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Matt Severance
Matt Severance
Severance Pays
Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. He believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
LAST 227 MLB PICKS
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Record: 138-83-6
# 1 mlb Expert
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N.Y. Yankees @ Miami | 07/30 | 11:10 PM UTC

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ANALYSIS: Rizzo and Gallo likely to debut as Yankees visit Marlins. ... Join SportsLine here for the pick!

+3083 138-83-6 IN LAST 227 MLB PICKS
+261 10-5 IN LAST 15 NYY ML PICKS
+78 11-7 IN LAST 18 MIA ML PICKS

Oakland 4 @ L.A. Angels | 07/30 | 1:38 AM UTC

Oakland -135

WIN

ANALYSIS: Books just opened this because the Angels will not start Alex Cobb as they hoped (blister) but instead Dylan Bundy (1-7, 6.69). He's the West Coast version of Matt Harvey and should always be faded. His ERA in 5.2 innings vs. Oakland this year? 17.47. A's starter Frankie Montas has a 1.42 ERA in two starts vs. the Angels, who lost another big bat to IL this week in Jared Walsh. Meanwhile, it should be the debut of A's trade acquisition and outfielder Starling Marte.

+3083 138-83-6 IN LAST 227 MLB PICKS
+565 12-5 IN LAST 17 LAA ML PICKS
+293 11-5 IN LAST 16 OAK ML PICKS

Toronto 13 @ Boston 1 | 07/29 | 11:10 PM UTC

Toronto +1.5

WIN

ANALYSIS: Pretty even pitching matchup overall between lefties Hyun Jin Ryu and Eduardo Rodriguez, but Ryu has a 3.00 ERA this year in two starts vs. Boston and Rodriguez has a 5.73 in two vs. Toronto. What sways me toward the Toronto runline is that Sox WAR leader Rafael Devers (3.7 WAR, 27 HRs, 82 RBIs) isn't playing. He has been scorching hot of late. I almost never take outright MLB underdogs on the moneyline.

+3083 138-83-6 IN LAST 227 MLB PICKS
+147 5-3 IN LAST 8 BOS ATS PICKS
+70 2-1 IN LAST 3 TOR ATS PICKS

Baltimore 2 @ Detroit 6 | 07/29 | 11:10 PM UTC

Detroit -153

WIN

ANALYSIS: I suppose you worry about a team a day after scoring 17 runs as it usually seems then said team scores like one, but Detroit was without two of its better hitters Thursday in their 17-14 win over the Vikings, err Twins, in Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera and both are back in there tonight. Detroit enters on a nine-game home winning streak, its longest since a 10-game streak from July 14-August 15, 2013. Former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize (5-5, 3.63) generally won't last more than five innings but usually not give up more than two runs. It's southpaw Alexander Wells for the Birds (1-1, 4.35) and Detroit is 7-3 in its past 10 vs. a lefty.

+3083 138-83-6 IN LAST 227 MLB PICKS
+470 6-1 IN LAST 7 DET ML PICKS
+265 4-1 IN LAST 5 BAL ML PICKS

L.A. Dodgers @ San Francisco 5 | 07/29 | 7:45 PM UTC

L.A. Dodgers -121

LOSS

ANALYSIS: The Dodgers' David Price is clearly not what he used to be, but he has a 2.84 ERA as a starter this year (3.80 in relief) and 2.25 ERA in four innings vs. the Giants, who are trotting out a very watered-down lineup minus Brandon Belt, Evan Longoria, LaMonte Wade and Buster Posey -- although Brandon Crawford is back. A few Dodgers batters have excellent career splits vs. Giants starter Johnny Cueto. He has a 5.57 ERA this month.

+3083 138-83-6 IN LAST 227 MLB PICKS
+189 6-3 IN LAST 9 LAD ML PICKS
+179 3-1 IN LAST 4 SF ML PICKS