I didn't expect the opportunity to bet Kenneth Walker rushing yards under a total priced in the high 70's but here we are. New England's run defense is damn stout with the return of Milton Williams and I don't expect that to change in two weeks. Kenneth Walker is being asked to take on a bigger workload in the absence of Zach Charbonnet however we saw his effectiveness wane against the Rams as his touches increased, Walker is a dynamic playmaker and he'll be leaned into for sure although it might be more as a receiver than runner vs this Pats defense.

George Holani was activated off IR before the NFC championship and saw himself firmly entrenched as RB2 behind Kenneth Walker. Holani's biggest upside came in passing situations where he ran 14 routes in the game compared to Walker's 15 and served as the primary choice in the 2 minute drill. Holani's pass protection skills are better than Walker's and should give him plenty of 3rd down reps in the game to leak out against the Pats pass defense for a few grabs. This number has run a bit but there's still some upside at current price in the big game

I'm not going to sit here and come at you with a major math model or say there's a huge match-up edge that's going to be exploited in this spot knowing Henderson's pass game usage has been next to non-existent this postseason. Put simply we're buying the dip here as a value bet at this current price. I expect the Pats to get a gamebreaker at least 1 touch in the passing game. Yards has been bet up to a point where it's out of range for me however receptions still offers upside despite a price that might scare some folks away.

This handicap for me is about where Diggs adds value in a game like this; as a chain mover operating at 8-10 yards. His days of being a run after the catch guy aren't there and New England has other threats in Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins that are used to stretch the field vertically. Diggs has value and plays a certain role in a game like this but I don't see it as him catching explosives in the passing game.

You rarely find a massive edge picking a winner in the biggest game of the NFL season and this year is no different. That being said I still think the Pats offer some upside here at 4.5 or better at a reduced price tag so I'll jump into that end of the pool. New England's offense hasn't been great this postseason but they've also faced elite defenses in inclement weather. I believe the coaching experience on the Pats sideline gives their O a path to success today. Defensively I'll also make the case that the Pats stop unit is peaking at the exact right time. Small bet, nothing crazy on the dog in SB60

I've gone back and forth on this game all week and finally decided to make a small value bet on the dog. I'm much closer to 3 on this game than 4.5 but I won't sugarcoat it; there's a wide range of outcomes. New England has played two very good defenses this postseason and navigated through each test. Now they face a different test on the road albeit against an overrated Broncos D. What pushed me over the edge here is the Broncos OL becoming a significant upgrade for the Pats D compared to what they faced vs LAC and Houston. Small value bet for me at the current price

Defense will rule the day in Foxboro come Sunday afternoon and we're going to bank on both teams leaning into their stop units in a game of this magnitude. Both head coaches lean into their defensive DNA to run the rock and I think that continues here behind two stout stop units. Houston has been great generating pressure without blitzing and will need to protect against the explosive and Maye's legs. Meanwhile for the Texans it appears the passing attack is going to be down their alpha in Nico Collins which poses a big problem with generating chunk yardage. Lets get a fast moving run heavy 1st half in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon.

RJ Harvey can be a bell cow back but will he be one today? I'm not so sure that Harvey gets all the touches running the football knowing how dynamic he can be as a receiver as well. Sean Payton loves to get creative when he has extra time to prepare and all of us should fully expect a few wrinkles in the Broncos plan of attack today

Patriots run defense was outstanding to start the season; it wasn't great as the year progressed. I won't sugar coat the angle here that has as much to do with Omarion Hampton being limited as it does Vidal's upside. This price is short for a guy who could emerge in the game as RB1 so we'll get ahead of it

Give me the Chargers + the points here as I think they win this game outright. Los Angeles has been plagued all season long by an offensive line that looks more like a turnstile than anything else but fortunately for them the Patriots don't offer a Texans or Seahawks style pass rush. New England for me is an average coverage unit past Christian Gonzalez meaning Herbert should have opportunities to spread it around the yard. Defensively Jesse Minter needs to limit the explosives from the Pats attack and I think he can do that against a playoff debutante in Drake Maye. LA has been synonymous with playoff failures in the past; that all changes on SNF.

Both of these offenses are more than capable but will they find big plays today? I don't see it with major OL concerns on each side as Lane Johnson is officially inactive for the Eagles and Trent Williams potentially compromised in his return to action. The Eagles defense grades out as a top 3 stop unit for me and they'll challenge SF at every turn. Meanwhile the 49ers stop unit is extremely banged up but matches up against a run first Eagles attack. It's not the best of the number by any stretch however it's still worth a partial position for us today.

The Green Packers were legitimate Superbowl contenders earlier this season but those dreams have been dashed without Micah Parsons anchoring their pass rush. However this provides a perfect buy low opportunity on a Packers side that's dealt with a number of health concerns down the stretch. Guess what? They're healthier in this game along their OL and at the skill position spots. It's actually a below average Bears defense dealing with cluster injuries in the back end that could pose problems. Look you don't show massive quantitative edges this time of year but for me the match-up is impossible to avoid where GB should be able to do what they want when they want offensively. I'll back the pack at a cheap ML price

The Saints were eliminated from the playoffs around Halloween (so it feels like) but don't tell them that. They continue to fight every single week under rookie QB Tyler Shough covering numbers at a high pace exceeding oddsmaker expectations. I think we see a similar effort on Sunday against a divisional rival that beat them in their building. The Falcons played their best game of the season on Monday and being asked to replicate that on a short week covering by margin is a tall ask. Give us the hook in a game the Saints win outright on the field.

Buffalo has been outstanding at home not just this year but the past few seasons with Josh Allen. One catch? The Eagles are the better team right now and there's a non-zero chance Josh Allen is limited Sunday with a foot injury. Even if Allen is a full-go I don't anticipate this game getting to a flat 3 so we'll bite now on the dog and see if the injury report works in our favor this week for a game I think the Eagles win outright.

Playing the Browns here on an inflated price tag for a Steelers team in "must win" mode. Browns OL is healthier than it's been and this will be their proverbial superbowl to play spoiler. I won't bore you with X's and O's since this is a numbers play for me that came into range after the Ravens upset of the Packers on Saturday night.