Matt's Picks (4 Live)
This is already ticking up and if De'Von Achane is ruled out for Miami, it surely will land north of -200. So let's take it now. Achane has been a huge reason the Fins have won four straight, rushing for at least 160 yards as a team in each. Will the Steelers really blow their huge Week 14 win in Baltimore for control of the AFC North by giving this one away? Miami has lost 13 straight games with game-time temperatures under 40 degrees and also 13 in a row on the road vs. teams entering with winning records. Both are the longest active losing streaks in the NFL.
There appears to be a bit of a bug going around the Kings' locker room as they will be without two centers in Quinton Byfield (19 points, +5) and Phillip Danault (five points, +3). The Kings are slumping offensively anyways with three total goals in a two-game skid that both included overtime. It is Stars backup Casey DeSmith, but he has better numbers (2.23 GAA, .920 SV) than No. 1 Jake Oettinger does. Dallas is also getting a bit heathier on the blueline. It has gotten points in their last seven games played vs. Los Angeles at American Airlines Center (6-0-1).
Extremely fair price on the Jets after reigning Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck returned from injury over the weekend and dominated in a win over Washington. Third different city since Thursday for Ottawa, which is down three injured regulars in forwards in Lars Eller and Shane Pinto and blueliner Thomas Chabot. The Jets swept this series last season pretty easily.
I don't get this number even if Zion Williamson returns for the Pels. Just so tired of the Bulls' mediocrity that I'm not even sure I care any longer -- but I still think they are better than New Orleans. And they appeared to blow it yet again in the 2025 draft not taking Derik Queen, who went 13th to NO and having a nice year. Chicago took French forward Noa Essengue with the No. 12 pick and he has played 6 minutes this year and will not again due to injury. Maybe if the Bulls had an owner who actually cared about winning. The Reinsdorf family will never sell as the club is a cash cow. They will dump the White Sox. A start.
Well, Milwaukee chose not to cooperate earlier this afternoon (had every chance to win that game at the end) so hopefully Portland will. This seems a good 4 points high to me. Kent State might be the MAC's best team but plays its first true road game. The Pilots have two good freshmen in guard Joel Foxwell and forward Timo George. Foxwell has already earned two WCC Freshman of the Week awards and leads the WCC in assists per game (6.2) and is third among league freshmen in scoring (13.2). He is the NCAA freshman leader in assists per game. George leads the WCC and ranks fourth nationally in field goal percentage (.708). Portland is 9-2 SU in its past 11 at home.
I'm smashing everything under on Indy this week. Hey, if Philip Rivers can get up off his baby-making couch and light up a terrific defense on the road, I am completely fine losing this. I just can't believe that is a possibility short of some backdoor nonsense. And yes, an offshore book has a prop on Over Rivers' longest completion yardage vs. number of kids (10.5). Also an O/U of how many will be there: 4.5. Not sure how that is graded (major max limit) but I still love it.
Hopefully the Rams beat the daylights out of the Lions as that only helps the Bears, and Matthew Stafford surely will be fired up to face his former club again. But it's just not that easy to score 32 points in an NFL game. Only 25 clubs in history averaged at least that many in a season according to Grok. Or Gronk, whatever. Probably same trustworthiness. The model has Los Angeles at 27. About what I'm thinking. 30 is fine. so is 31. I wouldn't go lower.
I just posted the model sims in my sub-room on Discord and once again it has RJ Harvey quite high up on the anytime TD list -- and this seems like a crazy generous number. Yeah the Packers are pretty good defensively, but Harvey can score as a runner or receiver. He has found paydirt in two straight. Just don't get hurt. Need you next week in the Fantasy playoffs (I got a bye, much to my own surprise).
Thank you Richmond for restoring my faith in humanity Saturday. I'm not saying I would have gone all Unabomber (metaphorically of course) if had lost, but I might have grown a lot of facial hair and moved to a shack in the woods and been that weird uncle or whatnot. But the Spiders paid for us and I think the Panthers will too. This probably should be in the -230 range or 5.5 on the spread. ISU has been upended as head coach Matthew Graves had to take a leave of absence in late October after heart surgery. Well wishes.
12.5 ... not sure I've seen a lower team total all season. And it makes some sense with Brady Cook set to become the first Jets undrafted rookie quarterback to start a game since J.J. Jones in 1975 when he spelled Joe Namath for a game (I honestly was not aware Namath was still a Jet at that point and I've never in my life heard of J.J. Jones; I'm sure he hasn't heard of me either). The Jets can throw caution to the wind because they aren't playing for anything. Just start chukking bombs and see what sticks. They can't get to 13? Our model has 17. And if we get a special teams or defensive TD then I think we cash for sure.
This game utterly terrifies me as a Bears fan because I can see Myles Garrett going all Charles Martin on Caleb Williams -- a la Jim McMahon in 1986 -- and set the franchise back years. I do think it's an ugly slugfest especially with the weather: Forecast for Sunday calls for a high of 10 degrees, with wind chills around -10 and some wind. It's expected to be one of the coldest games in Soldier Field history. I grew up in the Midwest. Playing football in the snow is fun. Playing in bitter cold with no snow is decidedly unfun. 20-17 or something like that works for me, but we might be looking at White Sox 6, Guardians 3.