Matt's Picks (3 Live)
I will not keep repeating myself, but you can assume that I'm playing -1 on money line prices like this. And I guess I could just post in Discord, but I'd like people to know who are not in there what I'm thinking. And I believe the Yanks cruise again but as I've said, just will not do -1.5 and get burned on some random T9 run by Miami.
Love this time of the NHL season because so apparent which teams have a reason to care. Played Detroit already as it must get two points against a bad team tonight for its playoff hopes, and Los Angeles is in the same spot in the West. Truly no excuse losing this against a bad Leafs team playing out the string and at the end of a trip. If this were a weekday and I was writing the newsletter, I'd probably include Kings ML as one of my parlay legs (won again Friday -- please sign up if haven't). But for these purposes will stick with -1 as I really don't see worse than a push. But it's hockey and a goalie can win by himself.
Probably the series I was most interested in as a bettor to open this weekend was this one. Because I wasn't sure about the Sacramento park factors after one year or how the Athletics would fare there again. Well, after one game yowza. It is definitely a hitters' park and the A's blew Houston's doors off Friday -- we cashed. So let's ride again. The pitchers don't even matter honestly.
I expect the Cardinals to be my National League version of the Twins (Rockies and White Sox are exempt and assumed): Just hammer against them away. You know, we will lose some but not many. Saturday starter Dustin May was raked in his debut. Not my favorite Tigers pitcher ever in former Cardinal Jack Flaherty, so I will eschew -1 on this one and just bet straight. Normally at this number probably not, but I think 20 cents-ish low.
April in the NHL has us making unusual decisions -- i.e. backing a road favorite. But the Wings must, must get two points here and they got a gift with the long-eliminated Blueshirts not starting Igor Shesterkin in net but Jonathan Quick. Including OT/SO losses, the Quickster is 5-18. The former Conn Smythe winner allowed six in his last start a few weeks ago.
Always a fan of outlier 3.5 totals when all the other books have 2.5 as is the case for this Bundesliga matchup on Saturday. Both are top half of the table in teams of fewest goals allowed. If Hoffenheim is held to just two then I think golden. The sides drew 1-1 in November, with one an own goal and the other in the 88th minute. Four straight and six of Mainz's past seven in all competitions has landed Under 3.5. Hoffenheim starting midfielder Leon Avdullahu is out and the side has stayed Under 3.5 in three straight matches at home. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
Most of our books have Real Sociedad at -1 so I'll jump at this fair -0.5 price for Saturday. The hosts are seventh in the La Liga table and trying to push for European qualification next season. The White and Blues are unbeaten in eight at home, although there are a few draws in there. And that's all that likely gets us vs. Levante, which is second-to-bottom in the table and has allowed the second-most goals (48). It has gotten points in only six of 14 away league matches. The sides drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture in December. Real Sociedad allowed the tying goal four minutes into second-half stoppage time on a penalty via Adrián de la Fuente.
To be clear the Kings don't want to win but have in their past two at home against bad teams. New Orleans has nothing to play for, either, is in the second of a back-to-back and has lost six in a row, the past four by double digits. I could see Zion Williamson and others take a seat tonight in a meaningless game. It's probably the last chance Sacramento has for a home win this season. Just lose by 5 is all I ask. The model has the Kings winning outright. Wouldn't shock me.
I will play more than usual today because I like teams in home openers -- there are several Friday -- as I believe there are only a few times a year a baseball team is truly fired up for a game, and that's one of them. Might not matter once the first pitch is thrown, but I like to think it does. I don't sweat the Athletics' record as maybe no team had a tougher opening six games. Houston starting pitcher Cristian Javier was not great in 2025 returning from major injury and obliterated in his 2026 opener. I think the A's win but won't turn down a home team I think likely wins getting +1.5. I'd be fine with +1 at -135.
Last year, the Yankees had 94 wins and 23 of those were of the one-run variety, which is about a quarter. That's why I just refuse to play -1.5. Mental block. Why throw a one-run victory out the window automatically? Another good spot for -1 if want a cheaper option and don't mind a possible push. Just don't see the Yanks losing their home opener. The Marlins have a nice record, but they have been beating up on the Rockies and White Sox in South Florida. The Toros from "The Bad News Bears in Breaking Training" could beat the Rockies and White Sox.
The Cardinals have I think overachieved thus far as they are expected to be awful, although shortstop JJ Wetherholt looks like the real deal and is a top NL ROY candidate. It's their first road game, and I expect them to finish at least 10 games under away this season. Love me some teams in home openers, and I sure prefer new Tigers lefty Framber Valdez over the Cards' Michael McGreevy even if McGreevy was terrific in his 2026 debut. If looking to save some $$, this would also be a solid -1 spot (-125) or Tigers not bat bottom 9 (also -125). I often look that way on money lines north of -150.
We don't get alt spreads often in our system (I use them frequently in my daily newsletter parlay), so I'm going to jump on this as it just popped in. (May as well play +3.5 at -150.) The Dodgers could score 10 off Miles Mikolas, but L.A. starter Emmet Sheehan is nothing special and shelled in his 2026 debut. The Dodgers are going to get every team's best shot on the road -- it's their first away game. Surely the Nats can hang within two in their home opener.