We want to look more closely at the numbers for QB Cade Klubnik, whose overall stats (3041 YP, 29 TDP and only 5 picks, impress. Against Georgia, Louisville, and South Carolina, however, Klubnik passed for a grand total of 1 TD, with two picks, as Clemson scored 12.7 ppg and lost all three. Note that vs. App State, The Citadel, Wake Forest, and a then-struggling NC State, Klubnik tossed a combined 15 TDP and 0 picks. SMU is far better than the latter group of foes, as Rhett Lashlee's bold decision to sit returning starter Preston Stone and go with more-mobile Kevin Jennings at QB has paid dividends all autumn for the Mustangs, who haven't lost since September 6 vs. BYU. Play SMU (at Charlotte)

Is the wrong team favored? Considering how the Bulldogs took care of the Longhorns without much trouble (30-15) at Austin on October 19., maybe not. Moreover, this rematch is being played in Georgia's backyard at Atlanta, where Kirby Smarty's team already dominated Clemson earlier this season. Texas was beneficiary of the easiest possible SEC slate, skipping every serious contender except Georgia (a game UT lost), and the offense hasn't exactly been percolating lately, especially QB Quinn Ewers, who has passed for under 200 ypg across his last three outings. The Bulldogs had it much tougher schedule-wise in the SEC this season, and note Kirby Smart's D held the Horns to just 29 rush yards in the first meeting. Play Georgia (at Atlanta)

For a team like ASU, that fed off emotion and adrenaline every week, the dynamics aren't going to be the same in what will feel like a cavernous AT&T Stadium. We suspect Iowa State might have the formula to slow down Cam Skattebo with another rock-ribbed Jon Heacock defense that allowed under 20 ppg, and despite yielding more yardage than usual on the ground this season should still have the scheme and physicality to limit Skattebo's damage. We also like the way Cyclones QB Rocco Becht has had to pull a few games out of the fire this season, including a couple of those on the road (such as high-pressure wins at Iowa and Utah). Play Iowa State (at Arlington, Tx)

The matchup at Yager Stadium seven weeks ago on October 19 deceived a bit as the RedHawks were cruising with a 30-6 into the 4th Q before a couple of late decorative TDs from the Bobcats, including a TD in the last six seconds, made the scoreline look more respectable. Vet Miami QB Brett Gabbert tossed 3 TD passes in the game while top RedHawk RB Keyon Mozee ran for 111 yards as the RedHawks were in control almost the entire way. Ohio has not run effectively either of the past two meetings vs. Miami, and the Bobcats gathered momentum mostly vs. the vast bottom of the MAC down the stretch. Strikingly similar wins for Miami last two years. Play Miami-Ohio (at Detroit)

While West Point 2024 is a great storyline, just who Army beat is open to some debate. Also no question the option slowed as the schedule toughened down the stretch, scoring barely 19 pg across the past four after tallying nearly 44 pg in the previous five. Brave QB Bryson Daily has also carried the ball 65 times the past two (vs. Notre Dame and UTSA) and could be excused for wearing down. The Navy grudge match is also still on deck next week for West Point. Yes, the Greenies laid an egg vs. Memphis, but they'd won eight straight prior, blanked a similar Navy option three weeks ago, and Jon Sumrall is still 28-12 vs. the line since 2022 (Troy & Tulane). Play Tulane

Iowa State is in a better position to get to the Big 12 title game next week than the others tied with it at the top of the loop table. Conditions will be cold in Ames but no worse than this game at the end of November a year ago played in a blizzard at Manhattan when Cyclone RB Abu Sama ran like an all-terrain vehicle when gaining as astounding 276 yards on just 16 carries, with three long scores, as ISU won 28-21. The Cyclones have momentum after pulling out last week's win at Utah, while K-State has fallen short three times when seriously challenged this season, when the skittery tendencies of QB Avery Johnson (tossed 3 picks in each loss) resonated. Play ISU

Why is ODU favored here? The Monarchs' season has gone down the drain with three straight defeats (albeit close) that have shut the door on bowl eligibility and left a bitter taste in Norfolk. The defense has routinely sagged when needed, while ODU has too often wasted a competent infantry gaining nearly 200 ypg. Note that Butch Jones has Ark State bowl eligible and an undefeated 5-0 at home this season, with dual-threat soph QB Jaylen Raynor off of 3 TD passes last week in the win at ULM. Play Arkansas State

