Atlanta played in Week 3 like I thought the New Orleans would and vice versa. The Falcons absolutely dominated Green Bay, while the Saints gagged away their home opener against the Raiders. Though they have injury concerns, including two significant offensive weapons in Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson, I was confident enough to pick the Saints to win the weak NFC South Division at the start of the year. Tyler Shough has accounted for nine total touchdowns this season for New Orleans and I think he adds three more in a high-scoring victory. Don't underestimate the raucous home crowd either. New Orleans 31, Atlanta 26.

In four starts against the White Sox this season, Gavin Williams went under this line in three of them. Not to mention, with the day off between Games 1 and 2, the Guardians have a rested bullpen and will relieve the American League strikeout leader if he runs into any early trouble. It's not a good formula for Williams pitching into the 6th inning of Game 2. In a must win game for Cleveland, I think their ace throws five solid innings and doesn't come out for the 6th.

San Francisco has major issues with injuries - let's blame the electrical substation once again. With Mike Evans likely out this week, the 49ers have George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and who else to catch passes? How about a guy who has 102 receptions for over 900 yards last year? Christian McCaffrey. Denver allows the third most receiving yards to running backs and CMC has caught four passes for 41+ yards each of the last two weeks. Expect another heavy workload through the air for the 49ers star RB.

It's never ease to hit the Under on a Josh Allen prop but I'll give it a try this weekend. He's dealing with a knee injury of sorts and is facing a Patriots defense than hasn't allowed a quarterback to throw for 190 yards in three games. Look for Buffalo to lean on the running game, which has been highly effective this season. In two games against Mike Vrabel's defense last year, Allen threw for 253 yards (including 71 in the fourth quarter as Buffalo was chasing points) and 193 yards (in a comfortable win). I think the Bills QB ends up closer to 225 passing yards than 250 this week.

Game flow should definitely be in our favor for this prop. Tennessee is terrible and should be getting trucked by Baltimore, which means having to throw plenty in the second half. Wan'Dale Robinson has a 21% target share and 28% first read share from Cam Ward and faces a Ravens defense which has allowed the second most receptions and 8th most yards to wide receivers thus far. He's also gone over this prop in 2 of 3 games to date as a Titan. I'm expecting closer to 50 yards again on Sunday.

For my field goal prop this week, I'll roll with Green Bay rookie kicker, Trey Smack, who has made multiple three-pointers in 2 of 3 games this season. Plus, Tampa Bay surrendered a league high 10 made field goals through the season's first three weeks. In what should be an ugly game in Florida on Sunday, the Packers' rookie is my top value play for kickers this week.

This one is based purely on the eye test as I watched the Cougars closely last week against my Arizona Wildcats. Washington State hung tough well into the second half against Washington and Arizona, while also having played at a good Kansas State team. Meanwhile, in Fresno State's only tough game on paper, they were walloped by USC, 39-0. Look for the Cougars' defense to keep the Bulldogs' offense in check throughout. WSU needs this game if they have any chance at making a bowl game after a 1-3 start. Washington State 24, Fresno State 17.

Do you really want to pick against Drew Rasmussen here? I don't! The Rays have won each of Rasmussen's last 12 starts since the All-Star Break! 12! In three of his four starts against the Yankees this season, the Rays starter has pitched at least six innings and given up one run or less. Gerrit Cole has been good against Tampa Bay with a 2.50 ERA this season but I feel more comfortable playing the hot hand of Rasmussen against his AL East rivals in Game 1.

We have a Sun Belt battle between Georgia State, who is 4-0 against the spread, and Old Dominion who is 0-4 against the number this season. The difference in the teams' offenses is clear: Georgia State is #1 in the Sun Belt in yards per game (468.3) and 2nd in points per game (38.8). Meanwhile, ODU is 14th (last) in YPG (287.5) and 12th in PPG (22.3). I can't tell you that I've watched much of either team this season but the metrics lead me to think this will be at least a two-score result. Georgia State 35, Old Dominion 24.

I just don't see the North Carolina offense scoring much in this game. Notre Dame's defense is surrendering only 8.3 points per game and 199.3 yards per game, which is the best in the country. With rain projected in at least the second half, look for Notre Dame to get ahead early and for the contest to turn into a punt-fest in the second half. I would be mildly surprised if the Tar Heels got to double-digits. Notre Dame 31, North Carolina 7.

If weather doesn't interfere, this top-25 matchup has shootout written all over it. The Crimson Tide have averaged 48 points per game and the Bulldogs 43 PPG this season. Both teams are combining to average more than 1,000 total yards per contest. And I'm not sold on either defense as both have shown leaks thus far. Which young QB, Keelon Russell or Kamario Taylor, takes a step forward towards an invitation to the Heisman Trophy ceremony? Expect at least six combined touchdown passes in the game. Alabama 38, Mississippi State 31.

Since the new MLB playoff format was introduced in 2022, Game 3 of Wild Card series' have proven to be low-scoring. In fact, four of the five Game 3s saw six or less total runs. We should see a combination of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies, so don't expect the chilly Atlanta offense to score at will. And with all hands on deck for the Braves (minus ace Chris Sale likely), expect a flurry of pitching changes to play the matchups. This feels like a 3-2 or 4-2 game either way.

I hate laying -172 odds for any bet but Cubs 3B Alex Bregman is 7 for 8 vs. Padres starter Michael King in his career. That is serious domination of a matchup. Plus, Bregman is coming off a 4 for 4 game on Sunday. I'll also be betting his Over 1.5 H+R+RBI at plus-money on several sportsbooks.

I'll lay the -1.5 run line for the home team in Game 1 of this short series. Chris Sale is 3-0 vs. Philadelphia this season with a 2.08 ERA in four starts. In those first three games, Atlanta won each by multiple runs. Meanwhile, Philadelphia starts Jesus Luzardo in Game 1, though I'm not sure how much length they'll give him after coming off the Injured List on Sunday. Luzardo through a two-hit shutout vs. Atlanta in September, but is he 100% now. Who knows? Either way, I think the Braves win Game 1 by a score of 5-2 and sweep the Phillies, who look to be on a downward trajectory at this point.

If there's an area that can be exploited in the Philadelphia defense, it's the middle of the field. And Luther Burden III is Chicago's best chance of finding success in that matchup. Last week, two Commanders slot receivers, Stefon Diggs and Antonio Williams both had at least 40 yards receiving and a score. I would be surprised if Bears third string quarterback Case Keenum takes many shots down the field, so using Burden as a safety blanket makes the most sense. I think Burden also tops 40 yards as the Bears attempt to have a semblance of a passing attack on Monday night.