). The Bears lead the NFL at 66 offensive plays per game, and the Browns have allowed their opponents 64, 64 and 75 offensive plays in Shedeur Sanders’ three starts. Given the weather and the Browns injuries on the offensive line, I love the Bears to dominate time of possession in this game. Monangai, who has out carried Swift each of the last two games, should be poised to clear this line. Even assuming a 50/50 carry split would get us home, as I have the Bears running backs conservatively projected at 29 rush attempts in total.

DraftKings at -130. Stephon Castle has cleared this rebound line in 13 of 14 full games he’s played this season. Even with Victor Wembanyama returning to play limited minutes tonight, Castle should continue to crash the boards from the wing. The Thunder are league average in rebounds allowed (53.5 is 15th most), and I expect Castle to come out aggressive in the NBA Cup semifinals.

DraftKings. This line is too low for Brandon Williams, even in his role off the bench. Williams is averaging 14.9 combined points plus assists in just 21.6 minutes per game. Even off the bench, he should still see 20-24 minutes tonight, especially as D’Angelo Russell is out. Great matchup too.

DraftKings. This should be a nice spot for Coby White, who has cleared this line in five of seven games. The Bulls will be without both Ayo Donsunmu and Kevin Huerter in the backcourt, which should bump White’s usage even more. The Hornets struggle defensively on the perimeter, and White should benefit both as a pick and roll imitator, and on the fastbreak.

DraftKings. Back to the Jaylon Tyson well we go. The sophomore has cleared this line in eleven of fourteen games when playing at least 24 minutes, and 8/9 without Jarrett Allen. With Allen and Sam Merrill remaining out, Tyson should continue to see a strong minutes floor tonight. It’s a soft matchup against the Wizards (for everyone on the Cavaliers), and one that should be played at a breakneck pace, with both teams in the top ten of tempo.

FanDuel. While it’s looking like Mike Evans will return, I still like Chris Godwin to reel in four catches. With Evans sliding in on the outside, opposite the struggling Emeka Egbuka, I expect Godwin to assume the majority of the snaps in the slot - and that’s where the Falcons have been burned of late. Atlanta has allowed 22 receptions out of the slot the last three weeks, coinciding with Dee Alford assuming that role in coverage (18 receptions have been in his coverage, per PFF). With Evans back in the fold, Godwin’s 4.7 average depth of target on his seven targets last week is likely to translate over. And with Cade Otton doubtful, I do like Godwin to serve as a security blanket.

DraftKings. After a slow start to his season, Derrick White has come on strong of late, clearing this line in ten of his last 14 games. Playing second fiddle to Jaylen Brown, I expect White’s counting stats to continue on this upward trajectory over the course of the season - his 23% usage rate is easily the highest of his Celtics tenure. He gets a solid matchup against the Bucks tonight - Milwaukee has struggled to defend perimeter ball-handlers all season. The Bucks have specifically struggled defending the three, which is where White should thrive as a shooter and facilitator. I’d bet this to over 24.5.