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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past four NBA seasons, Matt has returned a whopping $6,634 to $100 bettors. That includes finishing 217-130-1 (plus $2,182) in the 2024-25 NBA season. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past five college basketball seasons, Matt is up $1,008. He also has returned $1,437 to $100 players over the past three NFL seasons, and is coming off an outstanding NHL season in which he went 235-155-21 (plus $2,022). In the 2025 college football season, Matt finished 76-53 (plus $960). Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
LAST 9 NBA PICKS
+409
RECORD: 6-2-1
# 5 NBA EXPERT
+409
6-2-1 IN LAST 9 NBA PICKS

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Matt's Past Picks
Apr 01 2026, 1:40 am UTC
League
Tigers
5
@ Diamondbacks
7
+169
5-2 in Last 7 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Extremely good price on Arizona's Carlos Santana. I didn't think he'd start tonight considering he's 2-for-23 career with five strikeouts vs. Tigers starter Casey Mize. On the year, Santana is just 1-for-12 with three Ks. He could definitely be pinch-hit for later in the game.

Pick Made: Tue 10:02 pm UTC on BetMGM
Apr 01 2026, 1:40 am UTC
League
Tigers
5
@ Diamondbacks
7
+110.5
8-5 in Last 13 MLB Picks
Analysis:

Only 9.5 on our board (9s) so I'll throw a half down. These clubs combined for 15 runs in Game 1, but a much better pitching matchup tonight it would appear in Casey Mize vs. Brandon Pfaadt. Not a huge fan of either lineup overall. Pfaadt had a 3.24 ERA at home last season and no Tigers have seen him much. Ditto Arizona batters vs. Mize. Well, Carlos Santana has 23 at-bats against Mize but two hits for a .087 average.

Pick Made: Tue 11:56 am UTC on FanDuel
Apr 01 2026, 1:00 am UTC
League
Kraken
0
@ Oilers
3
+467
20-11-9 in Last 40 NHL ATS Picks
Analysis:

Seattle has a single win on this six-game trip that concludes in Edmonton. The Kraken have lost their past six trips to Rogers Place and are just 5-9-2 since the Olympic break. Joey Daccord (should be him -- Kraken taking forever to make it official) has lost three in a row and has a 4.52 GAA this year against the Oilers. For Edmonton, Matt Savoie has stepped up in place of the injured Leon Draisaitl with goals in three consecutive games. Connor Ingram has won back-to-back outings in net.

Pick Made: Tue 11:44 pm UTC on BetRivers
Apr 01 2026, 12:00 am UTC
League
Mavericks
99
@ Bucks
123
+409
6-2-1 in Last 9 NBA Picks
+244
3-1-1 in Last 5 NBA ATS Picks
+248
8-5-1 in Last 14 DAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

Second of a back-to-back and a random, worthless one-game road trip for the Mavericks so I don't get why they would put up much of a fight. PJ Washington leads a handful of guys sitting out. The Mavs are only favored because the Bucks are tanking, too, and obviously still without Giannis. Welcome to the modern-day NBA.

Pick Made: Tue 11:06 pm UTC on BetMGM
Mar 31 2026, 11:15 pm UTC
League
Athletics
5
@ Braves
2
+112
8-4 in Last 12 MLB ML Picks
Analysis:

The Athletics are the only team without a win and are hitting just .170. Shea Langeliers has three homers and six RBI. The rest of the team has one HR and five knocked in. And it's journeyman Aaron Civale on the hill today. He pitched for three teams in 2025 and not particularly well for any. Atlanta pitcher Jose Suarez was 2-0 this spring with a 3.38 ERA. Just be careful with Brent Rooker, who is 4-for-5 with three solo homers career off Suarez.

Pick Made: Tue 7:38 pm UTC on FanDuel
Mar 31 2026, 11:07 pm UTC
League
Rockies
1
@ Blue Jays
5
Analysis:

The Jays were embarrassed last night by the horrible Rockies, so I expect the bats to come out hot tonight. Rox starter Ryan Feltner likely won't put up much resistance with his career 9-26 mark and 5.19 ERA. Most everyone thought Toronto's Max Scherzer would retire after last season but the 41-year-old is back for one more year. The future Hall of Famer is pretty mediocre these days, but I think the Jays light up Feltner enough to where this cashes.

Pick Made: Tue 4:23 pm UTC on BetRivers
Mar 31 2026, 11:00 pm UTC
League
Islanders
3
@ Sabres
4
+467
20-11-9 in Last 40 NHL ATS Picks
+518
21-11-2 in Last 34 BUF ATS Picks
Analysis:

Hopefully favorites can make one big last push the final two weeks or so of the NHL regular season as underdogs have still been doing well of late. The Isles were small upset home losers Monday, and tonight's starter in net David Rittich had to see action in that 8-3 defeat to Pittsburgh in relief of Ilya Sorokin. Rittich hasn't been great in March with a 4.18 GAA. Overall, he's 3-6-2 away. Buffalo has been off since Saturday and is 10-2-2 in March. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is 3-1-1 with a .937 save percentage in his last five games. The Sabres have beaten Rittich and the Islanders both times this season.

Pick Made: Tue 4:37 pm UTC on BetRivers
Mar 31 2026, 10:40 pm UTC
League
Pirates
8
@ Reds
3
+110.5
8-5 in Last 13 MLB Picks
Analysis:

Not really sure why the Reds are even home dogs as the Pirates still obviously can't hit the ball whatsoever and it's not Paul Skenes tonight but rookie Bubba Chandler. He's a touted prospect but had a 4.01 ERA in 31.1 innings last year and not great this spring with a 6.55 ERA in 11.0 innings. Cincy's Brandon Williamson hasn't pitched in the majors since 2024 but was lights out this spring with a 1.65 ERA in 16.1 innings to earn a rotation spot.

