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Matt Severance
Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past two college basketball seasons, Matt is 391-286 (plus $2,714). Over the past two NHL seasons, he is up $1,855. Matt also went 213-159 (plus $868) in the NBA last season, 409-310 (plus $948) in MLB and 101-86 (plus $364) in college football. He believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 330 MLB PICKS
+2011
Record: 204-126
# 1 mlb Expert
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Seattle 8 @ San Diego 2 | 07/04 | 10:40 PM UTC

San Diego -178

LOSS

ANALYSIS: While JP Crawford comes off his suspension for the Mariners tonight, Jesse Winker starts his -- and the team remains without its top hitter, Ty France, still on the injured list. Chris Flexen is someone I often back when in Seattle but he's 1-5 with a 4.71 ERA on the road. Looks like all the key healthy Padres are in the lineup. Sean Manaea (3-3, 3.92 ERA) hasn't personally lost since early May and has been excellent at home except for one outing vs. the Dodgers on April 24.

+2011 204-126 IN LAST 330 MLB PICKS

N.Y. Mets 7 @ Cincinnati 4 | 07/04 | 10:40 PM UTC

N.Y. Mets -170

WIN

ANALYSIS: I pondered the Reds runline here because rookie Hunter Greene can be dominant at times, but I'd have to say it's more likely that the Mets tear him up as he has a 5.87 home ERA. Cincinnati is still without regulars Tyler Stephenson (catcher) and Kyle Farmer (shortstop). The Mets are pretty much starting their regulars on the holiday, and Taijuan Walker has had four straight quality starts. Walker has allowed just three home runs in 72.2 innings this season. His 0.33 ERA at Great American Ball Park is the lowest among all pitchers with at least 25.0 innings pitched at the venue. The Reds are 1-8 in their last nine home games vs. a right-handed starter.

+2011 204-126 IN LAST 330 MLB PICKS
+509 12-5 IN LAST 17 CIN ML PICKS
+1627 34-13 IN LAST 47 NYM ML PICKS

Chi. Cubs 2 @ Milwaukee 5 | 07/04 | 8:10 PM UTC

Milwaukee -145

WIN

ANALYSIS: And we're back! Just needed a Sunday off to clear my head a bit -- and glad I did with all the favorites losing on Sunday. Probably will skip the sabbath the rest of the season. Milwaukee pitcher Eric Lauer hasn't been great of late, but he has been much better at home this year with a 2.25 ERA, and when he faced the Cubs on April 30 in Beer Town, he allowed one run with 11 Ks over seven innings. Chicago is 1-4 in its past five vs. a lefty. Former NL MVP Christian Yelich is rolling for the Brewers with a 12-game hitting streak. Cubs southpaw Justin Steele is 0-2 with a 7.29 road ERA. Yelich has good splits off Steele, so perhaps consider a hitting prop on him. Milwaukee has won four straight vs. lefties.

+2011 204-126 IN LAST 330 MLB PICKS
+1345 33-14 IN LAST 47 CHC ML PICKS

N.Y. Yankees 13 @ Cleveland 4 | 07/02 | 4:10 PM UTC

N.Y. Yankees -160

WIN

ANALYSIS: You know. I owe apologies. If the Red Sox had held the lead yesterday I was done and nice day ... they didn't and I chased and it blew up in my face. Feel like I was a monkey/elephant with a prehensile all day. And, yes, I saw video on Twitter and just wanted to say prehensile. Quite sure I didn't use it correctly even as an English major. I can quote Keats. I just don't want to. Never did really. I have no idea how to use prehensile in a sentence (dear SL editors it's not dirty). I think the lesson learned is don't force it. Sometimes the matchups just aren't there. So this may be my last play of weekend. I think the books are giving us a break because it's a doubleheader and we are getting Gerrit Cole this cheaply. I see some others that have Yanks more than -200. So I'm gonna take advantage while Caesars is allowing this and it may not last long. (Even as I prehensile Gerrit Cole. Almost always lose; sometimes there is a quick window where books will put up 1st game DH odds and then change them dramatically. This has happened here.)

+2011 204-126 IN LAST 330 MLB PICKS
+440 6-1 IN LAST 7 CLE ML PICKS

Kansas City 3 @ Detroit 1 | 07/01 | 11:10 PM UTC

Detroit -113

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Guess we will do this too. As John mentioned, Michael Pineda is back for Detroit. He probably is only worth 4-5 innings but should be good ones. But, I mean, the Royals spent Thursday night in Detroit (or Windsor). Most of them have cooties for sure. Royals starter Brad Keller is 1-4 with a 4.98 ERA on the road.

+2011 204-126 IN LAST 330 MLB PICKS
+601 15-7 IN LAST 22 DET ML PICKS