Cooper Kupp has recorded 4+ receptions in 11/12 career playoff games! His lone miss was in a 27-9 blowout win over the Vikings in 2024, in which his talents were not required. Kupp is a playoff vet who won the 2021 Super Bowl MVP. His experience could be key for Sam Darnold, with Patriots top CB Christian Gonzalez likely matching up heavily against Seattle’s star WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kupp caught 5 receptions on 5 targets against the 49ers, and 4 on 6 targets against the Rams thus far in the postseason. At plus odds, there is great value on Kupp getting that 4th catch for us.

Simple logic for my play on the under here- Two excellent defenses, and two mastermind coaches that are elite game managers. The Seahawks defense was #1 in DVOA this season, allowing a league low 17.1 PPG. The Patriots offense scored just 21.5 PPG against top-10 defenses this year. Both QBs can be turnover-prone when pressured, and both defensive lines can dial up the heat. Sam Darnold and Seattle’s offense has thrived using play-action schemes, but the Patriots defense led the NFL in EPA per play against it. This total feels inflated because it’s the Super Bowl. If this were a regular season game, the number might be more like 43.5.

I’m taking Drake Maye to go over on his rushing yards and rush attempts. Maye led all QBs in the NFL in scramble yards, and should be on the move against a Texans defensive front that ranked 3rd in pressure rate this season. As a result of that constant QB pressure, they also gave up the 4th most rushing yards per game to opposing QBs.

Drake Maye has used his wheels effectively all season, and continued to do so in the first round of the playoffs. Maye was under duress against the Chargers, and ran 10 times for 66 yards. He will now face the Texans vaunted pass rush, and will likely be forced to take off. Houston can get after the quarterback, but they were bottom 10 in the league defending against QB scrambles. Maye has 7+ rush attempts in 9 games this season. New England’s O-line surrendered 52 sacks, 4th most in the NFL. I expect Maye to trust his instincts, and look to alleviate Houston’s pressure with his own rushing attack. I like the over on Maye’s rush attempts and rushing yards props.

Unders burned me in yesterday’s divisional round games, but I still feel they were the right plays despite the results. We saw the Patriots play to a low scoring 16-3 game agains the Chargers. The Texans-Steelers matchup also went under this 41 mark, in a game that was 7-6 entering the 4th quarter before Houston’s defensive TDs blew it open. The Texans will be without star WR1 Nico Collins, and the Patriots defensive line has been playing great ball with DE Milton Williams healthy again. 17-13 final score prediction.

Sam Darnold’s oblique injury has me very suspicious. If his ability to throw downfield is compromised, San Fran can look to stack the box and stop Seattle’s run game. If Drew Lock comes into this game, us Niners bettors will be jumping for joy to have a +7 ticket in our pockets. Despite all the 49ers injuries, I still think they can keep this within a score, or even pull off the upset. Kyle Shanahan and Mike MacDonald know each other extremely well, and played to scores of 17-13 and 13-3 in their first two meetings this season. I like the Under and the 49ers catching a TD on the spread.

Seattle & San Fran played to the under in each of their first two meetings this season, and I expect more of the same in this Divisional Round matchup. The 49ers are now without their star TE George Kittle, and WR Ricky Pearsall remains ‘questionable’ to play. This #1 DVOA ranked Seahawks defense has been able to stifle Kyle Shanan’s offensive scheme. Despite all the injuries to the 49ers defense, they remain a capable unit that limited Seattle’s offense to 13 points in both matchups this season. Sam Darnold is expected to play, but appeared on the injury report with an oblique issue during Thursday’s practice. That type of injury is major cause for concern for a QB. Take the Under.

Everyone knows it's on Josh Allen to be the superhero and will the Bills to victory. Against the Jaguars elite run defense, Allen scored twice and had 11 rush attempts, including a tush-push that went for 10 yards where Allen refused to go down. With a limited WR group that struggles to create separation, I expect Allen to use his legs in the red zone. Considering he's scored 16 TDs this season, I feel obligated to bet this prop at -115.

