Matt's Picks (2 Live)
Well, can't really have a draw day can I? 1-1-1. Few cents down. Since I can't bet the NBA or NHL without any alt options realistically, yep shall do this, but I might have hantavirus. (Cruises were fun pre-pandemic. But I was likely never going again and definitely am not now. See you on the train.) I believe both these clubs are playing way above their skiis. But the Dads' Michael King has been quite solid and a fair amount of San Diego batters (if limited) have solid splits off STL starter Matthew Liberatore. As a rule, I try not to fade Matthews. Except in the "Lost" pool. #sandiegans #sandiegoites
Getaway day games usually are pitcher-friendly because batters are gassed from the night before. A few regulars on each side appear to be out. Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller has been really good overall and a 2.45 ERA on the road this season, while Arizona's Zac Gallen ... well he has been hit or miss. But the Bucs have totaled two runs in the past three games (yet gone 2-1). This is our only 5 and why will go.
Not that the Royals are very good, but this seems a tad generous of a number with K.C. at home and more important the starting pitching matchup. Cleveland's Slade Cecconi (more on him Thursday) has been one of the worst pitchers in the Show this season at 1-4 with a 6.58 ERA -- that ERA rises to 7.30 away. Also the end of a seven-game trip for the Guards. KC's Seth Lugo (1-1, 2.68 ERA) is about as dependable as they come.
I simply don't think Washington should be a home dog against mega-terrible Twins pitcher Simeon Woods Richardson (0-5, 6.49 ERA). That Minnesota lineup leaves a bit to be desired on a getaway day as well. Not a big fan of the Nats' Jake Irvin, either, at 1-4 with a 4.93 ERA. So I want +1.5 protection. The model has the Nationals winning and I'm leaning that way but don't turn down gifts.
A little chilly with some winds blowing in a second night in a row at Kauffman Stadium. Some full-game totals are down to 7.5 so this seems fair -- I wouldn't play lower and it's the only 4.5 we have. Royals supposed ace Cole Ragans has been just massacred on the road in 2026 but has a 0.75 ERA in 12.0 home innings. He had good numbers vs. the Guardians last year. Cleveland has managed only six total runs in a three-game skid. Southpaw Joey Cantillo allowed one earned over 5.2 vs. KC on April 8 and if he does similar again, we should be golden.
The Phillies are rolling now and paid off for us nicely Tuesday via the newsletter. Cristopher Sanchez was so good that the bullpen is totally rested for Wednesday. So I don't see many reasons why it won't be another W behind Zack Wheeler. A's counterpart Jeffrey Springs was quite good his first four outings of the year but quite poor the past three. He also left his last one with an injury so might not even be 100% but has been cleared.
Thank you Arsenal on Tuesday. Most of our other books have -1 and even one at -1.5, so even at this price for the other semifinal from Germany on Wednesday yep. Bayern is sitting down a goal in the aggregate following last week's utterly bananas 5-4 first leg in Paris. That was fun. PSG did lose a pretty key player to injury in right back Achraf Hakimi, and he's out. Bayern has won five of its seven previous UEFA two-legged ties against French opposition. PSG has lost its past two such vs. German foes.
In some ways, this feels like a trap spot for the Rays ahead of a trip. But they are playing so well and the price so cheap, have to do a half unit. It's matchup of lefties in Patrick Corbin and Shane McClanahan. Corbin has been shockingly good of late for the Jays, but McClanahan hasn't allowed a run in his past two and is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in three home starts. Both these clubs are good vs. southpaws: Toronto 5-3 but Tampa Bay 7-1.
The Bucs start a West Coast trip tonight. Arizona has lost four straight but those were all away. The club is 9-6 at home. Eduardo Rodriguez is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA at home this season. Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler is a touted prospect but has had some major bouts of wildness in his rookie campaign and the team has lost four of the past five he has taken the mound. As you would expect for a young guy, his away splits (0-1, 5.93 ERA) are quite a bit worse.
This is high (at least one book has under -200), but I simply won't play +1.5 for exactly what happened last night in Ducks-Golden Knights Game 1: A tie game with five minutes left ended as a two-goal result due to an empty-netter. So why not -1.5? Because then I'm toast in overtime. The Wild clearly missed the injured Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin in Game 1, and neither will play tonight. Colorado hasn't lost in the postseason yet, although I'd expect Minny to get at least one game back home. On home ice, +1.5 is a different story. The Avs might get back blueliner Josh Manson from injury tonight.
Don't know this is my favorite play ever, but my Michigan peeps deserve some positive news after the Tarik Skubal injury (and the Wings missing the playoffs again). I think the Cavs have the better roster and may win the series, but they looked pretty awful on the road in Round 1 vs. Toronto. James Harden especially was bad in those road games. Dude just can't rise to the occasion in the playoffs apparently. The Pistons seemed to find their mojo in the final three vs. Orlando. The model loves Detroit.
This was not on my radar even with how well the Rays are playing and how strong Drew Rasmussen has been on the mound because Toronto pitcher Kevin Gausman has been quite good too. But Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is taking a seat for the Jays for the first time this season, so that's worth a half-unit. He hasn't hit for much power yet but is among league leaders with a .331 batting average. The totals were all too low ...
Mets-Rockies was postponed to no shock, so will sub in this play. I worry a bit about the Tigers being flat for a while with the Tarik Skubal news. But the D has Framber Valdez on the hill here, and this is exactly the kind of spot why he got big FA money. The team needs a good outing just for its collective psyche. Boston most likely will not have its top two relievers available in closer Aroldis Chapman (who has been unhittable) and setup man Garrett Whitlock as each has pitched the past two games with no day off. Primary starting pitcher Brayan Bello is 1-4 with a 9.12 ERA.