Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Yep, I see this number. So I'm going two units to match it. That's how much I prefer insurance. The Guardians don't have much lefty power and their one guy who does, stellar rookie Chase DeLauter, is sitting. Cleveland has lost three in a row and not hitting much as it is. The Rays haven't lost a Nick Martinez start since mid-June. And I don't even need a win. Cleveland plays a ton of one-run games (35) because of weak lineup.
Two things you should never do: Go to Costco hungry (end up spending the GNP of a small island nation on five pounds of tater tots that I end up throwing out anyways) or bet angry. I'm definitely a bit irked at the Tigers losing so will go ahead and chase that with this. Not much of a road guy in anything but no Juan Soto for the Mets makes this relatively palatable. Now I go eat my 10 gallons of Dinty Moore beef stew -- which apparently never expires. If there is a nuclear winter, I am definitely good right now.
You are probably fine taking Rangers moneyline, but I'm just not wired that way -- if I get among our limited options what I think is a wrong number, I'm going to take it. I prefer insurance as you probably can tell from all my parlays. Honestly don't get why Seattle is favored as Bryan Woo is the most schizo home/road starter in the majors. Dude looks like Cy Young at home but Anthony Young away (1-6, 6.28 ERA). "Woo-woo-woo" has allowed at least four runs in six straight road games.
Bit of a confusing number for me. Is Aaron Judge back for the Yankees? Nope. We are getting the Phils at a pretty generous +1.5 number at home because it's rookie Brian Keller (at age 32!! Good for you Crash Davis, never give up on that dream) expected to make his big-league debut either as the opener or bulk guy. But it's not like New York's Ryan Weathers (3-7, 4.40 ERA) is all that great and has been rocked in two of his past three. So, yeah, I'd still favor Philly at home so will take this gift.
I think this would be a great spot for Tigers -1 (really, really going to push we add that and NRFI/YRFI in 2027) but in lieu of not having that will go this route. I'll take an early win and take my ball and go home -- yeah right. I'm already looking at the Liverpool-Sunderland friendly tonight from Nashville. Detroit's Casey Mize has a 2.50 home ERA. The Tigers have won three straight and six of eight since the break. They aren't selling now. The Royals definitely are.
This just popped because Cleveland's best hitter, Jose Ramirez, is out. He just returned from the IL. The Indians -- it's going to take me years to say Guardians -- also blew out the pen in Thursday's home loss to the Twins. I have a side get on the Rays in Discord which some of you may know about. A win here clinches at worst a push on that.
Tigers ML behind Tarik Skubal is my anchor leg to the newsletter parlay of the day. Kinda ruined the surprise. But that's to win. Detroit is not great offensively, which I know because my mega-fan Mom impressively went on a diatribe last night on the Tigers' batting average with runners in scoring position. I'm like "how do you know that? I don't even know that?" She responds: "Hi, you are my son." OK that made me feel pretty good. So I think +1.5 is reasonable for F5 at this price. The Royals are using an opener, which makes me think they should get through B1 in OK fashion in theory. Just need the main guy Noah Cameron to not implode. 1-0 after 5 let's go.
I have said this before and I will say it again probably many times before I am replaced by a giant Fax machine: AI does not see intangibles or flat spots. It sees John Connor and how to improve assembly lines. But not sports betting. I'll never believe that. If a pattern existed, I would have found it by now. This screams against Arizona having had to fly to St. Louis (kudos on that win, that burned) for a one-off makeup game last night and then off to D.C.. The Nats were off Thursday and I don't even need an outright win. Washington has been one of the most profitable ATS teams of the season.
We have about a 30-minute deadline before plays. This is in about 25 minutes in theory, but games never start really on time. They have to have mascot runs, Morganna (showed my age), etc. Anyways, I wasn't going to play but Ketel Marte was a late Snakes scratch. So that's what this is.
Thought I was done with UFC for this week, but we just got access to O/U round betting so will throw a little down on this. Bogdan Guskov took this main event fight on very short notice but is a pretty quality fighter at 18-3 and ranked as the No. 9 light heavyweight. He can't last against against No. 2 Magomed Ankalaev until the 2:30 mark of Round 2? If we throw out a NC for Ankalaev vs. Johnny Walker (Red or Blue?) at UFC 294, then each of the past nine Ankalaev fights have gone past the halfway point of Round 2 or he lost -- which was his last bout in Round 1. And I don't see a loss here.
Troy Melton has been a godsend for Detroit (7-2 in his nine starts) and faces a Royals team without Bobby Witt. Jr. and which is 17-33 on the road. I'm on the Tigers a few ways tonight on a weird MLB slate. This is a game they simply can't lose and hope to make a realistic playoff push. Win here, Tarik Skubal goes Friday and Casey Mize on Saturday against this bad opponent, and the Tigers might be rolling suddenly.
Don't think much of Cleveland, but Jose Ramirez was activated off the injured list today so that helps as he's in the lineup. Two key Twins guys in Byron Buxton and Ryan Jeffers are not -- they lead all of the team's position players in WAR. Minny pitcher Bailey Ober has a 6.90 road ERA. Ramirez and a few other Guardians hit him well career. The Twins have lost four straight, all by multiple runs.
No Juan Soto for the Mets is mostly what this is. I'm sure all the NY guys are itching to return home from this six-game trip to open the second half. That's when trades likely begin. Starting pitcher Christian Scott (3-1, 2.87 ERA) has been quite good but doesn't go deep into games. It appears every Brewers regular is in with the team off Thursday. That means the entire excellent bullpen should be ready behind Logan Henderson (3-1, 2.97 ERA).
I'm a little spiteful on Unders right now and will bump this up to 9.5, but Bobby Witt Jr. is out again for the Royals. They have totaled nine total runs in the past three without him (he did pinch-hit in one). Jac Caglianone is sitting today, too, so that's a big power source gone. The Giants just aren't a good offensive team, totaling 11 runs in a four-game skid. Royals starter Seth Lugo has a 3.60 home ERA. Winds are blowing in about 9 mph.
I am never OK losing a bet, to be clear, but this game I'm playing in some ways for my pure enjoyment with two horrible starting pitchers in Miles Mikolas and Michael Lorenzen. But a F5 total of 7.5?! That's pretty massive; not sure if I have ever seen an 8, but I'm not checking F5 totals every day (maybe in one of those Vegas or Mexico City games). Each team could score one run in three of the first five innings tonight, and we still cash easy is the way I look at it. These are still big-league pitchers. But 5-4 after one inning also wouldn't shock me.