Jacob Gibbs

DFS Guru

Jacob Gibbs is a data-driven Daily Fantasy Sports specialist who's never had a losing season. Previously an analyst at numberFire, Jacob got his start in NBA DFS, turning a $25 deposit into nearly $3,000. He excels in NFL, MLB and the WNBA too, cashing around 70 percent of the time in cash games and nearly 60 percent of the time in tournaments. Jacob also develops proprietary rankings and projections for NFL and NBA season-long and dynasty leagues. For Jacob Gibbs media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.

5-2 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS | +290

GET ACCESS TO

ALL PICKS FROM JACOB & THE REST OF OUR EXPERTS

Jacob's
Picks

Kansas City -5 KC -5

Kansas City 27 @ Denver 23
10/02
KC 27 @ DEN 23
10/02
LOSS
Thu 9/27

This is about the easiest pick on the board. Opposing defenses have had no answer for the Chiefs, and Mahomes has already proven that he can win in tough road environments (PIT in Week 2). Denver's defense has name-brand value, but outside of stuffing the run, it hasn't been all that great in 2018. The Broncos are PFF's 27th-graded coverage unit, and they have no answer for Travis Kelce over the middle. Their defense was picked apart by Joe Flacco last week, and their two wins both were within three points and came at home against the lowly Raiders and Seahawks. Kansas City cruises to victory here.

5-2 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS | +290

Cincinnati +5 CIN +5

Cincinnati 37 @ Atlanta 36
9/30
CIN 37 @ ATL 36
9/30
WIN
Thu 9/27

This line really stands out to me. If we're assuming a three-point cushion for home field advantage, then that means Vegas believes Atlanta is two points better than Cincy, which is tough to agree with at the moment. The Falcons head into this one without their starting left guard, both of their starting safeties, and their starting middle linebacker. They also are unlikely to be without starting RB Devonta Freeman. Even if healthy, they do not match up well with this physical Cincinnati team. Atlanta's offensive line ranks 26th in PFF's pass blocking efficiency and faces a Bengals pass rush that grades out as the NFL's seventh-strongest. That's not good news for Matt Ryan, who ranks third in passer rating when throwing from a clean pocket, but just 20th when under pressure. Don't be surprised if Cincy takes this one outright.

5-2 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS | +290

Cleveland +125 CLE +125

Cleveland 42 @ Oakland 45
9/30
CLE 42 @ OAK 45
9/30
LOSS
Thu 9/27

Like last week, it feels wrong to pick the Browns to pick up a win in this spot, but they are just so much more talented than this Raiders squad. They lead the league in turnover differential, and there's a real case to be made that their defense has been the best in the NFL. So far, Cleveland's opponents have averaged 19.7 points against them, but 34.8 against all other opponents. On offense, they should have no problem moving the ball against a Raiders defense that PFF has graded 30th in pass rush, 28th in coverage, and 23rd against the run. If you're a more risk averse player, take the Browns to cover the spread. I want the bigger return and am confident Cleveland takes this one outright.

5-2 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS | +290

Miami -3 MIA -3

Oakland 20 @ Miami 28
9/23
OAK 20 @ MIA 28
9/23
WIN
Thu 9/20

I don't have much faith in this Miami team's success over a larger sample, but it does match up quite well with Oakland. This is not the same defense that we saw get torched repeatedly in 2017. First-round pick Minkah Fitzpatrick has rejuvenated this secondary, and former second-rounder Xavien Howard has held opposing passers to a 28.2 passer rating when throwing his direction (5th-best in the NFL). On offense, Miami should have no problem moving the ball against an Oakland pass rush that ranks 32nd in pressure percentage. Ryan Tannehill's last full season saw him post the NFL's fourth-best passer rating and a 16-to-2 TD:INT ratio when throwing from a clean pocket. Miami easily takes this one.

5-2 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS | +290

OVER 56 OVER 56

San Francisco 27 @ Kansas City 38
9/23
SF 27 @ KC 38
9/23
WIN
Thu 9/20

Kansas City's combination of horrendous defense and efficient offense has been a perfect recipe for shootouts, as their games have averaged a combined 72.5 points. That is with the Chargers dropping two open touchdowns in week 1! KC grades as PFF's worst coverage and tackling team so far, and the pass rush has been invisible. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 677 passing yards out of clean pockets against KC, which is the most in the NFL by over 100 yards. That's great news for Jimmy G and company, as Garoppolo's passer rating climbed from 63.3 (25th in the NFL) when under pressure in 2017 to 110.1 (6th) when kept clean. With little pressure coming from KC's defense, Garoppolo should have no problem picking them apart. Pound that OVER.

5-2 IN LAST 7 NFL PICKS | +290

LOAD MORE PICKS