What was a rare promising season in Monroe that once stood at 5-1 has all disappeared in November as ULM has dropped five in a row and almost played itself out of bowl eligibility. The Warhawks get no sympathy from rival UL-Lafayette, which is gearing up for the Sun Belt title game next week in Lafayette and bounced back smartly from the close loss vs. USA by putting 51 on Troy last week, the second time in three games the Cajuns have cracked the half-century mark. Last week it was done with backup QB Chandler Fields, in the cockpit again with starter Ben Woolbridge out, but Fields (22 career TDP) stepped right in with 323 YP in the romp past the Trojans. Play ULL

Home edge is just a myth to Wake Forest, which hasn't covered a spread (0-7-1) in its last eight games at Winston-Salem. The Deacs have endured a steep descent the past two seasons since QB Sam Hartman, the master of Dave Clawson's "slow-mesh" offense, departed. Much-traveled portal add Hank Bachmeier hasn't been the answer as his career continues to trend downward since his frosh season at Boise. Duke is bowl-bound and 6-1-1 vs. the number its last eight this season, so a vote for competence on Tobacco Road. Play Duke

Not sure we've seen a more unlikely trend in college football this season, as Iowa, of all teams, has turned into an over machine. This despite entering the campaign on a 21-6 under run and due to injuries now onto a third QB (CSU soph transfer Jackson Stratton) this season. New offensive coordinator Tim Lester, however, has been more aggressive in his play calls than predecessor Brian Ferentz, and the result is a 9-2 over mark in one of the more-startling totals turnarounds we can recall. Meanwhile the Cornhuskers are sky-high entering Iowa City after scoring 44 on Wisconsin last week and getting bowl-eligible for the first time in eight years with a 473-yard offensive show vs. the Badgers. Play Nebraska-Iowa Over

The Yellow Jackets haven't beaten Georgia since 2016, Kirby Smart's first season as HC at Athens, as Harrison Butker kicked a game-winning 51-yard RG at the gun. But Tech has covered the last two vs. Georgia since Brent Key took over as HC after the first month of the 2022 campaign, and Key is 13-6 as a dog, including a couple of losses this season when QB Haynes King wasn't available. He's returned the past two weeks, splitting snaps with fast-improving frosh Aaron Philo, but the fact he's available is a plus for GT, which knocked off unbeaten Miami on November 9. Note that the Bulldogs are just 2-8 vs. the line this term and 8-16-1 vs. the spread since last season. Play Georgia Tech

SEC sources tell us that things have not been good this week at Ole Miss after last week's setback at Florida. Lane Kiffin has reportedly been "unapproachable" since the loss at The Swamp, according to sources. Perhaps Ole Miss comes out mad in the Egg Bowl and takes out its frustrations on MSU...or maybe not. Remember, the Bulldogs have only once by more than this spread all season, when Arkansas caught fire five weeks ago. Since since frosh QB Michael Van Buren strapped into the cockpit in Starkville, MSU has handily covered big numbers vs. Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, and Tennessee, and various SEC sources have been saying that Jeff Lebby is "going to get somebody" soon. Could it be the Rebs? Play Mississippi State

That wasn't Air Force we saw on the field into November. The Falcons team we've seen this month? That's the Force we know! Back-to-back wins and three straight covers signal a turnaround, and the familiar option has started to cook, first for 344 YR and 45:08 of possession in beating Fresno, then another 271 YR and 41:56 of possession in last week's punishing 28-0 shutout of Oregon State. Better late than never on the switch to quick-footed soph QB Quentin Hayes, too, whose playmaking ability is superior to early-season starter John Busha. The Wolf Pack has had an extra week to prepare for the option, but Nevada owns only the 95th-ranked rush defense and has surrendered 26 rush TDs. Play Air Force

While Jeff Monken deserves lots of Coach of the Year votes, the best Army win was probably over North Texas. The new American schedule for this season also kept Tulane and Memphis off the slate, which has broken as kindly as it could for West Point. Notre Dame is a different animal, with Al Golden's robust, top-10 defense already having shut down Navy's version of the option (complete with Wing-T elements) last month by a 51-14 count. Irish coach Marcus Freeman is also 16-6-1 against the line since last season, including Virginia's very backdoor cover last week. Play Notre Dame.

Two more wins should put Ole Miss into the College Football Playoffs, but I'm not sure this one comes easy in The Swamp. The Gators have failed to cover just once (when forced to use third string quarterback Aidan Warner at Texas) since mid-September, as Billy Napier has kept his team playing hard and apparently saved his job for another year. Exciting freshman quarterback DJ Lagway was back in the lineup for last week's upset of LSU, and his presence is important, because he has the wheels to perhaps diffuse the voracious Ole Miss pass rush that devoured Georgia's Carson Beck two weeks ago. This may not be easy for the Rebels. Play Florida.