Ricky Pearsall came into the year expected to be the top pass catching option for this team in the receiving room; he's been anything but amid a season marred with injuries and absences. This is the match-up after the bye to get a primary weapon down the stretch and really expect Kyle Shanahan to force feed him today. Not going to over analyze this aspect instead looking to buy a bargain basement price tag on him.

Offensive line injuries aplenty for both of these teams; two positional groups that appeared to be a strength when they met way back in Week 1 this season. Kansas City finds themselves backed into a corner with no margin for error but that's not a reason for a bet...what is will be their defense. Last week KC dominated the Texans in the 2nd half until an ill timed 4th down that was their undoing. Chargers played well in a win vs the Eagles but it was the turnovers that gave them a path, not the offense. Short week, bitter cold I might be stubborn but feel there's a defined path for KC to move the ball and get the rare win by margin against LAC.

Let's get the good out of the way for the Browns defense; they have allowed the 14th-lowest explosive run rate, lowest rushing success rate, and had an elite run stuff rate over the last few weeks. That however wasn't the case last week against Tony Pollard and may not be the case Sunday with cluster injuries along the DL. A number of key contributors along that DL remain game time decisions and even if they go the cold does them no favors. Kyle Monangai is a no frills running back; he runs hard and powerful which bodes well for frigid days. The Bears OL can win the trenches and create a path for the guy on paper that's listed as RB2 w/ RB1 traits

We've seen a barrage of dog and over money for tonight's game between the Eagles and Chargers...I don't buy some of it. Justin Herbert will go but he's playing with a padded glove on a surgically repaired hand meaning he'll take the majority, if not all, his snaps from the gun. This may not sound like a big deal but it neutralizes play action from the Chargers attack. Meanwhile on the other side the Chargers love to play 2 high and force their opponents to be methodical...that plays well for a slow start. I know people see the names and want to anticipate points but I'll sell the perception to go under early on MNF.

There's no way to sugarcoat what we've seen from the Vikings offensively the last few weeks; it's been dreadful. However look at the recent schedule of opponents since their bye week: Eagles, @ Chargers, @ Lions, Ravens, Bears, @ Packers, @ Seahawks...there's no cupcake there. Here comes a Commanders team that gets their starting QB back but doesn't offer a defense anywhere close to this list (ok maybe the Bears). I'm buying the Vikings at the bottom of the market given their 1-6 ATS run now that the line has flipped with Jayden Daniels status. Nothing fun about backing JJ McCarthy these days yet every team has its buy point and this is mine for KOC.

I'll simplify the handicap; steady rains throughout the game and they're supposed to intensify throughout the 1st half. These are two teams that have questions in their secondaries that might be minimized given the conditions. Both of these teams are more than capable against the run and given the wettest conditions of the day we'll try to get in and out quickly. If you did have access to a 23 I'd make this a full position

Isaac TeSlaa was the talk of the combine with his rare combination of speed and athleticism. Through a limited workload this season he's been targeted in the red zone given his unique skill set. However it's a yardage total tonight I just can't buy as oddsmakers are slotting him as the #2 pass catching option for the Lions. On thanksgiving he had an 83.9% route share, 35 receiving yards, a 7.4% target share, and a 12.5% first-read. Let's see how things go but he's a fade candidate for me as a high volume option.

I liked what I saw last week from Cam Ward and the Titans offense against one of the league's best defenses. There was purpose and more importantly a semblance of balance that should pay dividends this week. Jacksonville finds themselves on the road again this week after a hard fought OT win with a game against division leading Indianapolis looming. Look betting the Titans is rarely fun but if they can stop the run and turn the Jags into a 1 dimensional outfit the home dog is very live in Nashville.

Look, this season hasn't gone the way that Chubba Hubbard expected dealing with injury and then losing his job to Rico Dowdle. However we're starting to see some tread on Dowdle's tires and there appears to be a path for Hubbard to get back in the mix. Over his last 5 games he's had a rushing floor of 14 yards and being given touches to spell RB1. If that trend continues today I think he's got an excellent chance to get to 20+ so it's worth a small bet in Santa Clara

Don't look now but the Eagles defense has held two good offenses in check the last two weeks limiting the Packers to 10 points and the Lions to just 9. However there's noise in those figures when you consider the game at Lambeau was played in frigid conditions and last Sunday they faced the Lions in gale force winds. In steps a Cowboys offense playing at elite level and they'll challenge not only the Eagles stop unit but an offense that's struggled to find consistency. I know it's not the best of the number but there's still a bet to made here with Dallas at home catching the 3.

I don't see Mason Rudolph as a downgrade from Aaron Rodgers at this point in their respective careers. The Bears have lived a charmed life so far and the schedule is about to get a lot more difficult for them going forward (hopefully starting this week). Add in a cluster injury situation at LB for Chicago and asking the Bears to win a game by more than a field goal feels like a tight spot. We'll take the dog and hope Mason has success against this Bears' stop unit

We know CJ Stroud is out against the Titans; we don't know if CJ Stroud will be back on a short week against Buffalo. The Bills are about to play in a weather game against the Bucs that will impact offensive perception on a short week. If Stroud does clear protocol and play vs the Bills we have a good bet...if he isn't able to go and misses his third straight game we have a great bet. Jump on this lookahead early as I expect the total re-opens in the 42 range

Don't look now but here comes Blake Corum and an increased snap share for the Rams in recent weeks. However there's real noise in the numbers as his workload is inflated given the positive game state and lopsided contests we've seen. I expect him to spell Kyren Williams this week for stretches but when push comes to shove it's Williams' backfield. That's even before we factor in one of the league's best run defenses and it's the perfect opportunity to sell high on the Rams RB2

The Jags were bad last week; 26-0 4th quarter against them not withstanding the team struggled to get anything going offensively against the tenacious Texans front. The Chargers defense isn't cut from the same cloth and I fully expect their leaky run defense to be a problem against this Jags attack. Also keep in mind before last week's results this number was 1.5 throughout the market so we'll buy the dog on the dip at a full field goal tag.

Treyveon Henderson is an explosive speed merchant and last week we saw that burst on full display when he got to the 2nd level against the Bucs. His big play potential can't be denied but Mike Vrabel doesn't always see him as a heavy volume option in the backfield. This is a short week against a bad run defense; there will be opportunities for other backs to get touches as well. Henderson might have a few big carries but he'll need to do it with a lesser workload than odds makers believe.