C.J Stroud was a runner early this season, and cleared this rushing yards mark in 7 of the first 8 games. He has 9 games with 10+ rushing yards. In 2 playoff games last season, Stroud had exactly 6 rushes for 42 yards in each game. He’s scrambled less as of late, but he will likely be forced to against a loaded Steelers defensive line. T.J Watt, Alex Highsmith, and a long list of Pittsburgh pass rushers will make Stroud uncomfortable in the pocket. If the blitz is getting home and Stroud takes some early sacks, look for him to use his legs.

I think Pittsburgh is getting too much love. If not for a Tyler Loop missed FG and a comedy of errors from Baltimore (in BOTH matchups down the stretch of the season), we wouldn’t even be talking about the Steelers. Their offense ranked 25th in yards per game, and will be up against the best defense in the NFL with both of their elite CBs healthy. The Texans defend short passes well, which the Steelers offense relies on. Against top 10 defenses this year, Rodgers threw 5 TD/4 INT. Stroud might struggle in a hostile outdoor environment, but I actually like the Steelers man coverage-heavy matchup for him. The game total is down to 38, so I’m backing the better defense here.

The 14-win Patriots deserve all the credit for what they accomplished this season... but I'll attempt to take some away. Some are calling their strength of the schedule, "the easiest in 25 years." New England played just one team with a winning record (Bills). They've faced bad teams and backup QBs- Tyler Huntley, Spencer Rattler, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, Quinn Ewers, and Brady Cook to name a few. Drake Maye will now face a Chargers defense that ranks 2nd in EPA per play since Week 10. DC Jesse Minter is dialed in, and runs a scheme that takes away explosive plays (what the Pats do best). I can't justify laying 3 and the hook for a 2nd year QB making his playoff debut. Bolt up.

The 49ers failure to steal the #1 seed forces them to head east, and play the Eagles in an outdoor road game. Totals above 44 played outdoors in the wild card round are 31-10 to the Under! This dynamic 49ers offense is not the same without their elite LT Trent Williams, whose hamstring injury may sideline him again. WR Ricky Pearsall is also dealing with an injury, who SF really need to stretch the field. The Eagles offense has been clunky all year, especially without their star RT Lane Johnson, who hasn't played since Week 11 and remains 'questionable'. Jalen Hurts will be forced to play conservatively against a zone-heavy SF defense. This game stays under the key number of 44.

I’m playing the Under on the biggest playoff total in the Wild Card round. Despite nearly 70% of the public bets going to the Over, this total is moving down to 50.5 on some books. The Jags should look to exploit Buffalo’s weak rush defense, and the Bills will want to get their rushing yards leader James Cook rolling, which will keep the clock running. Jaguars DC Anthony Campanile’s defense runs a heavy rate of zone, stops the run, and forces takeaways. Josh Allen might play his classic “hero ball”, but Jacksonville allowed the 5th least explosive plays this season. Even if we get a 27-24 score we still cash this Under. Grab anything above 51.

Packers RB Josh Jacobs suffered a knee contusion in Week 11, and saw a decrease in usage in the final month of the season. After resting in Week 18, Jacobs says his knee feels the best it has in a long time. He is over this rushing yards mark in 6 games this season, and had 17+ carries in 8 games. Weather in Chicago is expected to impact this game, which could force both teams into a run-heavy approach. The Bears rank 27th in yards per carry allowed, and 28th in defensive rush DVOA. Jacobs and the Packers rush attack can control this game.

Kyren Williams had 13 carries for 72 yards when these teams met in Week 12. Williams was able to go over this rushing yards mark, despite L.A’s rush attack getting phased out in a shootout. This time around, I expect the Rams to handle business early and play from in front. In a positive game script, Williams should get a steady diet of carries. He has 65+ rushing yards in 12 games this season, and can exploit a Panthers defense that finished the year 25th in defensive rush DVOA. I like Williams to go over his rushing yards total and to find the end zone.

