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Matt Severance
Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 55 NBA ML PICKS
+1192
Record: 39-16
# 1 nba Expert
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L.A. Dodgers 3 @ Seattle 4 | 04/20 | 2:10 AM UTC

Seattle +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: I am going to have to play contrarian here to my three cohorts who picked the Dodgers on the runline. This almost feels like a trap game for L.A. off a very heated weekend series at blood rival San Diego. Dodgers starting pitcher Dustin May is a stud and L.A. probably wins, but I'll take the much better than expected Mariners getting +1.5 as a +105 underdog at home. Seattle also could see the season debut of 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis off injury.

+481 10-4 IN LAST 14 MLB ATS PICKS
+405 4-0 IN LAST 4 LAD ATS PICKS

Ottawa 4 @ Calgary 2 | 04/20 | 1:00 AM UTC

Calgary -215

LOSS

ANALYSIS: I tend to avoid betting against Ottawa at home as big underdogs as the Sens often pull upsets there, but on the road they are generally safe to go against with a 6-16-0 record (even though they won in Montreal on Saturday) -- shocked they haven't even gotten an OT loss away yet. The Flames are healthy and well-rested as they haven't played since last Friday. This starts a four-game homestand and Calgary needs to win them all as it chases a playoff berth. The home team is 8-2 in the past 10 in the series.

+1864 115-71 IN LAST 186 NHL PICKS
+364 13-4 IN LAST 17 OTT ML PICKS

Montreal 1 @ Edmonton 4 | 04/20 | 1:00 AM UTC

Edmonton -128

WIN

ANALYSIS: It's Montreal's first road game since April 7 and only its second this month. The team is 3-9 in its past 12 away. No. 1 netminder Carey Price played Saturday for the first time since April 5 due to injury and wasn't particularly sharp in a home upset loss to Ottawa. Yes, the Habs are 4-1 vs. the Oilers this season and have held Edmonton superstars and the league's top two scorers, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, to just a combined four assists in the season series, but that just means they are due. The Oilers are on a seven-game home winning streak.

+1864 115-71 IN LAST 186 NHL PICKS
+759 11-3 IN LAST 14 EDM ML PICKS

Memphis 137 @ Denver 139 | 04/20 | 1:00 AM UTC

Denver -200

WIN

ANALYSIS: Memphis already has ruled out double-double machine Jonas Valanciunas (concussion protocol) for this game and could also be sans Dillon Brooks (thigh), Brandon Clarke (hip), De'Anthony Melton (leg) and Justise Winslow (thigh). Thus, I think we are safe taking Denver this early even though the Nugs are of course without Jamal Murray (and Monte Morris) -- although, I also took the Nets at -200 on Sunday vs. the Heat and got scorched when Kevin Durant left in the first quarter with an injury and Brooklyn lost. Those are the risks we take.

+1192 39-16 IN LAST 55 NBA ML PICKS
+325 5-1 IN LAST 6 DEN ML PICKS
+300 5-1 IN LAST 6 MEM ML PICKS

San Antonio 109 @ Indiana 94 | 04/20 | 12:00 AM UTC

San Antonio -120

WIN

ANALYSIS: The Pacers have burned me probably more than any team this season, so I'm not sure why I even go back to their games but here we are. Indiana is much worse at home than on the road, on the second of a back-to-back and without Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis. San Antonio is much better on the road than at home, not on a B2B and healthy. The Spurs are 12-1 when shooting over 50 percent from the field, which includes an 8-0 mark on the road. No Turner patrolling the paint might allow a 50 percent night.

+1192 39-16 IN LAST 55 NBA ML PICKS
+10 2-1 IN LAST 3 IND ML PICKS