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Matt Severance

Severance Pays

Matt Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, Matt quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Over the past three NBA seasons, Matt has returned $4,452 to $100 bettors. Over the past four MLB seasons, Matt is up $1,681. And over the past four college basketball seasons, Matt is up $887. He went 103-89-2 (plus $665) in the 2023 college football season and 121-93-2 (plus $589) in the 2023 NFL season. Matt believes in buying points in football to get off a push number like 3 or 7. He understands that oddsmakers don't do as much homework on lower-tier FBS games, creating betting opportunities. And he says homefield advantage is underrated in some markets and overrated in others. For Matt Severance media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

@jordanpaytonsn1
LAST 47 NFL ML PICKS
+1860
RECORD: 36-11-0
# 5 NFL EXPERT
+1860
36-11 IN LAST 47 NFL ML PICKS

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Matt's Picks (1 Live)

Jan 14 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Minnesota
@ L.A. Rams
Matt's PickSubscribers Only
Unit0.5
+552
46-28 in Last 74 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

How will Sam Darnold fare vs. the Rams? ...

Pick Made: 2:30 pm UTC on FanDuel

Matt's Past Picks

Jan 13 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Washington
23
@ Tampa Bay
20
+1860
36-11 in Last 47 NFL ML Picks
+87.5
7-5 in Last 12 TB ML Picks
Analysis:

I'm not a big believer in the Bucs, but they are a LOT healthier today then they were last Sunday in a must-win struggle over New Orleans with All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield among those back. Washington's Jayden Daniels looks as if he will be special -- not ready to say the Bears made a mistake taking Caleb Williams as I think he will be very good (but perhaps not special) -- but the Commanders are 0-3 ATS in their past three away and rookie QBs are 0-6 SU in road playoff games over the past 10 years after Bo Nix and Denver got blown out this afternoon.

Pick Made: Sun 9:39 pm UTC on Sugar House
Jan 12 2025, 6:00 pm UTC
League
Denver
7
@ Buffalo
31
+552
46-28 in Last 74 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

This could be a blowout so perhaps Josh Allen (only six INTs all season) won't be passing much. He has absurd Wild-Card numbers in his career with just one pick. As long as Allen avoids Patrick Surtain's side of the field, I think we are OK barring some Hail Mary-type pick at the end of a half or a tipped ball, etc.

Pick Made: Jan 12, 3:38 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 12 2025, 1:00 am UTC
League
Pittsburgh
14
@ Baltimore
28
+1614
103-69-2 in Last 174 NFL Picks
+302
9-7-1 in Last 17 NFL ATS Picks
+211.25
8-6 in Last 14 BAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

Before Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by 17 in Week 16, there had been nine straight one-score games between these rivals, and I think we will see that again if the Steelers can "slow" the game down and keep Lamar Jackson & Co. off the field. I was pondering holding out for +10.5 but always considered that unlikely and now even the 10s might disappear with the news that Ravens Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers likely is out. Mike Tomlin is usually money ATS as a dog.

Pick Made: Jan 08, 2:09 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 11 2025, 9:30 pm UTC
League
L.A. Chargers
12
@ Houston
32
+1614
103-69-2 in Last 174 NFL Picks
+302
9-7-1 in Last 17 NFL ATS Picks
+484
8-3 in Last 11 HOU ATS Picks
Analysis:

So guess I'm the contrarian today -- I've been called worse already this morning by the missus -- with seven experts thus far all on Chargers -2.5 (and one moneyline play). And I get that. But Los Angeles -- and some guys might not exactly have their minds right with all that's going on back home -- was 8-1 vs. teams .500 or worse this season and 2-5 against playoff teams with both wins vs. Denver. That good Houston defense, which ranks first in the NFL in opposing completion percentage (58.8) and second in picks (19), could give Justin Herbert some trouble. The SL model has Bolts by a point. Works for me.

Pick Made: Jan 11, 4:57 pm UTC on DraftKings
Jan 06 2025, 1:20 am UTC
League
Minnesota
9
@ Detroit
31
+1860
36-11 in Last 47 NFL ML Picks
+835
13-3 in Last 16 MIN ML Picks
Analysis:

If Sam Darnold has become a ginger Dan Marino all of a sudden, good for him. I do believe good coaching can change a career. See Trestman, Marc in the ruining category. But winning in Ford Field against future Bears coach Ben Johnson (please, please) for the NFC North title and conference's top seed? I don't think so. Blitz away, Brian Flores. This is the offense designed to abuse that.

Pick Made: Jan 01, 3:26 pm UTC on Sugar House
Jan 05 2025, 9:25 pm UTC
League
Kansas City
0
@ Denver
38
+552
46-28 in Last 74 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

If you could get your friend a $2 million bonus would you? I'm gonna assume yes. I certainly would. Denver's Courtland Sutton gets that much if he gets 82 receiving yards on Sunday -- in a game the Broncos have to win. I promise you that Bo Nix knows about this, so it won't be for a lack of targets.

Pick Made: Jan 02, 10:01 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 05 2025, 9:25 pm UTC
League
San Francisco
24
@ Arizona
47
+1860
36-11 in Last 47 NFL ML Picks
+579.5
7-1 in Last 8 SF ML Picks
Analysis:

This feels like the classic case of a coach trying to build something -- Arizona's Jonathan Gannon -- who will play all his healthy starters against one who may not -- SF's Kyle Shanahan after so many extra playoff games the past few years. Short week for the Niners, anyways, and Brock Purdy probably is out for legit reasons after hurting his elbow on Monday night. I rather doubt most key 49ers play in this meaningless one.

