Matt's Picks (1 Live)
Honestly may not even watch the Super Bowl as I just don't care about either of these teams and I surely don't care about Bad Bunny at halftime. I'm sure the Notebook or something Hugh Grant is on as oppo programing on Feb. 8. It is an outdoor game so maybe we get some elements in Santa Clara. But giving Mike Macdonald two weeks to prepare for sack- and fumble-prone Drake Maye makes me think Seattle will keep that New England offense in check. That offense did very little in the AFC title game. And I'm sure the Pats' defense will have some surprises for Sam Darnold, too. Last 46.5 on our board. Our model has 44 points. Sagarin has 45.2.
Pardon if I seem off today, but I got up at 5 am ET (feel like Tony Kornheiser; I ain't that old!) to watch Lindsey Vonn. Crash unfortunately. Total bummer. Still amazing she even tried. Doesn't Energizer have to sign her now as a spokeswoman? "Keeps going and going." Frankly, all I care about the Super Bowl tonight is the commercials (well and the Under). And now I forget about skiing again until I next go to Michigan in the winter, where I'd be sledding anyways. OSU is on the wrong side of the bubble per CBS Sports Bracketology. It wouldn't be with an upset, and I don't rule that out completely. I feel this number should be closer to 7ish.
Do I think this bet wins? Probably not. But I also don't really think it loses and ideally we get fortunate on a one-goal Bayern Munich win. Or obviously draw. Hoffenheim (feel like I sneezed) is third in the Bundesliga and has only four losses. Bayern is of course first. I would not play +1.5. This is the only book offering 2. I'm expecting a push in all honesty.
Well, it's on me with Iona. I haven't done a model play in forever and naturally the one time I did, just badly wrong (it was too low). Ours absolutely loved the Gaels. They all did. It's my fault, I need to stick with my gameplan (didn't look on this one nor will I again). This is why AI will never replace me. Who else can weave in Duran Duran? It was kinda startling what Grok told me when I asked to tell me about "Hungry Like the Wolf." I don't recommend searching that. Can't unsee certain things. But I may have been on another site accidentally.
This number is perplexing to me. Yeah, Luka is out but so is Steph Curry. So basically a wash. Shouldn't the Lakers be around -5/-225? I think so. Kristaps will not make his Dubs debut yet, so yeah I don't really get this. Is Gui Santos gonna beat the Lakers? I'm not sure that even Mrs. Santos believes that (mom or wife). Just not sure who scores on that team tonight. Not Gui. Certainly no lock but I'll up the wager.
Unless someone is out I don't know about, this is way, way too low even at -198 (should be -300). I am on the live Sidearm app to see the Iona lineup and I don't see anything weird. That's certainly not canon but this is off otherwise. Guarantees nothing but yep it's value.
This will be the largest conglomeration of overweight white people (count me among -- just not in person) in American sports until the Brewers visit the Cubs the first time this MLB season. The tailgating I bet would be fun and guaranteed included various smoked sausages. Yum. Gosh I miss the Midwest sometimes (not so much Indiana). Yes, we tailgate before a basketball game. We don't need a reason. I think this should be a good 25-30 cents higher. If IU loses, it probably goes to the wrong side of the bubble. It has won the past two at home in the series, although in the transfer era that means quite little. Wiscy is minus one rotation guy in Austin Rapp (8.9 PPG, 3.7 RPG).
We have six accessible books if not aware, and I honestly don't know why those six or how it works but they are: DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers (that's the only one that delivers the excellent -1/-1 NHL options and hoping same for MLB) and Bet365. This is the lone of the sextet with a number of 3.5 and not 2.5. Sometimes, the books are telling me what to play via outlier number. Why you should ALWAYS shop around.
Two borderline NCAA Tournament-quality teams. KenPom ranks UNI 29 spots higher. One of my favorite things to wager in college hoops is a semi-evenly matched conference series where the home team won the first, which Bradley did. Don't have numbers in front of me (beef pot pie and a glass of Pinot), but I happen to know that statistically speaking conference teams don't sweep when somewhat equal. And I'm not sure UNI isn't better despite the first one. Obviously KenPom agrees. Go big or go home. I will be at a sushi-making class (Xmas present) tonight, so feel free to text me what's happening. And I don't like sushi, but what gonna do? ... I hope for Arby's on way home. #wegotthemeat
Will eat this number and go big -- anchor leg if need be (will buy out if any Boston key person out). It's high but probably should be another 50 cents higher. Still no Tyler Herro for the Heat, who did nothing at the deadline to stay mediocre. At least the Bulls got like a cacophony of second-round picks. Maybe they find the next Nikola Jokic in Round 2. LOL. Then trade him probably. And I think one of those Bulls' traded guys, Nikola Vucevic, makes the Celtics that much better. He solves a few of their issues. Could the Heat win? Obviously, but I am kinda puttering along in the NBA so I need to get going. But I usually take off post-break.
I'll throw a quarter down as we now have draw plays. Really this is just to let you know. I don't see a scenario where I bet a draw going forward. Well, maybe in the World Cup. Draw No Bet is on the way. Couple weeks.
I mean you see the price and I hate all things Mets or Metz -- the fighting Darryl Strawberries are dead last in the Ligue 1 and absolutely should lose here. But short of, I dunno, Kendall Jenner (ick) as the starting goalkeeper I'm pretty much gonna take +1.5 in a domestic match. Our model has Lille 1.7-1.1, and I expect and shall root for a one-goal win.
This will jump if Joel Embiid sits (doubt). And I don't want to mention him, but usually I only have to reference when back the Sixers. I'd be fine him sitting tonight. And I think Paul George is one of the most overrated players of his generation. But he's a very good defender. Him being out suspended for a while won't probably matter that often, but he would be the main guy on Luka and/or LeBron. Now Philly doesn't have a strong defender to deal with either. You think Dominick Barlow will do something? Also, I believe certain home games are much more important -- including those after a long road trip to reset momentum. That's where the Lakers are following their Grammys Trip.
Montana State is tied for second in the Big Sky and two up on Idaho. KenPom ranks the Bobcats 34 spots higher. They lost by 3 at Idaho on Jan. 10 but that only makes me like this a bit more. And that game was crazy with MSU up 18 at the half. Montana State has won seven in a row at home. Jed Miller has opened Big Sky play on a tear with 20 or more points six times and two double-doubles in the first 10 games. He leads the team in just about every category. So, yeah, please don't get into foul trouble/tweak an ankle. The Bobcats commit fewer turnovers than any other team in the Big Sky.