Matt's Picks (5 Live)
The Jets are expected to be short-handed in Miami. ...
Matt's Past Picks
Memphis' Jaren Jackson Jr. is an excellent defender, but the Unicorn has topped this easily in three straight games and he'll be the most rested Boston player getting Friday night's win over Milwaukee off. Our model has Kristaps Porzingis at 19.7 points. NumberFire has him at 18.3. I'm guessing Al Horford gets the second of a B2B off, so in theory that might mean more minutes for Porzingis. I certainly don't expect a blowout here.
Marshall ate my cheese -- I don't know if that's a saying but I'm trying to start it as one -- last week at James Madison but in a way that makes me want to fade the Herd more after a two-OT wild game. Yeah a full week to rest, etc., but this is another true road game and I'm not sure that Georgia wins back-to-back weeks at James Madison and Louisiana, two very good teams. OK, maybe Georgia does. My Canes sure as heck don't. Can we just demote Mario to full-time recruiter? If it comes down to a late field goal for UL, we feel good about it as Kenneth Almendares holds several school records and is up for the Lou Groza Award.
This is really just a play for my amusement. Daniel Gafford averages 1.3 assists per game. Just need a simple first-quarter kickout to Luka Doncic for a 3 and we can put this game to bed.
I said earlier in the week that I expected Montreal to be great underdog value going forward with the return of Patrik Laine from injury, and the Habs are 2-0 outright this week as dogs. The only thing you may want to wait for is that it remains Sam Montembeault in net, and really there's no reason it shouldn't be. It's the second of a B2B for the Caps, who continue to confound me, in all honesty, and were upset winners last night in Toronto.
Neutral-site game in Philly as part of that Big 5 thing ... and now I'm craving a Five Guys double cheeseburger. Just great. That Five Guys has a veggie sandwich should be illegal. Hey, I like veggies but not in place of a sweaty, cardiac-inducing hunk of meat. KenPom ranks Drexel more than 100 spots better. The Quakers may find it tough sledding at the rim as the Dragons average 4.4 blocks per game. Our model has Drexel by double digits. Can't say I agree with that but most I see have it by at least five so this feels like some value.
This feels like a pretty reasonable price on Boston, although granted it isn't what it had been in the past few years. That said, the B's have won three straight and are rested and quite healthy. I think this takes on added importance ahead of a 12-day, five-game Western road trip that begins on Tuesday in Winnipeg where Boston might be an underdog in every game. The Flyers aren't much and have issues in net. They have lost seven of nine in Boston.
Thursday was terrific and Friday was brutal. Wish I knew why. Guess retiring to Aruba will have to wait on Bitcoin. I'd be doing this if I was a multi-millionaire, who am I kidding? #needalifebutenjoyit. Actually didn't do too bad personally because I loved Boise State football so much and went wife's Botox fund big on them, but rare those "locks" come around. Don't think I got anything else right. I'm not sure I've gotten ASU right all season, either, but I have to fade the Sun Devils minus leading receiver Jordyn Tyson (75-1101-10). My biggest worry? ISU looks so good that the Bears hire Matt Campbell. That would be so them. Skip on Jim Harbaugh in 2024 and hire Matt Campbell in 2025.
Portland's Jerami Grant had been rumored as a top trade candidate but is not having a very good season. However, he's still averaging 2.3 points better than this number and 18.6 ppg at home. The Blazers should have no trouble putting up at least a buck-20 tonight against a wretched Utah team and especially defensively. Grant averaged 21.7 ppg last year against the Jazz. Our model has him at 17.7 tonight. NumberFire has him at 18.1.
I honestly think this is the first time since maybe Lillard/McCollum was the Portland backcourt that I played the Blazers ML. But if they can't win at home against a truly wretched Jazz team sans Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson, well then sell the team to the Gemstones.
Boise State easily handled UNLV in last year's MW title game in Las Vegas and then also won there close this year. I just don't see the Broncos losing on their own blue turf in what is the biggest game in school history with a trip to the CFP on the line. Keep in mind the Rebs are an indoor-built team now and it's going to be chilly in Boise on Friday night. Think that plays right into the hands of Ashton Jeanty & Co. I expect this to get to around -200.