The Broncos were 10-7 to the under this season, and have played to the under in 8 of their last 10. Denver’s defense finished the year ranked #1 in sacks, yards per play, and red zone efficiency. Buffalo has struggled against the run, but their secondary has been playing at a high level. Buffalo stifled Bo Nix last season in his playoff debut, holding him to 13/22 for 144 passing yards in a 31-7 Bills win. Both of these teams are run-first offenses that use up the play clock. The Broncos will want to keep Josh Allen off the field, and the Bills will try to stop the run and bait Nix into a mistake. Hard to not like a playoff Under at Mile High.

C.J Stroud was a runner early this season, and cleared this rushing yards mark in 7 of the first 8 games. He has 9 games with 10+ rushing yards. In 2 playoff games last season, Stroud had exactly 6 rushes for 42 yards in each game. He’s scrambled less as of late, but he will likely be forced to against a loaded Steelers defensive line. T.J Watt, Alex Highsmith, and a long list of Pittsburgh pass rushers will make Stroud uncomfortable in the pocket. If the blitz is getting home and Stroud takes some early sacks, look for him to use his legs.

I think Pittsburgh is getting too much love. If not for a Tyler Loop missed FG and a comedy of errors from Baltimore (in BOTH matchups down the stretch of the season), we wouldn’t even be talking about the Steelers. Their offense ranked 25th in yards per game, and will be up against the best defense in the NFL with both of their elite CBs healthy. The Texans defend short passes well, which the Steelers offense relies on. Against top 10 defenses this year, Rodgers threw 5 TD/4 INT. Stroud might struggle in a hostile outdoor environment, but I actually like the Steelers man coverage-heavy matchup for him. The game total is down to 38, so I’m backing the better defense here.

The 14-win Patriots deserve all the credit for what they accomplished this season... but I'll attempt to take some away. Some are calling their strength of the schedule, "the easiest in 25 years." New England played just one team with a winning record (Bills). They've faced bad teams and backup QBs- Tyler Huntley, Spencer Rattler, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Quinn Ewers, and Brady Cook to name a few. Drake Maye will now face a Chargers defense that ranks 2nd in EPA per play since Week 10. DC Jesse Minter is dialed in, and runs a scheme that takes away explosive plays (what the Pats do best). I can't justify laying 3 and the hook for a 2nd year QB making his playoff debut. Bolt up.

The 49ers failure to steal the #1 seed forces them to head east, and play the Eagles in an outdoor road game. Totals above 44 played outdoors in the wild card round are 31-10 to the Under! This dynamic 49ers offense is not the same without their elite LT Trent Williams, whose hamstring injury may sideline him again. WR Ricky Pearsall is also dealing with an injury, who SF really need to stretch the field. The Eagles offense has been clunky all year, especially without their star RT Lane Johnson, who hasn't played since Week 11 and remains 'questionable'. Jalen Hurts will be forced to play conservatively against a zone-heavy SF defense. This game stays under the key number of 44.

I’m playing the Under on the biggest playoff total in the Wild Card round. Despite nearly 70% of the public bets going to the Over, this total is moving down to 50.5 on some books. The Jags should look to exploit Buffalo’s weak rush defense, and the Bills will want to get their rushing yards leader James Cook rolling, which will keep the clock running. Jaguars DC Anthony Campanile’s defense runs a heavy rate of zone, stops the run, and forces takeaways. Josh Allen might play his classic “hero ball”, but Jacksonville allowed the 5th least explosive plays this season. Even if we get a 27-24 score we still cash this Under. Grab anything above 51.

Packers RB Josh Jacobs suffered a knee contusion in Week 11, and saw a decrease in usage in the final month of the season. After resting in Week 18, Jacobs says his knee feels the best it has in a long time. He is over this rushing yards mark in 6 games this season, and had 17+ carries in 8 games. Weather in Chicago is expected to impact this game, which could force both teams into a run-heavy approach. The Bears rank 27th in yards per carry allowed, and 28th in defensive rush DVOA. Jacobs and the Packers rush attack can control this game.