Zack's Picks (2 Live)
Zack's Past Picks
Typically one does not see a smaller school that struggled lose their top two players and get better. UC Santa Barbara has quietly been an impressive team to start the season with a 6-1 record. This comes after losing Ajay Mitchell to the NBA, and Yohan Traore who transferred to SMU. Their game tonight against UC San Diego may be the most meaningful conference game on the slate to a team. The Gauchos went 0-2 to UC San Diego a season ago, and will showcase their improved play tonight. Take UC Santa Barbara.
With all the Detroit Lions injuries we see an abnormal point spread offering on the Detroit Lions. The covering machines are 9-3 ATS on the season, and an issue for Jordan Love has been his turnover issues against the Lions. He had three fumbles in their first matchup, as well as a pick six. Over their last two matchups he has three interceptions and four fumbles. Additionally, there is spread value on the Lions side based on the market flocking to the Packers stout 19-2 December record under Matt LeFleur since 2019.
There are teams that begin their non-conference play with a deceptive record. Incarnate Word is one of those teams at 4-3, as they have several key talent from last year’s team. Last season they were actually 3-2 to begin the season, and went just 3-15 in Southland conference play. This included two blowout losses to Northwestern State of 97-71, and 81-61. Tail the underdogs here with Northwestern State.
Victor Wembanyama will not play in Thursday’s matchup against the Chicago Bulls. This has already showcased as being a big value angle before as the Spurs defeated the Thunder as ten point underdogs. This is also a reduced spread as the Bulls have played just one game since last Friday’s loss to the Boston Celtics. Take the value here on the Spurs finding that one second half run to pull away from the Bulls on the short number.
The Denver Nuggets over their last ten games are only .500 with a 5-5 record. Yet, they picked up a come from behind win on Tuesday against the Golden State Warriors that may finally spark them. They came back from a 7 point deficit with four minutes left, and held the Warriors scoreless under the final two minutes and thirty two seconds. As impressive as the Cavaliers start has been to the season, they are just 4-3 over their last seven games. Grab the points with Denver.
A trend in Wednesday’s big slate of college basketball were slight home favorites cashing amongst the big school matchups. Look for that angle today as Penn State hosts an eighth ranked Purdue team. Purdue’s schedule thus far has featured matchups against non physical teams which provided quality wins over Alabama and Ole Miss. Penn State plays with pat averaging 91 points per game, and have improved defensively. Take the Nittany Lions to pick up the win.
The Orlando Magic continue to cash for bettors as they have won twelve of their last thirteen games. They have benefitted from a friendly schedule as they have been in New York City since last Friday’s first matchup against Brooklyn. That is a big reason why this spread has dropped two points from the opener. Yet, look for the Knicks to play with the heightened energy in an NBA Cup game as they are 3-0 in cup play. Lay it with the Knicks.
Tuesday, the ACC and SEC challenge will begin with one-sided spreads in favor of the SEC. The reason is the ACC has been extremely poor early on in the season against major competition. Boston College may be the home team and have a better record than the Gamecocks but they lost their lone tough matchup to VCU by 25. They are also coming off a five point loss to Dartmouth. Lay it with the road favorite here in South Carolina.
A rest advantage lies tonight with the Chicago Bulls hosting the Brooklyn Nets. The Bulls last played on Friday in a competitive game against the Boston Celtics. Furthermore, an already thin Brooklyn Nets team is playing in a back to back spot after scoring just 92 points yesterday against the Magic. As thin as the Nets are, attacking the paint and shooting overall is going to much easier then what they’ve seen the last two games against the Magic. Grab the points against a soft defensive Bulls team.
Poor weather conditions in Buffalo may actually increase the downgraded prop market value on certain players. Jauan Jennings is a long time San Francisco 49er that abided his time and worked his way up the wide receiver depth chart. He has become the clear top target for Brock Purdy. Expect Purdy to consistently look for Jennings on the short and intermediate route. Take Jennings over yardage.
The LA Rams had one of the worst defensive efforts when it comes to run defense on the season in the NFL. Saquon Barkley had a career game and got what he wanted each carry. Right before their bye week the Saints did the same to the Cleveland Browns with a Taysom Hill package. Yet, expect the Rams to force Derek Carr to have to beat them, who still has been lacking consistent halves of football. Grab the Rams in a bounce back spot.
The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the few teams in the NFL that season could be vastly different. They started off 0-3, including a one point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. They had two games against the Ravens that were winnable as well. Look for the Bengals to come out with expected heightened play post their bye week. As tough as it is for Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh to lose consecutive games, the book is now out on Russ Wilson and the new look Steelers offense. Play the Bengals.
The Kansas City Roos record exhibits a team that is .500 at 4-4. That is misleading as all four victories have come against non division one schools. That gives us a bit of spread value against a Southeast Missouri State team that Kansas City handed their worst defeat last season. The lopsided result was Kansas City by thirty points in a 74-44 victory. Not a blowout here but look for the Roos to handle the close out minutes in the final seven. Take KC.