Justin Herbert, who broke his non-throwing hand

Four SU wins in a row and receiving 4-plus points? Sounds like a good deal on Houston. The Texans' defense is supreme for points and yards allowed, while Kansas City's offense, though still formidable, no longer intimidates. Unders are 9-3 in Texans' games, which suggests a low-scoring affair. The line has inched up from 3.5 at many books, leaping the significant margin of four points. Stir in weather that should dip into the low 20s, and a moderate score looms that improves the chances of an underdog covering.

Hate to use the ”bingo card” cliche, but did anyone have Chicago on theirs as the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed at this stage of the season? Didn't think so. The offense tops the league in big plays, and it wields the second-ranked rush attack. Fourth best in minutes of possession, it can enhance the chances for a cover by keeping the Packers’ offense shivering on the sideline. Green Bay’s ace run defender, D-tackle Devonte Wyatt, is done for the season. The overrated Packers have spotted seven other foes at least this many points in 2025. They have covered once. Here we have a team with the shiniest record in its conference receiving a touchdown. Go figure.

The Dolphins are a fish out of water in cold weather, having dropped seven in a row SU when the thermometer read 45 or lower at kickoff. Projected high on Sunday: 42 degrees. There are more substantive reasons to side with the Jets. They’ve won three of the last five SU, with setbacks to current top AFC seed New England and perennial bad boy Baltimore. In ATS terms, they are 4-1 in friendly confines this season and 5-1 in the latest half-dozen as underdogs. It would advance the Jets’ cause to pick off their first pass of the season, which would help snap Tua Tagovailoa’s perfect record against them.

Why is a team that last won SU on Oct. 5 laying points? Answer: when its standout QB is back from injury rehab. The announcement of Jayden Daniels' return Friday flipped the favoritism. The difference in the young QBs is vast, with J.J. McCarthy looking nothing like a recent first-round pick. Minnesota has not managed a cover in the four most recent games while getting outscored by 53 points. The Commanders' O-line has protected passers well with five sacks allowed in the last three outings, so Daniels should be afforded time to work his magic.

Wth the focus on ths matchup around the future of Steelers coach Mke Tomlin, the most impactful angle is the struggles of Baltimore's offense with banged-up QB Lamar Jackson. He has been un-Lamar-like the past three games, with no TD passes and five turnovers. Turnovers tend to be cyclical, but it cannot dismissed that the Steelers have induced 22, second most in the league, whle the Ravens are coming off a five-turnover debacle. Shockingly, Baltimore did not complete a single pass of 20-plus yards in November. Tomlin's defense will be focused on containing RB Derrick Henry, who might get extra work. At home, the Ravens are 2-5 ATS. This mega-rivalry game could make it a half-dozen on the losing side.

The Falcons lose a lot, almost always by narrow margins. This spread is larger than narrow, but consider: Seattle has lost just once outright on the road under coach Mike Macdonald deep into his second season. The Seahawks' lone defeat in the last seven tests was by two points to the fellow Super Bowl contender Los Angeles Rams. Their points differential is a whopping plus-133, best in the league. QB Kirk Cousins relies almost entirely in short throws, all but eschewing downfield attempts, and primary target WR Drake London remains sidelined by an injury. Seattle has cashed ATS in three-fourths of its dozen games. The line ticking down from seven is too alluring to pass up.

While Rhode Island squeaked past a four-loss opponent last Saturday in the first round of the FCS playoffs, UC Davis kicked back for some R&R with a bye after navigating its rugged Big Sky schedule. The Aggies own just one SU loss at home as freshman QB Caden Pinnick developed on a fast track in his first college season. The Rams get stuck with a late kckoff -- 10 p.m. (ET) their time -- following a 2,600-mile commute. This spread belongs at a full TD.

Three weeks ago, Virginia trounced Duke in a game the Cavaliers led 31-3 entering the fourth quarter. The win was the ninth over the Blue Devils in the last 10 meetings. UVA stands 8-4 ATS this season. If those numbers aren't persuasive enough, consider that WR Cam Ross and OLT McKale Boley were cleared to play Friday after their status was in doubt. The Cavs' calling card on offense is the ground game, which Duke is ineffective at stopping. Would have preferred a three-point spot given that Vrginia does not score much, but the hook is not a major concern.

Home field matters sometimes in these conference title games. After an overtime loss in Week Two against Group of Five powerhouse North Texas State, Western Michigan took down five straight visitors. Miami's season rescue by QB Thomas Gotskowski after Dequan Finn abruptly quit to prepare for the NFL draft is laudable. Still, this is just Gostkowski's third start -- in a league championship game, no less. He likes to tuck it and run, and the Broncos defense is geared to stop such tactics.

North Texas has been a money-maker for ATS backers, having won 10 games. Why stop now? The Mean Green have piled up a minimum of 52 points in all but one of their last half-dozen games behind in-the-groove QB Drew Mestemaker. The defense ranks sixth in the 14-team AAC. Tulane owns a .500 record ATS, with three consecutive setbacks at home. Though Green Wave coach Jon Sumrall sticks around for the game, he could have one eye on the Kentucky job that he accepted this week.

This spread keeps climbing based largely on the perception that James Madison might pour it on to impress the playoff committee. Yet Troy sports the third stingiest Sun Belt defense based on points allowed. QB Goose Crowder is back in form with two weeks of action after a broken collarbone waylaid him. Coach Bob Chesney remains on duty but surely has been distracted by trying to salvage the small recruiting class at his next gig --UCLA. Conference title game odds do not get bigger than this one, and a cover is more than doable.

What could wind up as the highest total of the NFL season is, well, too high. Dallas' defense has improved dramatically over the past three weeks, and it squares off against an offense missing TE Sam Laporta, (probably) WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and scattered linemen. The Cowboys could take the field without OT Tyler Guyton, idled on Thanksgiving Day, and the Lions' defense is better than widely perceived, ranking 13th in yards allowed. All analysis aside, with a number this huge, the way to go is low.

How unusual to feel confidence in an NFL team when a rookie QB who was not a starter at the dawn of the season returns from an injury hiatus. Jaxson Dart has guided the Giants to both SU victories with a LB mentality that has juiced up his teammates. Without him, New York has stayed inside this number in three consecutive outings. The Patriots are dealing with an injury outbreak. OLT Will Campbell went on injured reserve this week, while OG Jared Wilson is out as well. Several teammates sat out Friday's practice. Going against a new defensive coordinator, New England and its makeshift O-line might see new looks from the Giants' D.

Siding with a sizable favorite that wins narrowly will be nerve-wracking. Of the Broncos’ eight consecuive SU wins, here are the margins in six of them: one, two, three, three, three, four. On the other hand, the Commodores have failed to cover once during their current six-game SU slide. While both teams have regained a modicum of health, Washington QB Jayden Daniels remains idled, while Denver All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II is expected to return after three games out. With the league’s 14-ranked offense, the Broncos should be able to find sufficient points against the No. 31 defense for a cover.