A season ago, Richmond was one of the teams that faded to end the season as they were 2-12 over their final fourteen games. Today they will face Southern Illinois who has a two day rest advantage and the home court edge over the Spiders. Look for Richmond to overcome the early deficit, and lean on last year’s matchup against the Salukis. The only overtime game they played in was against Southern Illinois, which ended up being a nine point win for Richmond. The Spiders move to 4-0 on the season.

Two teams that had the same identical records a season ago meet tonight as UNC Asheville travels to fast West Georgia. Both schools are winless this season against division one competition with 0-2 records. Slight value on the Bulldogs side, with this being West Georgia’s first home game of the season. A year ago they won their first three home games. UNC Asheville uses a big rotation as no player averages more than twenty seven minutes. The depth wears down and spoils West Georgia’s home opener, grab UNC Asheville.

Texas State may have the strangest conference change by moving to the Pac-12. Today, they will play their first true road game against a UT Rio Grande Valley team that is 2-0 at home. The Vaqueros are one of the few teams in college basketball that did not return any starters from a season ago. In fact, they have just on reserve player from last year’s team and that is Always Wright who plays 13.5 minutes per game. Despite being 2-0, UT Rio Grande Valley is going to take the majority of conference play for their new team to build together. Lay it with Texas State.

In college basketball with so many division one schools, you are going to get small school rivalry matchups. Today there is one with Mercer traveling to Georgia Southern, as both schools are separated by about two hours. Mercer has yet to get a win against a division one school this season, and is in the middle of five straight games on the road. Georgia Southern is known for their strong conference tournament run a season ago in the Sun Belt, and they just played Georgia Tech tight. Grab the value here on a small number with the Mercer Bears.

The MEAC is not a conference you are typically going to see a near pick em offered in non-conference play on the road. South Carolina State gets that favorable number because of their opponent in Chicago State. This may have been set as a favorite for the Bulldogs if Chicago State did not have the rest advantage and home court edge. Still, look for the Bulldogs to continue their turn around after being 0-14 in non conference play a season ago, they begin 3-0. Grab the Bulldogs.

Power conference schools that have an easy laid out schedule, raises a red flag in my eyes ATS-wise. Northwestern has seven home games, and three neutral site games to begin the season. They will not go on the road until December 12th against Michigan. That can lead to a few flat spots, and tonight look for Stony Brook to be hungry for an upset. After a 26 point opening night win against Binghamton, the Wildcats get challenged to a degree tonight. Grab the points with Stony Brook.

A team that was never .500 a season ago has a chance to be 2-0 on the year in Albany. In fact, they did not have a win against a division one school in non-conference play until December 17th in 2025. Expect Manhattan to have some early rust after facing top competition against Kentucky in their first matchup. The better skilled team in Manhattan but the cover goes to Albany.

Typically in a matchup you are not going to get a bigger spread offered with a road favorite, than the outcome a season ago. Yet that is the case as Howard beat Alcorn State by just eight points at home in 2025. With a loss in their first game against against Yale, look for Howard to play with a sense of urgency at the start of tonight’s matchup. They get the win and cover this time against the Braves.

Ohio is a team that has lost each of their last four matchups against Sun Belt teams. They were also a team that started slow with a 1-6 record, and ended the year with four straight losses. Expect the staff and key returning players in Javan Simmons and Jackson Paveletzke to play with a chip on their shoulder in game one. They take down the Jaguars in game one.

Columbia is a team that struggled in Ivy League play a season ago. Overall they had a record of just 5-9. Yet, they were a one loss team in their first ten games a season ago, with that one loss being against UConn. Guard Kenny Nolan did transfer to Michigan, and Ryan Soulis to Northwestern but look for the Lions to jump out to another fast start against the Phoenix. Lay the number.

The Sun Belt and MAC challenge has been one sided as the Sun Belt has not lost the event in it’s three years of existence. These matchups have been competitive and of today’s ten matchups, 9 have spreads of 3.5 points or less. Troy is a team that gained notoriety for taking USC to overtime, and beating San Diego State in non conference play a season ago. Size gave them problems as the season wore on, and that’s a strength of UMass that has size at all skill positions. Grab the points here with the Minutemen.

Through a March Madness run even the top seeds get that one scary matchup. Today, I expect that to be the case for the Arizona Wildcats, who were flawless in their win over Arkansas. Purdue has the size, and four year program players to give the Wildcats their first true test. In the back end of tournament action forty eight hours later, grab Purdue plus the points.

Iowa State is the big question mark heading into tonight with the status of Joshua Jefferson up in the air. Tennessee and Rick Barnes are aiming for their third straight Elite 8 appearance, which has the market on their side. To me though, they are similar to Nebraska that got away with a win in the Sweet 16 against Virginia. This will be a tight game, but grab the Cyclones who have that Gonzaga trait of everyone has been waiting for this program moment.

Blowout wins can shift one’s mindset for a steep line. Alabama took care of business easily with two wins by over 20 points against Hofstra and Texas Tech. Michigan is a different animal and has that ability to turn a tied game into a bettor’s nightmare within three to four game minutes. I’d put their explosive grade higher than anyone left in the tournament. Tail the Wolverines as they advance to the Elite 8.

Houston gets the opportunity to advance to the Elite 8 while playing in front of their own crowd. As rare as that is, when it comes to facing a true contender home court is not as big of an edge. Illinois is also a team that throws four to five waves of scoring bursts in a game. Additionally, the Sweet 16 has given Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars problems each of the past three years. They lost twice, and needed a miracle comeback against Duke last season. Tail Illinois.