It's Ivy League time! ...

The college basketball season tips off Sunday! ...

Pittsburgh is on a crazy ATS run. ...

Is Oregon undervalued? ...

Feel like the books have a grudge against the Mavs or something. Like Wednesday against a thinned-out Thunder team, I'm not really understanding why they are getting this many points at home. Houston is down its top two centers. Hmm ... feel like I am missing something here but Cooper Flagg and Kyrie Irving are in.

Going to eat this number. Would I prefer -1 but do -1.5? Think you know the answer. The Jets are in the second of a back-to-back and just everything is against them in free-fall. This would be a shocking upset. I think it's fair to say you will see this as a leg in Friday's premium newsletter Parlay of the Day ... but I'll at least throw this out now so you can manipulate how choose. Regulation line is -135 and that'd be absolutely my call. But not in parlay. No reason to take that out. I'm fine solo as no team does the Tampa/South Florida double well. Even good teams. Toughest swing in hockey, Winnipeg is terrible regardless and now on its third-string goalie.

Getting my plays in early because my wife mentioned something about a lazy river, unlimited cocktails and Arby's for my birthday (don't care about birthdays -- it's not today but soon), and I am absolutely all in for that. Tube and lube and Arby me up! It's not the Circa pool in Vegas but I'll take it -- and considerably cheaper. No, I don't want $65 chicken fingers. AJ Dybansta's home debut for the Wizards and that will bring some rare buzz to the District. The Hornets might be good when Kon Knueppel (by far the "whitest" player in the NBA) and Coby White are healthy but tough to be too competitive when your starting backcourt is out as they still are.

I appear to be going through some sort of American Werewolf in London syndrome -- wonderful old-school movie if not seen -- as I suddenly am David Attenborough (the Voice of Heaven) at European soccer but completely mediocre in the good ol USA at everything else. Identity theft? I simply think I understand the math of soccer and hockey really well and the risks. Whereas NFL ... I'll leave that to the super-experts for the most part. NBA has become absurd injury-wise and non-bettable until 5 minutes before tip. Maybe I should learn Lacrosse? (not Izod, I'm a Polo guy).

Really getting irked with these outrageous +1.5 prices -- some sites will offer +0.5 in regulation essentially as an Asian line, and I think that would be swell here to knock this way down. Soccer betting (which is working) is starting to seep into my hockey brain. But for these purposes, is what it is. The Sabres are banged up and playing a third straight roadie. Model essentially has a draw -- that works.

The Grizzlies' Ty Jerome has been one of the shock stories of the early season in averaging nearly 30 PPG when his career average is less than 10. But I think the crash back to earth started last game when he was held to 15 points at Utah. Portland has one of the NBA's better defensive guards in Jrue Holiday, although he comes off the bench. End of a trip for the Grizz so perhaps tired legs. Model has Jerome at 22.2. Memphis is fully healthy now so maybe not quite as many shots his way.

The Panthers are truly wretched against the run -- last in yards and rush TDs (11) -- and Green Bay's Josh Jacobs did score in his season debut on Sunday, although it was via reception. I don't much care how he gets into the end zone Thursday. The model gives Jacobs a 92% chance of scoring between rushing and receiving -- that translates to -1150 on a moneyline. So yeah -139 seems fine.

Wowzers, a total of 76.5 -- that's the highest of the season by far in college football. And I guess I get it as North Texas comes off an 88-total point game vs. Navy and had an 89-point total game a few weeks ago at Tulsa. FAU has that beat, coming off a 100-point game vs. Rice. But on principle I gotta play a half unit here. The model has only 50 points scored. That seems a bit low, but I'm good with 41-35.

Not much of a fan of either goalie in Spencer Knight and John Gibson, but these are two of the worst offensive teams in the NHL and arguably Detroit's top guy in that regard, center Dylan Larkin, is out amid rumors he has finally gotten his trade wish or is close. Hopefully to the Blackhawks! Larkin has six points in 10 games. In two early season games without him, the Wings totaled two goals and lost both.

Wow, a 7 and it's not involving the Avalanche or Oilers. Both these clubs are pretty solid offensively but not world-changing. My one concern is that it might be Mammoth backup Sebastian Cossa's turn and he has a 3.21 GAA. But let's hope not. Doesn't much matter who is in net for the Pens -- probably Arturs Silovs and his 2.88 G AA -- as they are pretty thin at forward due to injury, etc., although Sidney Crosby is fine. The model has 6.7 goals scored and I'm fully prepared to push at a 3-3 regulation draw.

Nice result today in Serie A, and it's the only major European league in action Thursday as well. Frosinone sits sixth in the table with 14 points and Lecce seven spots lower with 9. If I'm not playing Draw No Bet, that means it's pricy (-360 or so). The hosts are very healthy and have scored four goals in back-to-back matches -- Antonio Raimondo leads the side with seven goals -- and have won four straight at home. Lecce has some player availability concerns led by suspended defender Kilonda Gaspar. These sides haven't played since March 2024. The model has Frosinone by a half-goal, which is a lot for it in a domestic match.