Daniel's Picks (12 Live)
Mayfield is over this rushing yards mark in 7/13 games this season, and may be forced to take off in this matchup. Atlanta’s defense has ranked top-10 in pressure rate all season, and could give a banged up Bucs O-line problems. Mayfield has regressed as a passer since his elite play to start the season, with the 2nd lowest EPA per play among QBs since Week 7. He has dealt with injuries to himself and his WRs, but remains a mentally tough QB who scrambles effectively. The Falcons have a talented secondary, so I envision Mayfield using his legs to pick up some key first downs in this game.
Both teams come into this short week off ugly losses. I don’t expect this to be a very exciting game. Tampa Bay lost their RG Ben Bredeson to injury, and TE Cade Otton’s status is ‘doubtful.’ The Falcons remain without WR1 Drake London, which really hinders this offense with Kirk Cousins under center. Both defenses take away what the opposing offenses do well. The Bucs are a top-tier run-stuffing unit, while the Falcons secondary limits explosive pass plays. Bucs WRs Mike Evans & Jalen McMillan were activated from the IR this week, but their action may be limited. The field at Raymond James Stadium got torn up in the rain last week, so beware of the turf monster in this one.
Herbert is currently 'questionable' to play as he deals with a fractured left hand, but was able to finish last week's game after sustaining the injury. He's a tough QB that's played hurt many times throughout his career. Herbert is likely going to have to take snaps out of the shotgun formation, and the Eagles pass rush is getting back to its ways since getting back Nolan Smith Jr. and acquiring LB Jaelan Phillips. The Chargers O-line has been in shambles since losing stud LT Joe Alt, so Herbert may be forced to take off. He is over this rushing yards mark in 9/12 games this season. I don't think a hand injury will stop Herbert from using his legs when he needs to.