Of Troy Melton's 14 starts for Detroit, 11 have seen eight runs or less. On the other side, Noah Cameron has only surrendered five runs in his last 37.2 innings pitched. Based on how well both pitchers are throwing, I would be surprised to see any semblance of a high-scoring game on Friday night. Plus, 5 of the last 7 meetings this season have gone under this number.

I feel this line is a gift from the sportsbooks so take that for what it's worth. The Brewers are 8-1 in their last nine home series', including 5-0 after the All-Star Break. After a 22-0 thrashing on Tuesday, Milwaukee fell to Seattle 7-5 on Wednesday but rallied late after a dreadful start. Mariners starter George Kirby enters with a 4.55 road ERA and 5.05 daytime ERA, neither of which bode well on the road at one of the National League's best teams. Robert Gasser is nothing special as a starter for the Brewers, but Seattle's lineup isn't very good so he should have a better than average outing. I'm risking 1.5 units for the first time in a while on an MLB play.

A late add of the Cardinals ML as I noticed that starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has held current Reds hitters to a .103 average over 39 at bats. Plus, St. Louis has won his last three starts and McGreevy has a daytime ERA of 2.61, nearly 1.5 runs lower than at night. Brady Singer is the opposite for Cincinnati, with a 5.57 daytime ERA vs. 4.20 at night. Give me the Cardinals to win this rare five game series with a victory this afternoon.

The Nationals were on a nice roll but have tanked since losing superstar James Wood to the Injured List and having traded away several key players at the trade deadline. But it looks like they have a future ace on their staff in Cade Cavalli. The right hander has thrown at least six innings in seven straight starts and is over this prop in 9 of his last 10 outings. Even though he's pitching on the road, Cavalli isn't facing a dynamo of a lineup in the Rangers. Texas is 19th this season in team batting average (.243). I think Washington's starter lasts at least six innings and gives his team a great shot to win the second game of this series.

The Red Sox offense has scored 20 runs combined in the first two games of this series but don't be surprised if pitching rules in Game 3. For Arizona, Brandon Pfaadt has been Cy Young-like since being recalled from AAA in late-June. He hasn't given up more than two runs in any of his nine starts since then, including four straight outings with zero earned runs allowed. On the other side, Payton Tolle has given up two runs or less in 6 of his last 7 outings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 4-2 type of game on Wednesday afternoon with two pitchers who are rolling right now.

I'm backing Atlanta's new acquisition, pitcher Tyler Mahle, who has given up only one run in 12 innings since being acquired in early-August. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Zebby Matthews posted a 7.66 ERA in July and a 6.30 ERA thus far in August. With the wind blowing out to right field, look for the Braves left handed power hitters (Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris, Ozzie Albies) to crush the homer-prone Matthews (18 home runs allowed in 91 innings). I think Atlanta bounces back Tuesday night on the road.

Pete Alonso is on a ridiculous tear and let's take advantage on Tuesday against the Yankees and Carlos Rodon. Alonso is riding a nine game hitting streak and is 18 for 34 (.529) during that time. The Orioles first baseman has gone over this prop in 8 of those 9 games, including five home runs and seven total extra base hits. Against Carlos Rodon, who returns off the injured list, Alonso is 2 for 10 with a home run in his career. I'll ride the hot streak until it ends, especially at plus money.

I will gladly back the Phillies on the run line at home yet again with Cristopher Sanchez on the hill. The lanky left hander is 10-1 at home this season with a shiny 1.41 ERA. Philadelphia has won each of Sanchez's last five home starts by multiple runs, with a run differential of +34. Marlins hitters are a combined 9 for 53 (.170 average) so I wouldn't expect much from them offensively. Look for the Phillies to raise Janson Junk's 5.35 road ERA and win this one by daylight on Monday night.

Padres hitters are hitting a collective 22 for 52 (.423) against Guardians starter Tanner Bibee lifetime. Cleveland hitters are a combined 13 for 70 (.186) against San Diego starter Casey Mize. The Padres are 16-5 over their last 21 games. The Guardians are 6-16 over their last 22. One team is going in the right direction and the other is not. Plus they have the apparent hitting advantage. I'll take my chances with those trends again on Sunday.

We're getting the combination of an awesome hitter who's on a hot streak and who owns a .600 career lifetime average against the opposing starting pitcher. Over his last six games, Yandy Diaz is 13 for 28 (.464 average) and reached at least two total bases in five of them. Against Trevor Rogers, Diaz is 6 for 10 lifetime with three doubles. Though the Rays have a comfortable 6.5 game lead in the American League East, losing three straight games to the Orioles wouldn't inspire confidence. I think Diaz posts another multi-hit performance and goes well over 1.5 total bases on Sunday.

Since May 30th, the Red Sox are 0-3 when Sonny Gray starts against the Blue Jays and 10-0 when he faces any other team. Such a bizarre stat but it's true. Fortunately, on Saturday the Red Sox are playing the Pirates so backing Gray is a must. Boston has lost 6 of 7 games and needs a win in the worst way. Gray is 14-3 this season, including 5-0 vs. the National League. I'm backing the trends again on Saturday.

Troy Melton continues to dominate for the Tigers this season. Detroit has won 11 of his 13 starts in 2026 and Melton sits at 7-1 with a sparkling 1.46 ERA. He's only given up more than two earned runs once, but not since June 9th. Current White Sox hitters are a collective 8 for 49 (.163 average) against Detroit's surprising ace. Who needs Tarik Skubal after all when you have Troy Melton!? (And yes, I'm kidding). Nonetheless, it's time to back Detroit's top starter until he implodes, which doesn't appear to be anytime soon.

I feel disgusting picking the worst road team in the National League, backed by a pitcher with a 6.63 ERA this year, but here we are. Somehow the Rockies are 5-4 in Kyle Freeland's last nine starts so there's a faint positive. And the current Giants roster is hitting a collective 9 for 58 against him (.155 average). But this is mostly a fade of San Francisco starter Landon Roupp. The Giants have lost 15 of his last 17 starts dating back to May. He has a 4.89 ERA at night, nearly two points higher than his daytime ERA. Colorado just took the final two games in Arizona so we'll see if they can make it three straight wins on Friday.

Let's ride the hot streak with Athletics slugger Tyler Soderstrom. He has at least one hit in all ten August games, including eight extra base hits. Tonight, Soderstrom faces Kumar Rocker, a pitcher he's fared well against over their careers. In ten career at-bats, Soderstrom has four hits, three walks, and three strikeouts. Basically Soderstrom has either gotten on base or struck out in each AB. And of the four hits, three have been doubles. I'll take my chances for another extra base hit in what should be prime hitting conditions in Sacramento tonight.

Guardians starter Parker Messick has given up two or fewer runs in six straight starts and 8 of his last 9 outings for Cleveland. Keider Montero hasn't been as effective of late for Detroit, but 9 of the last 12 games he's pitched in have gone under 8.5 runs dating back to June. These two pitchers faced each other head-to-head on May 19th in Detroit, a 4-3 Cleveland victory (and under this total). With these two teams separated by half a game in the American League Central, look for another close, low-scoring affair in the Motor City on Thursday afternoon.