Pick Made: Tue 11:47 am UTC on bet365
Mar 31 2026, 2:10 am UTC
League
Guardians
4
@ Dodgers
2
+112
8-4 in Last 12 MLB ML Picks
+1778.5
46-19 in Last 65 CLE ML Picks
Analysis:

Actually a reasonable number on the Dodgers ML because Roki Sasaki struggled this spring. This would be one of those where I would love -1. L.A. was off Sunday (super rare) so the bullpen is fully ready if Sasaki still has issues. The Guardians just played four tough games in Seattle and are in the Sunday Night Baseball hangover spot. I simply refuse to play -1.5.

Pick Made: Mon 11:23 pm UTC on FanDuel
Mar 31 2026, 2:00 am UTC
League
Maple Leafs
5
@ Ducks
4
+467
20-11-9 in Last 40 NHL ATS Picks
+269.5
25-14-2 in Last 41 ANA ATS Picks
Analysis:

The Leafs, 2-8 in their past 10 roadies, have nothing to play for other than pride and could officially be eliminated from playoff contention Monday depending. Anaheim is battling for the Pacific Division title and a terrific 23-10-2 on home ice. Blueliner and trade acquisition John Carlson has eight assists through his first seven games with the Ducks -- most by a player through their first seven games with Anaheim. The Ducks lead the NHL with 25 comeback wins, so don't fret a possible 1-0 hole.

Pick Made: Sun 10:13 pm UTC on BetRivers
Mar 30 2026, 10:40 pm UTC
League
White Sox
9
@ Marlins
4
+169
5-2 in Last 7 MLB Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Our dog Everson Pereira went 2-for-4 on Sunday -- but we didn't play him then. Have to pick-and-choose. That raised his career batting average to .149 in the majors. In the first two games, he was 0-for-6 with five strikeouts. I expect more of that tonight. The way I look at this is the books are saying it's 50/50 he gets a knock. It's decidedly not 50/50 short of infield nonsense.

Pick Made: Mon 7:21 pm UTC on Caesars
Mar 30 2026, 8:10 pm UTC
League
Twins
1
@ Royals
3
+112
8-4 in Last 12 MLB ML Picks
+986.5
25-11 in Last 36 KC ML Picks
Analysis:

Fading the Twins was moderately profitable in their first series in Baltimore in dropping two of three, and I think Minnesota will be dropping many series 2-1 in 2026. Simeon Woods Richardson is expected on the mound Monday. He had a 5.19 road ERA last year and was hit pretty hard and lost his only start to Kansas City -- which plays its home opener. In six outings this spring, SWR was 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA. For the Royals, it's Kris Bubic. Surprised me to know that since returning from Tommy John surgery on July 7, 2024, his 2.58 ERA ranks third in the AL among starters (min. 140.0 IP), trailing Tarik Skubal and Hunter Brown.

Pick Made: Sun 9:01 pm UTC on bet365
Mar 29 2026, 10:00 pm UTC
League
Celtics
114
@ Hornets
99
+409
6-2-1 in Last 9 NBA Picks
+333
15-11 in Last 26 NBA ML Picks
+1244
34-16 in Last 50 BOS ML Picks
Analysis:

Second of a back-to-back for the Hornets, but part of the reason I think they were upset last night was looking ahead to this. Boston will be sans Jaylen Brown and Derrick White. That overcomes my back-to-back hesitation. And how much of a load can Jayson Tatum carry this early? He has been playing a lot of minutes. This is also Boston's only visit to Charlotte this season, so it will be a definite home-court advantage-type crowd in a possible first-round East playoff preview.

Pick Made: Sun 9:07 pm UTC on DraftKings
Mar 29 2026, 9:00 pm UTC
League
Bruins
4
@ Blue Jackets
3
+854.5
40-25 in Last 65 NHL ML Picks
+591.5
19-10 in Last 29 CLB ML Picks
Analysis:

Second of a back-to-back for both, but I think the goalie setup works in our favor. The Blue Jackets have among the fewest regulation home losses in the league but took a tough one Saturday, twice blowing one-goal leads (that hurt) vs. San Jose. But Columbus used its lesser goalie in Elvis Merzlikins, meaning Jet Greaves today. He has a 1.66 GAA and .929 SV over his past six. Boston presumably will have to use backup Joonas Korpisalo in the second of a B2B. He's 3-5-4 away with a 3.51 GAA.

Pick Made: Sun 3:49 pm UTC on bet365
Mar 29 2026, 5:40 pm UTC
League
Red Sox
2
@ Reds
3
+110.5
8-5 in Last 13 MLB Picks
Analysis:

Really same deal on this matchup as Saturday, which worked well. I think these teams are about evenly matched, so again this feels like +1.5 value. Cincy starts touted righty Rhett Lowder, who looked solid this spring with a 3.60 ERA after looking excellent in his first six big-league starts in 2025 with a 1.17 ERA. It's a touted southpaw rookie for the Sox in Connelly Early. He was shaky in two of three road starts in 2025 (including playoffs) in his cup of coffee. Be fun to see him face red-hot Reds rookie hitter Sal Stewart. He's now the NL ROY betting favorite with a cool 1.917 OPS through two games. I think the Reds came out of Saturday's extra-inning win better bullpen-wise.

Pick Made: Sun 3:31 pm UTC on BetRivers
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