The Miami Dolphins have won three straight games and one can’t argue their ATS success in the division this season. They covered in both matchups against Buffalo, including an outright win. They got their first win of the season against the Jets on Monday Night Football, and had a break away De’Vone Achane touchdown against the Patriots brought back with a foot out of bounds. Even with that, the Jets have been a bit under valued at home recently. They’ve won each of their last two home games, and the prior two home games their opponent scored just thirteen points. Grab the points here with the Jets.
Earlier in the week I gave the Atlanta Falcons an outside chance to pull off an upset Sunday if Drake London was available. With him out I have opposite views. Yes, Sam Darnold has had issues protecting the football in two out of his last three games, but Atlanta is coming off a bad stinging loss to the New York Jets. It’s the type of loss that takes away the fight on a losing season. Although each of their last four losses have been by six points or less, take Seattle to deliver in a big way.
Before their bye week the LA Chargers Justin Herbert had a woeful game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He threw for just eighty one yards as Quentin Johnston was held without a catch, and Ladd McConkey had just thirteen yards receiving. In their first matchup against the Raiders, Coach Jim Harbaugh valued time of possession and to the sticks offense. Look for Ladd McConkey to be the recipient of that game plan today as he has a couple of catches, mixed with one big gainer.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensively have scored just one offensive touchdown each of the last three games. With Geno Smith it’s no secret that the guys he wants to throw the football to are Tyler Lockett, Brock Bowers, and Tre Tucker. Tucker has had eight and ten targets each of the last two games. Look for Tucker to break his 1-4 stretch in the prop market over the last five games, as he clears his over tonight.
There is not a more rock bottom moment in the NFL season than the Las Vegas Raiders. Losing in the fashion that they have all season long, but the last two weeks have been brutal. A prime time blowout home loss to the Dallas Cowboys, and then as a favorite blown out by the Browns who were starting Sheduer Sanders for the first time on the season. After the firing of Chip Kelly look for enough wrinkles from the offense to stay in the game against a Chargers team that did not show much before their bye week against the Jaguars. Grab the points with the Raiders.
The Atlanta Falcons once were 3-2, have now dropped five straight games. Each of their last three were extremely close calls losing to the Patriots by a point, and consecutive overtime losses. For Kirk Cousins the mentality changes, from a backup spot start to knowing he is going to finish out the season for the Falcons. Both matchups last season against the Saints were decided by a field goal or less. One of Cousins last 300 yard games was at New Orleans last November. Take Atlanta in what should come down to the final drive.
All season long the Philadelphia Eagles have picked and chooses when to unleash Jalen Hurts arm. He broke out in a big way in wins against the Minnesota Vikings and the second matchup against the Giants. When Hurts arm is on display it’s not a surprise that DeVonta Smith has benefitted. After just one catch for eight yards against the Lions, look for Smith to get back on track. Play his over against Dallas.
When it comes to JJ McCarthy the growing pains have been on display virtually every start. It’s caused a severe market dip in props associated around him and the Minnesota Vikings. Jordan Addison in three out of his last four games has failed to surpass 35 yards, and his high during that stretch is 48. As great as the Packers defense is, there is some give on the perimeter. Take Addison to have enough to surpass his yardage prop.
The Philadelphia Eagles we’ve seen the extreme red flags with the offense before just two seasons ago. Last week’s defensive win does not mask the ten points the offense put up, which is the fewest under Jalen Hurts in a game he started and finished. Now we are seeing the lowest home spread offering for the Eagles over the last couple of seasons. Take Detroit as the offense continues to find rhythm with Dan Campbell as play caller.
Jakobi Myers had an instant impact in his first game with Jacksonville last week with forty one yards. It was his best performance since week three, as he went under his yardage prop his last four games with the Raiders. A plus for Myers is he has seen the Chargers defense already this season with the Raiders in week two and had sixty eight receiving yards. Take Myers to clear his yardage prop for a second straight game.
This is the time of year past the mid-season point in the NFL, that limitations offensively start to wear defenses down. Carolina offensively in four straight games has scored sixteen points or less, and are averaging just eleven points over that span. Expect the Falcons to look to get their tight end involved similar to the Saints last week with Juwan Johnson. Pitts clears his yardage prop for just the fourth time this season.
The LA Chargers have four different targets that have gone off this season with Quentin Johnston, Oronde Gadsden, Keenan Allen, and Ladd McConkey. Instead of it detracting value in the prop market I believe it presents value. Quentin Johnston after putting up a donut in Thursday Night football against the Vikings, bounced back with fifty three yards against the Titans. He also had forty four yards on just two catches against the Steelers defense a season ago, a game that Justin Herbert was hurt in. Take Johnston over on his receiver yards.
Consistency has been a fixture to Davante Adams throughout his career. His role this season for the Rams has not been as flashy as years past, but his route tree is a perfect matchup today against the 49ers. San Francisco is beat up, and expect veteran Matthew Stafford to continue to pepper Adams who has five touchdowns over the last two weeks. After four of five games having sixty yards or less, Adams gets it done in the yardage market.
Being traded mid-season as a wide receiver is typically a bypass in the prop markets for me. I’ll make an exception with Rashid Shaheed going from the Saints to the Seahawks. He enters a situation with one of the best deep ball passers in Sam Darnold, and a pass heavy offense that should get him an extra target or two. Additionally, Shaheed began the season facing the Arizona Cardinals, and may have a takeaway or two to give to Darnold. Take Shaheed’s over.
The Chicago Bears had it as easy as they could last week offensively, against the worst defense in football in the Cincinnati Bengals. Now they have won five out of their last six games, boosting their spread value against a Giants team that is 0-5 on the road. In the second half of last week’s loss Jaxson Dart showed some confidence and growth in the passing game down the field. Look for that to be an x-factor Sunday, as the Giants hang around against the Bears.