Pick Made: Dec 31, 1:27 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 05 2025, 6:00 pm UTC
League
New Orleans
19
@ Tampa Bay
27
+552
46-28 in Last 74 NFL Player Props Picks
Analysis:

Big number, but Mike Evans has a $3 million bonus if he gets to five catches and 85 yards receiving in Week 18. Remember a couple of years ago where Tom Brady said to the coaches "don't you pull me" so he could get Rob Gronkowski his big bonus? I prefer the yards to catches for the obvious reason that Evans can top the yards on one play (although ME isn't really that fleet of foot these days to take a long TD to the house) and the Bucs have to play to win, so it's not like he will be pulled early.

Pick Made: Jan 02, 9:04 pm UTC on BetMGM
Jan 04 2025, 9:30 pm UTC
League
Cleveland
10
@ Baltimore
35
Analysis:

R.J. White knows a lot more football than I do, but when he posted Under 11.5 I almost fainted. 11.5!!?? Not sure I even would have noticed otherwise as I'm not a huge team totals guy. I can't say for sure this is the smallest team total I've ever seen as I was a pup when the 1985 Bears dominated, but wowza. Yep, the Browns have been in single digits for three straight games but this feels like blowout central and I mean if Cleveland scores one garbage TD, we probably win. Or one defensive/special teams TD. Also end of season, I expect some trick plays, etc.

Pick Made: Jan 01, 4:25 pm UTC on Sugar House
Jan 04 2025, 9:30 pm UTC
League
Cleveland
10
@ Baltimore
35
+1614
103-69-2 in Last 174 NFL Picks
+302
9-7-1 in Last 17 NFL ATS Picks
+211.25
8-6 in Last 14 BAL ATS Picks
Analysis:

I'm a little hesitant to play this now as it might go higher, but yowza 20.5 points. Yes, the Ravens need to win for the AFC North title but also will be playing on Wild-Card Weekend, so you'd think they get up big and call off the dogs and get Lamar Jackson & Co. out of there. I have to play something at this number on principle, and I still will believe it's the right play even if it's Baltimore 48, Browns 3. NFL faves of at least 20 points are 3-7 ATS in their past 10. As Mike Tierney pointed out as well, NFL dogs by at least 13.5 points are 3-3 ATS this season. And we are way over 13.5.

Pick Made: Jan 03, 5:13 pm UTC on BetMGM
Dec 31 2024, 1:15 am UTC
League
Detroit
40
@ San Francisco
34
+1614
103-69-2 in Last 174 NFL Picks
+302
9-7-1 in Last 17 NFL ATS Picks
+792
13-4-2 in Last 19 DET ATS Picks
Analysis:

Wouldn't it be human nature for the Lions players to be looking past this game -- even in an NFC title game rematch -- toward a short week and massive Sunday night showdown against the Vikings for the North title and NFC's top seed? I sure think so. I know Dan Campbell says his team is all-in here, but one injury and maybe Campbell changes his tune and starts pulling guys because this is meaningless in the grand scheme of things for his guys. But at least we got over the key number of 4.

Pick Made: Dec 31, 12:22 am UTC on DraftKings
Dec 29 2024, 6:00 pm UTC
League
Tennessee
13
@ Jacksonville
20
+1860
36-11 in Last 47 NFL ML Picks
+250
3-0 in Last 3 TEN ML Picks
Analysis:

When you have two teams playing out the string, I need a reason to not fade the road club. And I don't have one here -- especially as the Titans are sans leading rusher Tony Pollard (and a couple of O-Linemen), who also is a decent factor in the passing game. The Jaguars are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games.

Pick Made: Dec 29, 5:05 pm UTC on DraftKings
Dec 28 2024, 9:30 pm UTC
League
Denver
24
@ Cincinnati
30
+1860
36-11 in Last 47 NFL ML Picks
+800
9-0 in Last 9 DEN ML Picks
Analysis:

The Broncos need just one victory for a playoff spot ... but also know they have a Week 18 home game in their pocket against what might be a Chiefs team resting all its starters. Cincinnati has zero wiggle room: Must win out and get help. Joe Burrow is playing out of his mind with seven straight games with at least three TD throws. Denver's defense has allowed about 700 combined yards in the past two games and those were against Anthony Richardson and a bit of a gimpy Justin Herbert. Burrow is obviously in a different class.

Pick Made: Dec 23, 6:58 pm UTC on BetMGM
Dec 28 2024, 6:00 pm UTC
League
L.A. Chargers
40
@ New England
7
+1614
103-69-2 in Last 174 NFL Picks
+59
2-1 in Last 3 NE O/U Picks
Analysis:

Haven't done a ton of totals this season for whatever reason. I'm generally not a fan of them because they can be irrelevant to the game result, and I'm still kinda stuck in that zone. But the weather doesn't look all that lovely in the Boston area with cold rain, and we have two older-school head coaches who probably would both prefer to run the Wing-T and not throw the ball at all. Our model has 39 points scored. I'm a tad surprised with the forecast this is above the key number of 41.

Pick Made: Dec 28, 5:09 pm UTC on FanDuel
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