I have no problem playing the Rams at -10, as I think they're likely to win this game by 20+. The Panthers finished the season with a -68 point differential, the worst mark for any playoff team in history. Carolina scored 14 or fewer points in 8 games this season, and are going to get outpaced by L.A's #1 ranked offense. Carolina's upset win in their first meeting this season was a fluke. They are not on the Rams level. I'll be playing Rams alternate spreads up to -23.5 (+420).

Kenneth Gainwell is now the Steelers leader in receptions. He’s been a reliable short area target for Aaron Rodgers, and should continue to get looks tonight with WR DK Metcalf and TE Darnell Washington out for Pittsburgh. Gainwell has 30+ receiving yards in 6 games this season, and in 4 of his last 7. He has seen 6+ targets in 5 of his last 7 games, and had 6 receptions on 7 targets for 27 yards when these teams played a month ago. Gainwell should see enough volume to clear this receiving yards total.

This line is up to -160 on other books, so grab it now. Henry is a rushing TD away from tying Marcus Allen for 3rd all-time. He is also in a race against James Cook for most rushing yards, and Jonathan Taylor for most rushing TDs this season. The winner of this game takes the AFC North title and gets into the playoffs, so Henry should see his normal workload of 18+ carries. Henry has scored in 9/16 games this season, and has 6 in the last 2 games. This inconsistent Ravens offense will only go as far as Henry can take them.

In the last 11 meetings between these teams, the under is 9-2. Lamar Jackson has not been himself this season, so the Ravens offense should be looking to lean heavily on their workhorse Derrick Henry. The Steelers remain without WR1 DK Metcalf, and won’t have TE Darnell Washington either which really limits their lackluster offense. Pittsburgh’s defense will get a big boost with stud DE T.J Watt, and DBs James Pierre & Brandin Echols returning. The Steelers are 5-2 to the Under at home this season. This will be a grinding affair in the Pittsburgh cold that determines the AFC North winner. 19-16 final score prediction.

Luther Burden has emerged as one of the most talented rookie wideouts this year, and has been feasting as of late. Burden is over this receiving yards mark in 3 straight games, and has seen 6+ targets in 4 straight. The Bears are still playing to secure the NFC’s #2 seed, and it doesn’t seem like starters will be resting in this Ben Johnson Vs. Dan Campbell showdown. Detroit’s secondary is in shambles, with injuries to DBs Terrion Arnold, Kerby Joseph, Brian Branch, and Thomas Harper making their pass defense very thin. Burden has a 25+ yard grab in each of his last 3, and could burn the Lions for a couple big plays to cash this.

Burden only has 2 TDs this season, but scored last week against the 49ers. Burden’s Anytime TD odds are set at a modest +140 because the breakout rookie wideout is getting way more usage late in the season. Burden gets a great matchup against a man coverage-heavy Lions defense, that hasn’t been able to overcome all the injuries to their defensive backs. I like the Bears to put up points, and for Burden to close the season on a high note.

Dallas will be starting Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, and George Pickens in this Week 18 game, which is enough for me to play them as short favorites. Their offense should simply outpace the Giants, who will be playing without WR Wan’Dale Robinson, TE Theo Johnson, and their two best offensive linemen Andrew Thomas & Evan Neal. The Cowboys won’t have RB Javonte Williams, but they can attack New York’s porous secondary that will be without FS Jevon Holland and CB Cor’Dale Flott. Prescott & Pickens are playing for incentives, and the Cowboys can finish Brian Schotteinheimer’s first season as head coach at .500 with a win here over a bad Giants team.

The Bengals have been playing much better football over the course of the last 5 games. Joe Burrow has the offense firing on all cylinders, and this once horrid Cincy defense has started to turn it around. The Browns will hit the road, where they are 6-18 ATS since 2023. Cleveland will be without both of their TEs, which could really hinder Shedeur Sanders. The Bengals blew out the Dolphins and Cardinals by 20+ in their last two games, and they can do the same to the Browns.