Todd's Picks (1 Live)
Patriots run defense was outstanding to start the season; it wasn't great as the year progressed. I won't sugar coat the angle here that has as much to do with Omarion Hampton being limited as it does Vidal's upside. This price is short for a guy who could emerge in the game as RB1 so we'll get ahead of it
Give me the Chargers + the points here as I think they win this game outright. Los Angeles has been plagued all season long by an offensive line that looks more like a turnstile than anything else but fortunately for them the Patriots don't offer a Texans or Seahawks style pass rush. New England for me is an average coverage unit past Christian Gonzalez meaning Herbert should have opportunities to spread it around the yard. Defensively Jesse Minter needs to limit the explosives from the Pats attack and I think he can do that against a playoff debutante in Drake Maye. LA has been synonymous with playoff failures in the past; that all changes on SNF.
Both of these offenses are more than capable but will they find big plays today? I don't see it with major OL concerns on each side as Lane Johnson is officially inactive for the Eagles and Trent Williams potentially compromised in his return to action. The Eagles defense grades out as a top 3 stop unit for me and they'll challenge SF at every turn. Meanwhile the 49ers stop unit is extremely banged up but matches up against a run first Eagles attack. It's not the best of the number by any stretch however it's still worth a partial position for us today.
The Green Packers were legitimate Superbowl contenders earlier this season but those dreams have been dashed without Micah Parsons anchoring their pass rush. However this provides a perfect buy low opportunity on a Packers side that's dealt with a number of health concerns down the stretch. Guess what? They're healthier in this game along their OL and at the skill position spots. It's actually a below average Bears defense dealing with cluster injuries in the back end that could pose problems. Look you don't show massive quantitative edges this time of year but for me the match-up is impossible to avoid where GB should be able to do what they want when they want offensively. I'll back the pack at a cheap ML price
The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs around Halloween (so it feels like) but don't tell them that. They continue to fight every single week under rookie QB Tyler Shough covering numbers at a high pace exceeding oddsmaker expectations. I think we see a similar effort on Sunday against a divisional rival that beat them in their building. The Falcons played their best game of the season on Monday and being asked to replicate that on a short week covering by margin is a tall ask. Give us the hook in a game the Saints win outright on the field.
Buffalo has been outstanding at home not just this year but the past few seasons with Josh Allen. One catch? The Eagles are the better team right now and there's a non-zero chance Josh Allen is limited Sunday with a foot injury. Even if Allen is a full-go I don't anticipate this game getting to a flat 3 so we'll bite now on the dog and see if the injury report works in our favor this week for a game I think the Eagles win outright.
Playing the Browns here on an inflated price tag for a Steelers team in "must win" mode. Browns OL is healthier than it's been and this will be their proverbial superbowl to play spoiler. I won't bore you with X's and O's since this is a numbers play for me that came into range after the Ravens upset of the Packers on Saturday night.
I'm taking the leap here...I'm willing to back old man Rivers in a spot where he's facing a significant defensive downgrade compared to last week's debut. The 49ers have been vulnerable against the run and struggle to get pressure; a perfect recipe for a Colts team looking to possess the football and move methodically. While the other side of the ball does concern me given cluster injuries in the Colts' secondary this is just too big a number in what should be a strong homefield advantage for Indy. Don't be surprised if the Colts have a chance to win this outright late.
We're at the point where I believe Lamar Jackson's health is trending up and the betting market is still pricing his legs like he's severely compromised. Combine that with the amount of man coverage we'll likely see from the Patriots and a high leverage game. I'm going to buy the dip for a small position that we see a more explosive version of #8 than we've seen the last few weeks
The Ravens have been an enigma wrapped in a riddle all season long. Do we attribute the whitewashing of the Bengals last week to them breaking our or was that more Cincy related? Only one way to find out as we'll lay the FG here at an expensive 3. New England is very banged up on the defensive side and that could be problematic if the Ravens offense trends up here. Mike Vrabel is always scary to fade as a dog and because of that respect this position is only a partial for me where I show value on the dog at the field goal price tag
The Chargers have admittedly been my blind spot for stretches; the defense is overrated and the offense as currently constructed doesn't grade out nearly as well as perception. So I'm doing it again and fading them on the ML against one of the league's top 5 offenses at home. Dallas was moribound offensively last week vs Minnesota and I expect them to be much better here. Yes, they've been eliminated from the playoffs and narrative wise that never helps but I show a major edge with their O vs the Chargers D and a wash on the other side. Give me the Boys in a bounceback against the road weary Bolts
Ricky Pearsall came into the year expected to be the top pass catching option for this team in the receiving room; he's been anything but amid a season marred with injuries and absences. This is the match-up after the bye to get a primary weapon down the stretch and really expect Kyle Shanahan to force feed him today. Not going to over analyze this aspect instead looking to buy a bargain basement price tag on him.
Offensive line injuries aplenty for both of these teams; two positional groups that appeared to be a strength when they met way back in Week 1 this season. Kansas City finds themselves backed into a corner with no margin for error but that's not a reason for a bet...what is will be their defense. Last week KC dominated the Texans in the 2nd half until an ill timed 4th down that was their undoing. Chargers played well in a win vs the Eagles but it was the turnovers that gave them a path, not the offense. Short week, bitter cold I might be stubborn but feel there's a defined path for KC to move the ball and get the rare win by margin against LAC.
Let's get the good out of the way for the Browns defense; they have allowed the 14th-lowest explosive run rate, lowest rushing success rate, and had an elite run stuff rate over the last few weeks. That however wasn't the case last week against Tony Pollard and may not be the case Sunday with cluster injuries along the DL. A number of key contributors along that DL remain game time decisions and even if they go the cold does them no favors. Kyle Monangai is a no frills running back; he runs hard and powerful which bodes well for frigid days. The Bears OL can win the trenches and create a path for the guy on paper that's listed as RB2 w/ RB1 traits