Isaac TeSlaa was the talk of the combine with his rare combination of speed and athleticism. Through a limited workload this season he's been targeted in the red zone given his unique skill set. However it's a yardage total tonight I just can't buy as oddsmakers are slotting him as the #2 pass catching option for the Lions. On thanksgiving he had an 83.9% route share, 35 receiving yards, a 7.4% target share, and a 12.5% first-read. Let's see how things go but he's a fade candidate for me as a high volume option.

I liked what I saw last week from Cam Ward and the Titans offense against one of the league's best defenses. There was purpose and more importantly a semblance of balance that should pay dividends this week. Jacksonville finds themselves on the road again this week after a hard fought OT win with a game against division leading Indianapolis looming. Look betting the Titans is rarely fun but if they can stop the run and turn the Jags into a 1 dimensional outfit the home dog is very live in Nashville.

Look, this season hasn't gone the way that Chubba Hubbard expected dealing with injury and then losing his job to Rico Dowdle. However we're starting to see some tread on Dowdle's tires and there appears to be a path for Hubbard to get back in the mix. Over his last 5 games he's had a rushing floor of 14 yards and being given touches to spell RB1. If that trend continues today I think he's got an excellent chance to get to 20+ so it's worth a small bet in Santa Clara

Don't look now but the Eagles defense has held two good offenses in check the last two weeks limiting the Packers to 10 points and the Lions to just 9. However there's noise in those figures when you consider the game at Lambeau was played in frigid conditions and last Sunday they faced the Lions in gale force winds. In steps a Cowboys offense playing at elite level and they'll challenge not only the Eagles stop unit but an offense that's struggled to find consistency. I know it's not the best of the number but there's still a bet to made here with Dallas at home catching the 3.

I don't see Mason Rudolph as a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers at this point in their respective careers. The Bears have lived a charmed life so far and the schedule is about to get a lot more difficult for them going forward (hopefully starting this week). Add in a cluster injury situation at LB for Chicago and asking the Bears to win a game by more than a field goal feels like a tight spot. We'll take the dog and hope Mason has success against this Bears' stop unit

We know CJ Stroud is out against the Titans; we don't know if CJ Stroud will be back on a short week against Buffalo. The Bills are about to play in a weather game against the Bucs that will impact offensive perception on a short week. If Stroud does clear protocol and play vs the Bills we have a good bet...if he isn't able to go and misses his third straight game we have a great bet. Jump on this lookahead early as I expect the total re-opens in the 42 range

Don't look now but here comes Blake Corum and an increased snap share for the Rams in recent weeks. However there's real noise in the numbers as his workload is inflated given the positive game state and lopsided contests we've seen. I expect him to spell Kyren Williams this week for stretches but when push comes to shove it's Williams' backfield. That's even before we factor in one of the league's best run defenses and it's the perfect opportunity to sell high on the Rams RB2

The Jags were bad last week; 26-0 4th quarter against them not withstanding the team struggled to get anything going offensively against the tenacious Texans front. The Chargers defense isn't cut from the same cloth and I fully expect their leaky run defense to be a problem against this Jags attack. Also keep in mind before last week's results this number was 1.5 throughout the market so we'll buy the dog on the dip at a full field goal tag.

Treyveon Henderson is an explosive speed merchant and last week we saw that burst on full display when he got to the 2nd level against the Bucs. His big play potential can't be denied but Mike Vrabel doesn't always see him as a heavy volume option in the backfield. This is a short week against a bad run defense; there will be opportunities for other backs to get touches as well. Henderson might have a few big carries but he'll need to do it with a lesser workload than odds makers believe.

Green Bay was embarrassed last time out; losing outright to the Panthers as a double digit favorite. These same Eagles they're playing tonight ended their season last year as well so there are few motivating factors aligning with the home team. Yes, GB is dealing with cluster injuries at the WR position and are not the model of healthy but in my opinion that's more than reflected in the current price. Philly continues to get support in the market and with the price dipping to a PK I'm going to buy low on the more desperate side and expect Matt Lafleur to raise his game in the coaching box as well given what's at stake.

Jacksonville addressed their inconsistency at WR this trade deadline acquiring disgruntled Las Vegas Raider Jakobi Meyers. However the bigger reason I want to go under on Parker Washington is the absence of Brian Thomas Jr. BTJ has put an underwhelming season together but still draws the top corner match-up every week. Given his absence today that's now on Washington who should find it tough sledding against Houston's pass defense. We'll sell stock at the top of the market here with the Jags new WR1.

This is a fascinating game as the Texans essentially see their season hanging in the balance and are forced to turn to Davis Mills in relief. The one constant for Houston this year has been their elite defense and that should continue today against a remade receiver room for the Jags. Houston's defense has been outstanding at home surrendering 20 points just once to the Bucs and that snuck over on the final drive. Look for defense to dominate here today and we'll fade the Trevor Lawrence explosion

Jake Ferguson is a possession monster; this guy eats targets and earns his paychecks picking up the short yardage. One thing he doesn't do is stretch the field and I think that trend continues tonight against this Cardinals defense. Ferguson's average depth of target is under 5 yards and his average yards per reception is shy of 7 yards. He can exceed both of those but if Zona sticks to the gameplan I see a scenario where he fails to go over his longest catch yardage tonight.

High leverage games like this means a team will typically empty the playbook. For Buffalo that has meant Josh Allen's legs become a key component of the offense and I expect nothing different this week vs KC. Going to carries route over yards means every short yardage situation helps our cause and the potential for knees late in the game. There's a good chance Allen's legs get a full 4th quarter workout against this KC D on Sunday

While the Broncos offense has been white hot the last five quarters we can't help but ask does it really matter? Denver shredded the Giants in the 4th quarter once cluster injuries mounted in the secondary and last week against Dallas they did what everyone with a 1st team offense does to the Cowboys. Houston won't be a pushover at home and has the kind of stingy defensive backfield to make life miserable for Bo Nix throwing into zone. Meanwhile the Broncos defense was dealt a major blow losing Surtain so while the pass rush should be fine coverage on the back end gets downgraded. I expect Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and Dalton Schultz all to be a go here so the ML is cheap