How will Sam Darnold fare vs. the Rams? ...

I'm not a big believer in the Bucs, but they are a LOT healthier today then they were last Sunday in a must-win struggle over New Orleans with All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield among those back. Washington's Jayden Daniels looks as if he will be special -- not ready to say the Bears made a mistake taking Caleb Williams as I think he will be very good (but perhaps not special) -- but the Commanders are 0-3 ATS in their past three away and rookie QBs are 0-6 SU in road playoff games over the past 10 years after Bo Nix and Denver got blown out this afternoon.

This could be a blowout so perhaps Josh Allen (only six INTs all season) won't be passing much. He has absurd Wild-Card numbers in his career with just one pick. As long as Allen avoids Patrick Surtain's side of the field, I think we are OK barring some Hail Mary-type pick at the end of a half or a tipped ball, etc.

Before Baltimore beat Pittsburgh by 17 in Week 16, there had been nine straight one-score games between these rivals, and I think we will see that again if the Steelers can "slow" the game down and keep Lamar Jackson & Co. off the field. I was pondering holding out for +10.5 but always considered that unlikely and now even the 10s might disappear with the news that Ravens Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers likely is out. Mike Tomlin is usually money ATS as a dog.

So guess I'm the contrarian today -- I've been called worse already this morning by the missus -- with seven experts thus far all on Chargers -2.5 (and one moneyline play). And I get that. But Los Angeles -- and some guys might not exactly have their minds right with all that's going on back home -- was 8-1 vs. teams .500 or worse this season and 2-5 against playoff teams with both wins vs. Denver. That good Houston defense, which ranks first in the NFL in opposing completion percentage (58.8) and second in picks (19), could give Justin Herbert some trouble. The SL model has Bolts by a point. Works for me.

If Sam Darnold has become a ginger Dan Marino all of a sudden, good for him. I do believe good coaching can change a career. See Trestman, Marc in the ruining category. But winning in Ford Field against future Bears coach Ben Johnson (please, please) for the NFC North title and conference's top seed? I don't think so. Blitz away, Brian Flores. This is the offense designed to abuse that.

If you could get your friend a $2 million bonus would you? I'm gonna assume yes. I certainly would. Denver's Courtland Sutton gets that much if he gets 82 receiving yards on Sunday -- in a game the Broncos have to win. I promise you that Bo Nix knows about this, so it won't be for a lack of targets.

This feels like the classic case of a coach trying to build something -- Arizona's Jonathan Gannon -- who will play all his healthy starters against one who may not -- SF's Kyle Shanahan after so many extra playoff games the past few years. Short week for the Niners, anyways, and Brock Purdy probably is out for legit reasons after hurting his elbow on Monday night. I rather doubt most key 49ers play in this meaningless one.

Big number, but Mike Evans has a $3 million bonus if he gets to five catches and 85 yards receiving in Week 18. Remember a couple of years ago where Tom Brady said to the coaches "don't you pull me" so he could get Rob Gronkowski his big bonus? I prefer the yards to catches for the obvious reason that Evans can top the yards on one play (although ME isn't really that fleet of foot these days to take a long TD to the house) and the Bucs have to play to win, so it's not like he will be pulled early.

R.J. White knows a lot more football than I do, but when he posted Under 11.5 I almost fainted. 11.5!!?? Not sure I even would have noticed otherwise as I'm not a huge team totals guy. I can't say for sure this is the smallest team total I've ever seen as I was a pup when the 1985 Bears dominated, but wowza. Yep, the Browns have been in single digits for three straight games but this feels like blowout central and I mean if Cleveland scores one garbage TD, we probably win. Or one defensive/special teams TD. Also end of season, I expect some trick plays, etc.

I'm a little hesitant to play this now as it might go higher, but yowza 20.5 points. Yes, the Ravens need to win for the AFC North title but also will be playing on Wild-Card Weekend, so you'd think they get up big and call off the dogs and get Lamar Jackson & Co. out of there. I have to play something at this number on principle, and I still will believe it's the right play even if it's Baltimore 48, Browns 3. NFL faves of at least 20 points are 3-7 ATS in their past 10. As Mike Tierney pointed out as well, NFL dogs by at least 13.5 points are 3-3 ATS this season. And we are way over 13.5.

Wouldn't it be human nature for the Lions players to be looking past this game -- even in an NFC title game rematch -- toward a short week and massive Sunday night showdown against the Vikings for the North title and NFC's top seed? I sure think so. I know Dan Campbell says his team is all-in here, but one injury and maybe Campbell changes his tune and starts pulling guys because this is meaningless in the grand scheme of things for his guys. But at least we got over the key number of 4.

When you have two teams playing out the string, I need a reason to not fade the road club. And I don't have one here -- especially as the Titans are sans leading rusher Tony Pollard (and a couple of O-Linemen), who also is a decent factor in the passing game. The Jaguars are 6-3 ATS in their past nine games.

The Broncos need just one victory for a playoff spot ... but also know they have a Week 18 home game in their pocket against what might be a Chiefs team resting all its starters. Cincinnati has zero wiggle room: Must win out and get help. Joe Burrow is playing out of his mind with seven straight games with at least three TD throws. Denver's defense has allowed about 700 combined yards in the past two games and those were against Anthony Richardson and a bit of a gimpy Justin Herbert. Burrow is obviously in a different class.

Haven't done a ton of totals this season for whatever reason. I'm generally not a fan of them because they can be irrelevant to the game result, and I'm still kinda stuck in that zone. But the weather doesn't look all that lovely in the Boston area with cold rain, and we have two older-school head coaches who probably would both prefer to run the Wing-T and not throw the ball at all. Our model has 39 points scored. I'm a tad surprised with the forecast this is above the key number of 41.