Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
This is truly a shock number to me; completely a helmet/public number. If Patrick Mahomes and Mr. Taylor Swift played for the Colts and not the mega-popular Chiefs, this is not remotely +4.5. And they may well cover but I'm sure jumping now that we add the hook for a possible win on 27-23 or the like. Although I doubt that many points are scored. But that's even better for us; lower scoring, more likely to cover this.
Brock Purdy will be back, Ricky Pearsall probably will be for the Niners and Marvin Harrison Jr. is out for Arizona. I'm actually not sure 2025 Brock Purdy is better than 2025 Mac Jones and that's probably why this spread hasn't really moved with the Purdy news. Just seems like Arizona has quit -- if you read Wednesday's premium newsletter for subscribers, I went into some detail (and odds futures) on the Cards. Me playing a road ML team in the NFL ... checking my pulse. No stroke yet. Just feels like the season for the Niners.
On this one I'm gonna bet to win and not risk (I think it should be about 40 cents higher). Seems like an awful spot for the Clippers still without Kawhi Leonard. They just played double OT on Friday night -- James Harden played a whopping 51 minutes -- and are on the East Coast for the first time this season. Obviously an unusual start time for those guys' body clocks too. Harden probably only got back to his room an hour ago from a night out. And it's the front of a B2B so maybe we get lucky and someone sits, although I don't think that's necessary to cash. Well-rested Boston is healthy other than the guy we know about (Tatum).
Life is completely Seinfeld Bizzaro Superman right now (Kevin, Gene, Feldman, man-hands) in that I can't seem to miss a college game -- what a wonderful football Saturday, would have only been better had Michigan lost outright; almost -- but can't seem to get a pro game right. The NHL can just go pound sand for the moment (except the Sweden morning game here shortly). NBA, I'll figure that out. Houston is obviously awesome but this is quite a number. Not a true Auburn home game but basically is in Birmingham. You may wanna wait to see if this rises even more (opened 6.5) but I have yard mulch to do that ain't gonna mulch itself. So sad I've reached the mulch stage in life.
I win either way. Either my Bears pull the upset or we obviously cash. Don't rule out a Bears win but not seeing it as they have been digging too many holes and needing superhero Caleb Williams in the final two minutes to rescue; why not run the two-minute offense the entire game if it works so well? I'm assuming Ben Johnson knows football better than I so will have to trust him. Quite sure I'm the smartest Bears Matt guy, but being ahead of the Nagys and the Eberflus' (Eberflii?) of the world isn't exactly a strong selling point. Let's not hire another Matt head coach shall we? Unless it's me. Hey, I led our college intramural team to a title as a player/coach.
If you join my Discord sub-room you get some really cool "inside baseball" stuff. I am certainly not ever going to speak for the model creator -- I feel like I am in the movie Labyrinth now with David Bowie -- but as far as I know, I have never seen a +money TD favorite that it has. By that I mean, the model has De'Von Achane at 1.2 TDs. I'm not saying it hasn't had another guy with a projection over a TD but I don't recall seeing it. This reminds me of the whole LaDainian Tomlinson/Shaun Alexander retro best-fantasy back in like the early 2000s. That was truly a running back Golden Corral bonanza. And I for sure still do the GC. #unlimitedtaters
Game at historic Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain on Sunday morning. Washington has completely and utterly quit on a five-game skid and dropping the past four by at least 21 points each. That is tied for the longest streak within a season by any team since 1970. And now the 'Ders will be without one of their best defenders in tackle Daron Payne as he was suspended one game after punching Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on Sunday. Boy did Dan Quinn lose this team fast, although I'm sure 90% of this is just the Jayden Daniels injury shell-shock. Miami showed some fight Sunday with a shock upset of Buffalo. It is the "home" team here if it matters.
9 am hockey Sunday. I'm totally game holmes! (and NFL from Spain!) I really don't have a great feeling here; we won Preds the first game in Sweden and now Pittsburgh is "home", which as I've said is a major schematic advantage in the NHL. So that's really all this is. Nashville got its win and then probably celebrated with some Surstromming. I actually tried that once. Imagine death in an old shoe in a hole that the It clown is in with gingivitis. But worse.
Fresno State is still alive for a spot in the MW title game and frankly should win out the rest of the RS assuming it takes care of business here. I may have worried about a letdown game after an upset win at Boise State last time out, but FSU has since had a bye. Wyoming is winless in league road games. FSU hasn't lost at home in this series since 2014 (six straight wins) and has held Wyoming to seven or fewer points in four of the last five meetings overall. Fresno State's defense this year ranks 18th in the FBS and 2nd in the MW in turnovers gained (16). The Cowboys have been offensively challenged basically since Josh Allen left.
Here's another number I think is too low for Saturday, although not Missouri State low. Yes, BYU was smacked in Lubbock by TTU last week but really no shame in that these days and the Cougars still have a clear path to the Big 12 title game and the playoff by winning out. And they are always light years better in Provo (especially at night), including winning nine of the past 10 there. The defense still played pretty well in that TTU loss all things considered and is among the Big 12's best. BYU is also No. 23 in rushing nationally with 200.0 YPG. And it is bringing back the awesome classic home royal uniforms Saturday. TCU top tailback Kevorian Barnes (97-443-3) is questionable.
Gonna pre-play this one, too, as Nikola Jokic is questionable, but the Nugs are for sure without Cam Johnson and Christian Braun (he's out a while) so the Wolves might win anyways. If Jokic is ruled out, obviously this number would skyrocket. He has been just incredible so far. I played basketball for years and I still don't get it. He's so herky-jerky but it works wonders. May as well speculate here as this would become amazing value if Jokic is out. Even if he does go, Minny has one of the great big-man defenders in history in Rudy Gobert, although the Joker usually eats his lunch.
You wanna wait for lineups but it's going to be an incredibly nice Florida day so I might go to the beach -- thus need to get this in as traffic is a nightmare. So in news reports when "pale, slightly chubby man devoured by great white" surfaces on your feed, -160 odds it's me. I like the Raptors this season but this screams trap at the end of a long trip and after a big upset in Cleveland last time out. Indiana is slightly healthier of late and has played fairly well at home -- where its only win is. I believe the Pacers might win this game and I certainly think they can cover a way-too-generous number.