Matt's Picks (3 Live)
Somewhat calm before the storm pre-stretch run in the NHL with just the one game Monday. Simply a must-get two points for the Senators, who are just outside the current East playoff field. They are on a 13-5 run. The Blueshirts are in full quit mode, losing a fourth straight Sunday in a shootout to Winnipeg. Inexplicably, New York is now 9-17-7 at Madison Square Garden, which used to rival whatever the Avalanche's building is called these days as the toughest place for opponents to play in the league. Igor Shesterkin has been average this month with a 3.15 GAA.
Huge number for Wemby, who averages 22.7 points on the road this season and is about at that number via our model tonight in Miami. The Heat have two good bigs to help slow Wembanyama in Bam Adebayo and Kel'el Ware. In three of his past four, Wemby hasn't come close to at least 28 points. Also, Stephon Castle is back from a two-game injury absence and Castle certainly may siphon off a few shot attempts. Wembanyama scored 27 in 40 minutes in the first meeting. If he plays around 40 again, yeah, this probably loses.
The Lightning are certainly light years better than the Flames but it's a tricky spot for Tampa Bay in the second of a back-to-back off a marquee win in Edmonton on Saturday -- always tough to complete the "Alberta Sweep" -- and the end of a long trip. Hall of Fame blueliner Victor Hedman sat Saturday and probably does here and we will get backup Jonas Johansson, who allowed eight goals last time out. That was his third time giving up at least five in his past four outings. Johansson's last win was Jan. 12.
Not sure what to expect from Nashville's Matt Murray (not the Seattle one) in his first NHL start since the 2023-24 season, but he faces a Hawks offense that is third-to-last in the league, and Murray had good numbers in the AHL this year. Chicago's Spencer Knight has a 2.52 home GAA. Two of the three matchups this season in the series have landed Under. The Preds average 2.8 goals away. This is our only book at 6.5 and may flip to 5.5 soon.
Is the wrong team a slight favorite in this Ligue 1 match Sunday? Perhaps as Lyon is two spots and four points higher in the table than AS Monaco. It also won the reverse fixture 3-1 on Jan. 3. But I get it as the visitors -- behind Team USA's Falorin Balogun -- are rolling and the hosts are winless in five in all competitions -- but four of those were draws and all we want here. They have yet to lose a league match at home in 2026 with two total goals conceded.
Will the tanking Mavericks try at all is the main question because they are rested and pretty healthy. The Clippers have lost four straight, and it's the end of a three-game trip with Kawhi Leonard in question. With really not a ton to play for locked into the Play-In Tournament, I'd certainly just rest Kawhi if not close to 100% until get back home, but that's me. Trade acquisition Bennedict Mathurin is out again. He has been quite good since coming from Indiana, averaging 18.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game. Our model has L.A. by three and it projects Kawhi as playing.
Another big game in the East playoff race between these Original Six rivals. Probably a coin flip/pass at a neutral site, but the Bruins are well under .500 away and No. 1 goalie Jeremy Swayman's 3.29 road GAA is nearly a goal higher than at home. The Wings get a few injured guys back but not quite Dylan Larkin yet, so will keep to a half-unit -- also to ensure finishing up in hockey thanks to Columbus' just-completed cover.
I lean toward a push like we got in Jets-Penguins earlier this afternoon but maybe we get lucky. Seattle is no slouch but outscored 9-3 in a two-game skid and .500 away. Columbus has the league's fewest regulation home losses and has won three straight overall. The Blue Jackets, a completely different team since a mid-January coaching change -- turnarounds seem to happen more with NHL midseason coaching changes than other leagues -- are fully healthy and won the first meeting in a shootout.
On a bit of a spring roll so will go one more day and then call it an exhibition season. The Guardians used eight pitchers last night in giving up 20 runs to Seattle and this is their Cactus League road finale ahead of their home finale in Arizona. So nearly every regular is out today while probably playing Sunday. About an Opening Day lineup for the Giants in their spring finale overall and the excellent Robbie Ray is on the mound. Next MLB play will be the Yanks-Giants RS opener on Wednesday night. Looking forward to the season.
Definitely disappointed with Chelsea's effort in a 3-0 second-leg Champions League loss to PSG on Tuesday, but that the Blues are in a quick turnaround and have lost three straight in all competitions with just two goals scored has me on Everton, which is only two spots lower in the Premier League table and off since last Saturday. Since 2018, Chelsea has a single win at Everton. Key center-back Trevoh Chalobah was hurt vs. PSG and among Blues players out today. They are especially thin on defense as they eye their first double vs. the Toffees since 2016-17. I'm eyeing a draw.
The Pens can't lose on Kris Letang bobblehead day! I wouldn't mind having one of the future Hall of Famer myself (rather have Sidney Crosby, who just returned from his long injury absence) even if not a fan of the team. It is Pittsburgh's first home game since March 8 and it has won 20 of the past 23 on home ice in this series. The Jets, in the front of a B2B, enter having lost two in a row to probably end any slim playoff hopes. The Pens are an East playoff team as things stand but it's very tight and a regulation loss could knock them out temporarily. Bryan Rust has a five-game points streak and Rickard Rakell seven in a row.
Seems a very fair price on Espanyol DNB considering it sits two points higher in the La Liga table than Getafe. I don't always bet teams sitting higher but on a Draw No Bet number like this it seems prudent. We are getting a discount because the hosts are struggling, but they won the reverse fixture 1-0 in mid-December. Getafe has been blanked in three of its past six overall. Starting defender Abdelkabir Abqar (great James Bond villain name) is suspended. Only bottom-of-table Real Oviedo has scored fewer goals than Getafe. Espanyol can score, it just can't defend much. Probably pushes.