Immanuel Quickley (foot) remains out for the Raptors. Scottie Barnes is an excellent passer and has been tasked with more play-making responsibilities with Quickley out. In each of the last six games without him, Barnes posted at least 10 assists. In four of the games, he dished out at least 12 dimes. The Grizzlies allow the sixth-most assists per game in the league, leaving Barnes in a favorable position to hit this over.
Jalen Brunson has been removed from the injury report after sitting out the second game of a back-to-back set Wednesday. Prior to that absence, he had scored at least 26 points in seven of his last 10 games. This game will be played in New York, where the star guard averages 27.3 points per game. It’s also a great matchup against the Bulls, who play at the third-fastest pace. The last time he faced them in New York, Brunson scored 31 points. There is blowout potential here, but I still think Brunson can score at least 26 points.
Stephon Castle produced 15 points and 11 assists against the Warriors on Wednesday. Despite this being the second game of a back-to-back set, Castle should play his normal allotment of minutes with the Spurs trying to catch the Thunder for the top seed in the West. I’m surprised this line has been set so low, given that Castle has combined for at least 23 points and assists in 10 of his last 11 games. One of those games was against the Clippers when he had 23 points and eight assists. I’ll bite and take the over on this combined prop.
After being limited in his first couple of games back from injury, Darius Garland has been locked in offensively. Over his last 12 games, he has shot 50.5% from the field and 51.5% from behind the arc. During that stretch, he scored at least 20 points in a game nine times. That included a matchup with the Spurs in which he had 25 points over 32 minutes. Both of these teams are jockeying for playoff positioning, so in what I think will be a competitive matchup, I like Garland to hit this over.
With the Jazz tanking, Cody Williams has averaged 33 minutes over his last nine games. In seven of those games, he scored at least 15 points. In five of them, he scored at least 20 points. That included a 24-point performance against the Nuggets just last week. The Jazz play at the second-fastest pace in the league and the Nuggets rank 21st in defensive rating. I expect Williams to play at least 30 minutes again, putting him in a favorable position to reach this over.
Despite being moved back to the bench, Reed Sheppard made four three-pointers over 28 minutes against the Knicks on Tuesday. The game was played in Houston, which is important to note. For the season, Sheppard has shot 42.0% from behind the arc at home. Not only is he playing at home again, but this is a great matchup for him to stay hot because the Bucks allow the third-highest three-point shooting percentage in the league. When he played them in Milwaukee earlier in the season, Sheppard made four threes. I like him to make at least three of them in this rematch.
Luka Doncic was suspended for Monday’s game against the Wizards after receiving his 16th technical foul of the season. Before the suspension, he averaged 39.7 points over his previous 12 games. He averaged a whopping 27.3 shot attempts and 9.6 free throw attempts during that span. The Cavaliers have struggled on the defensive end since acquiring James Harden, including ranking 20th in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games. This is a big number, but I still like the over.
Amen Thompson has averaged 9.8 rebounds over his last nine games. During that span, he grabbed at least eight rebounds seven times. In one of the games that he didn’t, he just missed with seven boards. A key to his gaudy rebounding stats is that he played 39 minutes a night during that span. The last time he faced the Knicks, he grabbed 10 rebounds over 40 minutes. With the expectation that he plays a lot again Tuesday, the over is the way to go here.
Tre Jones continues to start for the Bulls down the stretch. Over the last 14 games, he has averaged 16.8 points and 5.1 assists. With regards to this prop, he combined for at least 19 points and assists in 11 of those games. That includes reaching that threshold in difficult matchups against the Thunder, Rockets, Clippers and Suns. When these teams played each other in November, Jones finished with 20 points and seven assists. This line has been set too low, so give me the over.
The Spurs have a great matchup against the Bulls, who play at the third-fastest pace and have the eighth-worst defensive rating in the league. Along the way, they have given up the third-most assists per game. Stephon Castle already comes into this matchup playing well, averaging 18.7 points and 8.4 assists over his last nine games. Another stat I like is that he is shooting 50.2% from the field at home, versus 44.6% on the road. It’s going to be difficult for the Bulls to slow him down.
After missing 10 straight games with a finger injury, Tyrese Maxey returned Saturday against the Hornets. He wasn’t eased back into action, logging 43 minutes. He scored 26 points, which is impressive because the Hornets have the sixth-best defensive rating in the league over their last 10 games. Over their last 10 games, the Heat rank 23rd in defensive rating. The Heat have also played at the fastest pace in the league for the season. In two previous games against them, Maxey scored 27 and 28 points. This is an important game for both teams for playoff seeding, so I think Maxey plays a ton and hits this over.
Nikola Jokic averaged 13.3 assists over his last 11 games. He dished out at least 11 assists in nine of those 11 games. The Nuggets are finally healthy, so with Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson back in the fold, Jokic has a lot of excellent finishers around him. The Warriors rank 19th in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games, so I like Jokic’s chances of hitting this over.
The Rockets recently benched Tari Eason, moving Reed Sheppard into the starting lineup. Over the last five games since that move was made, Sheppard combined for at least eight rebounds and assists each time. During the stretch, he averaged 4.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists. The last time he faced the Pelicans, he had five rebounds and three assists off the bench. Look for him to be productive in both departments again.
In a difficult matchup versus the Thunder on Friday, Josh Giddey emerged with seven rebounds and 11 assists. He has been excelling in both departments, averaging 9.3 rebounds and 11.8 assists over his last 12 games. That included a battle with the Grizzlies in which he recorded 15 rebounds and 13 assists. The Grizzlies give up the fifth-most rebounds per game and the ninth-most assists per game in the league, so look for Giddey to also shine in their rematch.
Daniss Jenkins has started five straight games with Cade Cunningham (chest) out. After scorning nine points on 3-for-16 shooting the first game, he has scored at least 19 points in four straight. During that five-game stretch, he averaged 38 minutes,14.2 shot attempts and 4.4 free throw attempts per game. The Timberwolves will be without three of their best perimeter defenders in Anthony Edwards (knee), Jaden McDaniels (knee) and Ayo Dosunmu (calf), which puts Jenkins in a favorable position to hit this over.