This is too low Friday. ...

Let's go Magic!

Last day of the RS makes for some unusual decisions -- road ML favorite. The Kings are in the playoffs but have a shot to avoid Colorado in Round 1 with a win and a bit of help elsewhere. I probably would have passed anyways because Calgary has been so profitable at home. But the Flames are not opting to go with either of their two main goalies but giving Arsenii Sergeev his NHL debut. So weird, I was almost named Arsenii. Sergeev is not a top prospect and struggled in the ECHL this year at 5-13-12 with a 3.29 goals against average and .898 SV. If LA decides to not push and starts ruling guys out, forget this, but don't know why it would.

What a stupid afternoon. Could have gone 0-3 or 3-0. The word "bullpen" has officially been banned in mi casa (Snoopy is upset). Might try a week where I only do F5 ML favorites and not worry about relievers. Always wanted to try that. The Yankees I'm gonna have to write about soon if things don't change because that might be the worst bullpen I've seen in years ... I digress. San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. is in the lineup after hosing us Wednesday in a surprise sit. Seattle's Luis Castillo has been a fine pitcher for years but has been raked in his past two. Wonder if he's healthy? Probably many Padres ML plays out there but I think this is a not-bad number.

Normally I might not bother with +1.5 in Sacramento because games there can be so high-scoring. But that should not be the case today with winds howling in. The lower scoring a game, obviously the better chance it ends in a one-run margin. Corey Seager is among a few Rangers out on a getaway day. Jack Leiter has a 6.52 ERA in two road starts. His road splits were not very good last year, either. Model has the A's winning 4.6-4.2.

I have listened to all the Discord peeps. Lot of plus-money dogs players daily in MLB, and they have been doing well (Chris420, Lilhati, Tyson). Don't think the Tigers should be underdogs. Frankly my urge is to play +1.5 at -180. Most MLB teams have about a quarter of their games in a given year end in a one-run margin. Since I'm not getting +1 (that and -1 my ideal MLB wagers), I'll basically rub poison ivy on my face and not play a gift +1.5 when I think the number is a bit off. Instead of a full unit at a too-high -180, I'll do a half on this. I try to learn/evolve. Can almost promise the D loses by a run now.

Well, well surprise. Shohei Ohtani will pitch as normal but not hit. Guess he got a minor knock on an HBP. So this is auto-play. And the Mets' Clay Holmes has been excellent. Not a smash spot with winds blowing out but there might be five games this season Shohei isn't hitting barring injury. (Makes me want to re-evaluate his pitching props now.)

Just not my NBA year, clearly. Even the excellent Mike Barner told me in a DM off-site he can't bet sides this year because of all the tanking -- but Mike, our Bulls just got that second first-round pick from Portland! (Chicago will trade it for a bag of magic legumes and Kendrick Perkins.) Alas, I am not as good as Mike is at player props. So probably my quietest betting NBA year in a long while. Let's try this, though. Maybe there's some Steph/Kristaps magic in a pick-and-roll. They have barely played together. And Curry can always go for fitty. Also maybe Steve Kerr's last game as coach as I mentioned in the newsletter. This is just a flier, obviously, not a prediction.

This game is meaningless but fun for hockey fans to see Macklin Celebrini vs. Connor Bedard, the 2024 and 2023 No. 1 overall NHL Draft picks, respectively. Celebrini is a bit ahead right now but also surrounded by a better roster. He also got to play on Team Canada and Bedard didn't. My point being, Bedard will be fired up as he has been a bit surpassed (so far) and was the more touted guy. The Hawks should score plenty on Yaroslav Askarov (3.68 road GAA). Obviously more likely Bedard has a helper than goal (+145) -- he has gone nine straight games without a goal.

BetMGM is the only book of ours that is showing Andre Drummond for Wednesday's game (it's live) vs. Orlando, and I want to take this now because I think when the rest post it goes to at least 20 if not higher. No Joel Embiid, because of course not, so Drummond should be looking at 30 minutes or so if not hurt or in foul trouble or in a blowout, and I don't see a rout anyways. Not completely out of the question he gets close on rebounds alone as Drummond closed the season with three straight games of at least 12 boards and easily topped this number in each.

Atlanta was good to us with a great late comeback Tuesday, and I see no reason why it won't win again Wednesday -- hopefully not with the sweat. The Marlins are at the end of a six-game trip without a day off so on fumes. Plus, 2-6 away. Teams always put emphasis on the final game of a homestand, which is where the Braves are. They are off Thursday, so we shouldn't have to worry about anyone sitting here. Bryce Elder has a 1.02 ERA in three starts. Miami's Chris Paddack (0-2, 6.14) hasn't been any good since his 2019 rookie year in San Diego. -1 would be a solid cheaper alternative if you don't mind the push risk.

Not sure why, but it appears the Bolts are trying tonight despite being locked into second in the Atlantic and opening the playoffs vs. Montreal -- easily the first-round series I will care about most. Andrei Vasilevskiy is allegedly playing. And pretty much all healthy starters as of now. You don't start Vasy and put a bunch of scrubs out there. Is this some must play 15 minutes Nikola Jokic reason? Dunno but maybe some individual things like Nikita Kucherov trying to win a third straight Art Ross Trophy or Vasy trying for a rare 40 wins. If this were any team but the Rangers, I still might pass. But they don't want to accidentally win and potentially slip down the lottery ladder a spot.

When looking at pitchers outs and if leaning Over, it's important to know if said team is off the next day because then it could use the bullpen more freely on day-of pitcher play. The Giants play again in Cincy tomorrow, so I sure think the veteran Mahle goes at least five unless he's getting shelled or hurt. Mahle has gone at least five/90 pitches in B2B outings. And pitching in Cincy always means more as he started his MLB career with the Reds in 2017. The SL model has Mahle at 5.7 innings and our other books have him at O/U 15.5. This might flip to that so let's grab it.

I don't watch a ton of non-World Cup/European Championship soccer unless I'm betting, but I'll watch this. Should be some glorious offensive football with all the talent on the pitch. (Look at me learning the terminology.) But there were only 3 goals in the first leg and 3 is what our model has here. It gives Under 4.5 a rare A grade. I'm only going a half-unit because I'd enjoy as a fan seeing something like 5-4 and it may well happen, but I'm told it's hard to score in soccer. Like Halpert in "The Office," I last played the sport seriously from second to fourth grade on the orange team.

The Red Sox look all kind of broken, don't they? Sawx, Yanks (at least lately) and Mets all flailing. It's Christmas in April! Not really sure why Boston is even favored today at 3-8 away and rocked the first two of this series. Young pitcher Connelly Early looks very promising but he's also a rookie and a lefty. The Twins rank 9th in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws. I thought Minnesota would be awful this year and an auto-road fade. Maybe it still will be but has very overachieved thus far. Twins starter Simeon Woods-Richardson is competent and has two good outings in three so far in 2026 -- and much better home splits in 2025. Considered ML but solid +1.5 price.