Matt's Picks (5 Live)
Is the wrong team favored in Knights-Wild? ...
Colorado hasn't lost three in a row in months. ...
Can the Oilers tie the Kings at 2-2? ...
Matt's Past Picks
Do I like this as much as I did on Friday (ppd.)? Not quite because the Orioles were on no rest and the Tigers were rested. But now we are getting Detroit +1.5 when I don't think whatsoever that should be the case as we weren't on Thursday. What changed? I jump on mistakes regardless of pricing. Brandon Young (6.75 ERA) starts for the Birds vs. one of my favorite 2025 guys in the Tigers' Casey Mize (2.22 ERA). Listed pitchers.
I'm looking forward to seeing Paul Skenes pitch back in his hometown tonight and definitely want to have a play ... and yeah this is high. But obviously if he throws five innings of one-run ball, we win. Seems reasonable. I don't think +1.5 should be offered is really what this is.
The Kings are truly a special team on home ice this season but just 17-19-5 away. Are the Oilers really going to go down 3-0 for the second straight playoff series after last year's Stanley Cup Finals? We love backing desperate teams in their first home playoff game of a series. I expect it to be Calvin Pickard in net Friday as Stuart Skinner was hammered in the first two. By far the difference so far has been special teams as the Kings have scored five power-play goals in the series and gone 5-for-5 on the PK. Teams generally are much better (and get more calls) on special teams on home ice.
The Rays come off back-to-back extra-inning games in Arizona so their bullpen is pretty well shredded. It's also the first road start of the season for Shane Baz, so that's always a minor adjustment. San Diego's Michael King is 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA in three home starts. The Dads are 12-1 at home.
The Bucks did come from down 2-0 in both the East Finals and NBA Finals in their 2021 championship run and there are a few guys back from that club led by Giannis, but clearly this team is not in that one's stratosphere. That said, I do think the Bucks get Game 3 on Friday at home even if that's their only one. The Pacers did lose both there in the RS. And having two days off after Game 2 instead of one can only help Damian Lillard.
I was in mid-type when I saw Thomas Casale posted same play. If Jose Berrios vs. Aaron Judge were a famous one-sided sports rivalry, Berrios is the Washington Generals and AJ the Harlem Globetrotters. Or I guess if you want to go Canada-USA beef: Drake-Kendrick Lamar. I have no idea what that means ... but apparently Lamar is winning and that's Judge against Berrios (who is also struggling this year overall): 1.346 OPS in 34 at-bats with two doubles and five homers. I don't really do HR props and am just fine with a ground-rule double in the bottom of the first so I can then ignore this game.
This is the new number with Jaylen Brown (questionable) added to the injury report along with Jrue Holiday (questionable) and Jayson Tatum (doubtful). Almost sure Tatum won't play and maybe the C's are simply playing some mind games regarding Brown and Holiday ... but in case they aren't and somewhat treating this as a "punt" game. The NBA definitely in this betting era monitors these late injury report adds in the playoffs so Brown going on late tends to make me think he could indeed sit. Orlando might win anyways.
It's possible the Grizzlies have mailed it in since Taylor Jenkins was fired, but if they are going to show anything in this series, it would certainly be tonight at home. I mean, this team looked like a potential West finalist a few months ago and has just imploded. Might be easy for OKC to let off the gas a little after back-to-back home blowout wins. Backdoor cover is fine. If the Grizzlies can't lose by single digits, then yeah everyone has quit and it might be time to move Ja Morant and all his distractions. I have a Bulls trade idea: Morant for Patrick Williams, Nikola Vucevic and this year's first. That would apparently been enough for Luka Doncic! But guessing the Grizz laugh.
Like Dallas the other night, I tend to think the Wild win outright but won't turn down a home +1 and be fine with a push in an OT loss or the like. Minnesota star Kirill Kaprizov has returned to the form that saw him as the Hart Trophy favorite for a while before injury as he has five points in the first two games. Wild goalie Filip Gustavsson won his final two home RS starts, allowing two goals in each. Minnesota is generally vastly superior defensively on home. The Vegas top line of Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev doesn't have a combined point.
KAT was a complete no-show in the fourth quarter of Game 2 with Jalen Brunson frankly ball-hogging shot-wise. But Towns is the team's best 3-point shooter, so I think an early game plan tonight will be to get him going. Game 2 snapped a streak of 10 straight 20-point games against Detroit for KAT dating back to his Wolves days. He also shot better and scored a bit more on the road during the 2024-25 RS.