Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Cool temps and winds blowing in about 10 mph from center field in Pittsburgh. Offenses often struggle in a day game after a night one -- and the teams combined for a single run last night. Pirates starter Andrew Heaney has been solid with a 3.02 ERA, while the Reds' Brady Singer has a 3.31 ERA in two starts during the day. A couple of Pirates regulars are taking a seat.
The Royals' Michael Lorenzen is 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA on the road and the KC bullpen is very thinned-out having been used a lot both Sunday and Monday. Wilmer Flores smashes Lorenzen career, going 7-for-14 with three homers. SF's Hayden Birdsong is a glorified opener but has a 1.69 home ERA.
I'm still pretty flabbergasted how bad Florida made the Maple Leafs look on their own ice in Game 7 on Sunday night. So impressive for the Cats but utterly depressing yet again for those of us tired of watching Toronto Game 7 meltdowns. I've had a pretty good NHL season but seems like I don't do well fading the Panthers. The only reason I will in Game 1 is that they have to turn around and play so soon after a long series. Carolina is well-rested and the only team without a home loss this postseason. Frederik Andersen leads all goalies in GAA and SV as well. This series will probably be a slugfest full of 2-1 or 3-2 games.
I don't think much of Yankees pitcher Will Warren, but no way that Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin (3-2, 3.35 ERA) suddenly got good for the first time in six years and at age 35. New York leads the majors in OPS against southpaws at .869. Cody Bellinger is raking during a 13-game hitting streak and is a career .391 hitter off Corbin. Texas, still without Corey Seager, is 8-13 on the road.
Tampa Bay's Zach Littell has three straight quality starts and hasn't allowed more than three earned since April 10. It's the first big-league start and Astros debut for lefty Brandon Walter. The 28-year-old made his big-league debut last year with Boston and got into nine games in relief with a 6.26 ERA. Houston almost surely is without closer Josh Hader and top setup man Bryan Abreu as both have pitched Sunday and Monday.
OK, that was not a fun MLB weekend. Think I will avoid the Padres for a while. I'd obviously prefer 3.5 here (priced -160 at BR) but I'm always taking 3 runs on a home team in MLB. Easy flat spot for the Phils after a long homestand and the bad news received on Sunday that top reliever Jose Alvarado was suspended 80 games and is ineligible for the postseason.
Not really understanding why the Brewers are home dogs against an Orioles team that clearly has quit already on a six-game skid and no "new manager bump" after the firing of Brandon Hyde over the weekend. It's not Hyde's fault that GM/ownership didn't go get pitching this offseason, but it is on Hyde that a lot of the team's good young hitters have regressed. Dean Kremer is 1-4 with a 6.96 ERA on the road.
We take home teams in Game 7, that simple. And we are covered in the event of an overtime loss. I hope to heck this goes to OT simply as a fan ... but then naturally Maple Leafs winning. They haven't been to the conference finals since 2002 when they got there with a Game 7 home win in the semifinals to face Carolina in the ECF. And of course, the Hurricanes are there waiting this year. Toronto forward Matthew Knies (58 regular-season points, +7 rating) was in some question with an injury but will play. This might be a homer pick because I'm not much interested in a Florida-Carolina East Finals matchup.
It has not been a great MLB weekend in large part because of the Padres, so I must be a glutton for punishment going back to them again. I just can't believe they will get swept at home in a supposed rivalry series. Seattle's bullpen is pretty taxed. Young starting pitcher Bryan Woo is darn good, but his road/day splits are significantly worse than his home/night ones. San Diego's Michael King has a 1.64 ERA at home. The Padres bullpen is in good shape. And any lineup of theirs without Jason Heyward (.177) in it is a better lineup. He's sitting today.
Definitely lost on the Padres on Friday, but this just makes me like them better on Saturday. Yeah, one game in theory should not influence the next, but I think it depends. It was a bad loss and the bullpen got reset for SD. Punt game. I honestly had forgotten this is the "Vedder Cup" series. Dunno, I don't like coffee or flannel. But I do like Pearl Jam (who doesn't?): "I'll ride the wave where it takes me." I try to live my life that way ...
Get asked often why I generally only play home teams (any sport). I just think guys feel comfortable with the background/rink/field, no travel, etc., and it's easier to stage a comeback at home than away. The Jets' Connor Hellebuyck is the definition of back at home/fade away in these playoffs. He pitched a second home shutout in the series Thursday but is 0-5 with a 5.84 GAA on the road. Winnipeg -- and Hellebuyck -- has lost nine straight playoff road games overall. So, yeah, the Jets are probably due and as someone who wants a Canadian team to finally win the Cup, I'd prefer they win. But I can't ignore the numbers.
This play flopped yesterday, but I'm going back as the scorching-hot Twins are without three regulars due to injury, etc. Ty France is the cleanup hitter today and Kody Clemens is in the 5 hole. I don't think Kody Clemens batted in the top five of the order at his own family softball gatherings. Who the heck is DaShawn Keirsey? He's the starting center fielder today and DaBad (not to be confused with Da Bears) offensively: hitting just .116. I might play Twins TT Under 4.5 looking at this motley crew today. Which means they will score 15. Do I even have to say this would be unlucky win No. 13 in a row for Minny? If you believe in such things ...
Seems a little light on the Padres, who have been one of the best teams in the majors at home. Seattle is starting to show its flaws -- i.e. can't hit -- in a 3-7 run. Rookie pitcher Logan Evans was torched in his lone road start. Anyone who has Miles Mastrobuoni in their starting lineup as Seattle does should lose. If this were my Best Friend's Fat Greek Wedding or something, maybe I want Miles around. Although Mastrobuoni is probably Italian. OK, Nonnas then (good flick).