Saquon Barkley's yardage total is the highest in history. ...

This might be the biggest number I've ever seen on a running back. Do you know how hard it is to rush for at least 117 yards in a playoff game? It has been done only four times in Eagles history. Granted, one was by NFL rushing champion Saquon Barkley with 119 last week vs. Green Bay, but this number is still crazy high. I expect the Rams to sell out and stack the box after Barkley gouged them for 255 in the regular season and make Jalen Hurts win through the air. Our model has Barkley at 109.5.

Older age is weird. As long as Matlock is on, I am happy. Kidding, not that old but I have to pump our CBS shows -- the reboot actually is pretty solid, but I've always like Kathy Bates since she knocked whatever ankle bones in Misery. Poor James Caan. Shot multiple times in the Godfather and then Misery. So barring the Lions in the SB, I'm gonna cash out on the NFL season after this. Been nice year with favorites. I just don't see the Rams winning on the East Coast on a short week in potentially wintry weather.

I totally understand this, but 33 points is a lot to score in a playoff game when you are simply trying to win and advance -- and I'm assuming the Commanders will try and chew clock wherever possible when they have the ball to keep that No. 1 Detroit offense on the bench. While this Lions O was better than last year's, the 2023 Lions scored 24 and 31 points in their two playoff games at Ford Field. Playoff games are usually differently paced -- only two teams got to 30 points on Wild Card Weekend and none past 32. Would I go any lower than this number? Probably not, and our model has Detroit right at 33 points.

I'm not sure how fully healthy David Montgomery is, but I am darn sure that Mr. Tough Guy Dan Campbell respects the heck out of Monty for working his way back so quickly from a potentially serious knee injury that he's going to reward him with a TD if at all possible.

If we throw out facing the Lions, who seem to have his number, Sam Darnold has thrown at least two TD passes in all but three games this season. He got to two TDs in the first quarter of the first meeting with the Rams -- they allowed 29 TD passes this year, among the most in the league.

Can't say I trust Sam Darnold much, but he was fabulous this season other than when he faced Detroit for the most part. All things equal, I probably would have taken the Rams at home but the Chargers sure didn't look very focused on Saturday in Houston with all that's going on in Los Angeles. I actually do believe the fan support in Phoenix will be more Vikings than Rams -- Arizona is basically Illinois/Wisconsin/Minnesota West. The Vikes didn't have star TE TJ Hockenson or top linebacker Blake Coleman in the first meeting, their only loss besides the two vs. Detroit. Road favorites are 7-1 ATS in Monday games this season.

I'm not a big believer in the Bucs, but they are a LOT healthier today then they were last Sunday in a must-win struggle over New Orleans with All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield among those back. Washington's Jayden Daniels looks as if he will be special -- not ready to say the Bears made a mistake taking Caleb Williams as I think he will be very good (but perhaps not special) -- but the Commanders are 0-3 ATS in their past three away and rookie QBs are 0-6 SU in road playoff games over the past 10 years after Bo Nix and Denver got blown out this afternoon.

This could be a blowout so perhaps Josh Allen (only six INTs all season) won't be passing much. He has absurd Wild-Card numbers in his career with just one pick. As long as Allen avoids Patrick Surtain's side of the field, I think we are OK barring some Hail Mary-type pick at the end of a half or a tipped ball, etc.

Before Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by 17 in Week 16, there had been nine straight one-score games between these rivals, and I think we will see that again if the Steelers can "slow" the game down and keep Lamar Jackson & Co. off the field. I was pondering holding out for +10.5 but always considered that unlikely and now even the 10s might disappear with the news that Ravens Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers likely is out. Mike Tomlin is usually money ATS as a dog.

So guess I'm the contrarian today -- I've been called worse already this morning by the missus -- with seven experts thus far all on Chargers -2.5 (and one moneyline play). And I get that. But Los Angeles -- and some guys might not exactly have their minds right with all that's going on back home -- was 8-1 vs. teams .500 or worse this season and 2-5 against playoff teams with both wins vs. Denver. That good Houston defense, which ranks first in the NFL in opposing completion percentage (58.8) and second in picks (19), could give Justin Herbert some trouble. The SL model has Bolts by a point. Works for me.

If Sam Darnold has become a ginger Dan Marino all of a sudden, good for him. I do believe good coaching can change a career. See Trestman, Marc in the ruining category. But winning in Ford Field against future Bears coach Ben Johnson (please, please) for the NFC North title and conference's top seed? I don't think so. Blitz away, Brian Flores. This is the offense designed to abuse that.

If you could get your friend a $2 million bonus would you? I'm gonna assume yes. I certainly would. Denver's Courtland Sutton gets that much if he gets 82 receiving yards on Sunday -- in a game the Broncos have to win. I promise you that Bo Nix knows about this, so it won't be for a lack of targets.

This feels like the classic case of a coach trying to build something -- Arizona's Jonathan Gannon -- who will play all his healthy starters against one who may not -- SF's Kyle Shanahan after so many extra playoff games the past few years. Short week for the Niners, anyways, and Brock Purdy probably is out for legit reasons after hurting his elbow on Monday night. I rather doubt most key 49ers play in this meaningless one.

Big number, but Mike Evans has a $3 million bonus if he gets to five catches and 85 yards receiving in Week 18. Remember a couple of years ago where Tom Brady said to the coaches "don't you pull me" so he could get Rob Gronkowski his big bonus? I prefer the yards to catches for the obvious reason that Evans can top the yards on one play (although ME isn't really that fleet of foot these days to take a long TD to the house) and the Bucs have to play to win, so it's not like he will be pulled early.