Matt's Picks (7 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
AS Monaco is the better team, sitting 7th in Ligue 1 and Brest 11th. Do they have trap games/matches in soccer? Of course they do. Friday feels like one for Monaco after upsetting PSG last time out. But that was at home and Monaco is winless in its past two away. It has a couple guys suspended and Team USA star Folarin Balogun is out injured. Brest had been hovering near the bottom of the table due to a six-match winless run between October and mid-November but enters off B2B wins, scoring five total goals, and with at least a point in three of four. Les Pirates have at least a point in four of their previous five at Stade Francis-Le Ble.
Short slate Thursday, and the Big West opener for both. Don't put a ton of credence into preseason polls but don't pretend to know the Big West that well. CSUN was picked fifth and CS Bakersfield 10th. Way too many CS for me to keep track of. Next on "CSI: Bakersfield": An illegal tickle fight. I don't know the demographics or crime stats of Bakersfield, sorry. If I end up there in life, I made a wrong turn. I do think this closes near -200 unless I'm missing a Matadors injury, etc., but I don't see one. CSUN newcomers Joshua O'Garro and Josiah Davis top the Big West in rebounding and assists, respectively. The teams split the season series last year, each winning at home.
I no longer look at models for sides, but I'm "totals challenged" so then I do need to look. None have this approaching this sky-high number and it has been going up all morning (think it peaked here). The closest I've seen is 173 and that was an outlier number. Most are in the mid-160s and ours has 164. More and more teams are playing fast -- both these two rank Top 15 in tempo -- because it's a better recruiting tool than, say, playing at Virginia when Tony Bennett used to coach and the Wahoos often had games in the 50s. The hosts sit 204th nationally in points per possession and Cal Poly 275th. So they play fast but not necessarily efficient.
The books are still hugely overpricing the Oilers simply because of who they were the past few seasons and not really who they are this year. They should not be around -240 for this one is my point, but hey as long as we get -1 -- although it's nearing the limit of where we would. But the did win 4-0 in Seattle on Dec. 2 and the Kraken aren't healthy with Mason Marchment (11 points) out and top blueliner Brandon Montour (13 points) in doubt. They have lost three straight and totaled only two goals.
The smart play is definitely Dallas +3.5. I've never been accused of being smart. And I need the Lions to win for all my buddies being there tonight. So yeah, I definitely make picks for personal reasons other than stats-related sometimes. I was ready to play Dallas if Amon-Ra St. Brown and all those Lions O-Linemen were out, but they are all playing. Honestly surprised on ASB. Just can't trust Dallas away even if looking miles better lately. Probably a Detroit 3-point win so Cowboys +3.5 bettors win at a better price. Let's all win. But I can't do that number on the road.
Important to me to play one last game because I'm out on the NBA for a while. Not bitter, things are just awful. No chance Wednesday I play the Hawks when Jalen Johnson was ruled out like late. So what I am supposed to do? Wanted to post this last one as to explain why. Used to love, love the NBA. Now I don't recognize it. No one plays anymore. It's a bad, bad product. And this hurts me to say. Player props are a possibility but short of just crazy value I'm gonna sit out. Don't like giving away $$. Maybe Christmas as guys seem to want to play then. Lot of people think the NBA season only starts on Xmas anyways.
Colorado is on pace to be one of the great regular-season teams in history. But No. 1 netminder Scott Wedgewood probably is out again Friday due to injury. Mackenzie Blackwood has been just as good, though -- maybe NHL teams just need to get guys with the last name Wood, which by the way is my family name (just not me). But this is Bullseye Central against a pretty good Islanders team. And -143 for +1.5 compared to -200 on Avs away for Colorado's first game on the East Coast since late-October? (Granted, I could just skip it) No-brainer play even it if loses.
One of our books has 2.5 but overjuiced. I tend to think Man U gets to at least two goals because West Ham pretty much allows at least two every game. But will United get a third and the Hammers one of their own is really what I believe this comes down to. West Ham is without second-leading scorer Lucas Paquetá (3 goals) and United might be missing Bruno Fernandes (2 goals, team-leading 5 assists). Harry Maguire and Benjamin Sesko are still unavailable. None of the past five in the series have topped three total goals scored.