Matt's Picks (5 Live)
April in the NHL has us making unusual decisions -- i.e. backing a road favorite. But the Wings must, must get two points here and they got a gift with the long-eliminated Blueshirts not starting Igor Shesterkin in net but Jonathan Quick. Including OT/SO losses, the Quickster is 5-18. The former Conn Smythe winner allowed six in his last start a few weeks ago.
Always a fan of outlier 3.5 totals when all the other books have 2.5 as is the case for this Bundesliga matchup on Saturday. Both are top half of the table in teams of fewest goals allowed. If Hoffenheim is held to just two then I think golden. The sides drew 1-1 in November, with one an own goal and the other in the 88th minute. Four straight and six of Mainz's past seven in all competitions has landed Under 3.5. Hoffenheim starting midfielder Leon Avdullahu is out and the side has stayed Under 3.5 in three straight matches at home. Our model has 3.2 goals scored.
Most of our books have Real Sociedad at -1 so I'll jump at this fair -0.5 price for Saturday. The hosts are seventh in the La Liga table and trying to push for European qualification next season. The White and Blues are unbeaten in eight at home, although there are a few draws in there. And that's all that likely gets us vs. Levante, which is second-to-bottom in the table and has allowed the second-most goals (48). It has gotten points in only six of 14 away league matches. The sides drew 1-1 in the reverse fixture in December. Real Sociedad allowed the tying goal four minutes into second-half stoppage time on a penalty via Adrián de la Fuente.
To be clear the Kings don't want to win but have in their past two at home against bad teams. New Orleans has nothing to play for, either, is in the second of a back-to-back and has lost six in a row, the past four by double digits. I could see Zion Williamson and others take a seat tonight in a meaningless game. It's probably the last chance Sacramento has for a home win this season. Just lose by 5 is all I ask. The model has the Kings winning outright. Wouldn't shock me.
I will play more than usual today because I like teams in home openers -- there are several Friday -- as I believe there are only a few times a year a baseball team is truly fired up for a game, and that's one of them. Might not matter once the first pitch is thrown, but I like to think it does. I don't sweat the Athletics' record as maybe no team had a tougher opening six games. Houston starting pitcher Cristian Javier was not great in 2025 returning from major injury and obliterated in his 2026 opener. I think the A's win but won't turn down a home team I think likely wins getting +1.5. I'd be fine with +1 at -135.
Last year, the Yankees had 94 wins and 23 of those were of the one-run variety, which is about a quarter. That's why I just refuse to play -1.5. Mental block. Why throw a one-run victory out the window automatically? Another good spot for -1 if want a cheaper option and don't mind a possible push. Just don't see the Yanks losing their home opener. The Marlins have a nice record, but they have been beating up on the Rockies and White Sox in South Florida. The Toros from "The Bad News Bears in Breaking Training" could beat the Rockies and White Sox.
The Cardinals have I think overachieved thus far as they are expected to be awful, although shortstop JJ Wetherholt looks like the real deal and is a top NL ROY candidate. It's their first road game, and I expect them to finish at least 10 games under away this season. Love me some teams in home openers, and I sure prefer new Tigers lefty Framber Valdez over the Cards' Michael McGreevy even if McGreevy was terrific in his 2026 debut. If looking to save some $$, this would also be a solid -1 spot (-125) or Tigers not bat bottom 9 (also -125). I often look that way on money lines north of -150.
We don't get alt spreads often in our system (I use them frequently in my daily newsletter parlay), so I'm going to jump on this as it just popped in. (May as well play +3.5 at -150.) The Dodgers could score 10 off Miles Mikolas, but L.A. starter Emmet Sheehan is nothing special and shelled in his 2026 debut. The Dodgers are going to get every team's best shot on the road -- it's their first away game. Surely the Nats can hang within two in their home opener.
How much is Victor Wembanyama worth? Apparently almost 7 points as the Spurs were as high as -4.5, but he will sit in LA. Now, I have learned not just fade teams because their star is out. It's almost as if the opponent is flat not playing him. But the Clips are playing for seeding, healthy and on normal rest. The Spurs have a mega-showdown Saturday in Denver: Wemby vs. Nikola as a lead-in to the Final Four. So I tend to think this might be not a punt game but ... mail it in at the half if down double-digits type one.
Utah has some wiggle room in terms of a West wild-card spot, but slumping Seattle has to have two points. The Kraken haven't been quite the home cash cow of late but are still an excellent 23-13 ATS there. Utah is 18-20 ATS away. The Mammoth remain without top-six forward Barrett Hayton (25 points). They lead the season series 2-0, but Karel Vejmelka gave up three in each and those were in Salt Lake City. Also before Seattle made the excellent trade for Toronto's Bobby McMann.