Mike's Past Picks
Customarily, the side with the superior defense, rushing attack and offensive line prevails. K.C. might have the magical QB, but the Eagles require less of Jalen Hurts, allowing him to thrive without as many highlight-reel plays as counterpart Patrick Mahomes compiles. The two-week break is allowing Hurts to recover from various ailments, and RB par excellence Saquon Barkley benefits from a light workload in the NFC Championship game. Underdogs have won six of the last 10 Super Bowls outright while covering in 12 of the last 17. The Chiefs, less talented than in their prior two title years, have cut it close with a dozen one-score wins this season. Their extended good fortune is about to run dry.
Noting the absence of Dajuan Harris Jr. after Tuesday’s overtime escape against UCF, coach Bill Self said Kansas was “just trying to survive.” The Jayhawks have no such concerns here as Harris, who had started 98 in a row, resumes play with a healed ankle. The point guard doles out assists at a rate of six per game. Baylor is solid but tends to fare badly against ranked opponents. Kansas ranks higher than the Bears for points scored and allowed in league games, so being on the receiving end is welcome. Baylor has covered once in its last six outings, with one push.
Frosh sensation Dylan Harper sits this one out, putting Rutgers up against the wall. The projected early NBA draft pick is not a stat stuffer (18.6 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists per game), but his absence puts a heavy load on fellow future pro Ace Bailey. The Scarlet Knights’ third leading scorer averages a mere 7.4. Michigan is on a 7-2 straight-up roll, with one of the setbacks coming in overtime at Minnesota. The Wolverines’ standout big, Vlad Goldin, appears ready to go after dealing with an illness this week.
In its first venture west as an ACC member, slumping Syracuse is saddled with an 11 p.m. (ET) tip-off against rolling Stanford. The Orange are on a 1-3 slide; the Cardinal have taken five of six. A roster rebuilt with transfers took time to gel—a loss at home to Cal Poly in November preceding a perfect record in Palo Alto. Maxime Raynaud is pulling off the feat of leading the league in points (20.5 per game) and rebounds (11.7). The ‘Cuse has not adjusted to the absence of No. 2 scorer/rebounder Donnie Freeman, missing his eighth straight game. Its defense (78.0 points per game allowed) is lacking. Cardinal backers can count on made free throws if Syracuse fouls late. Stanford hits 77.3%.
After a blazing start, Kentucky has hit a rut. Blame injuries in part. Power forward Andrew Carr, who missed Saturday's loss at Vanderbilt, is iffy. Guard Kerr Kriisa has been out awhile. Now two-way player Lamont Butler, a maestro on defense and a 13-point scorer at the other end, will be held out. The candidacy of new boss Mark Pope as coach of the year has faded with four outright losses in the past eight outings. Tennessee pushed top-ranked Auburn to the edge Saturday before losing by a deuce. Flailing Kentucky catches the Volunteers at an inopportune time. The missing pieces have forced the Wildcats to rely on younger players they were not counting on.
The Chiefs' favoritism seems based on the belief that they will draw on their experience in recent playoff excellence to beat Buffalo. Most of the evidence suggest that this K.C. team is inferior to the past two. Eleven of 15 wins this season were secured by one score, and a few appeared a product of luck. It outgained opponents by a paltry eight yards per game. The Bills were much better at running the ball, which is paramount in freezing weather. They stand 12-7 ATS, with the highlight a nine-point win over the Chiefs. As magical as QB Patrick Mahomes can be, Josh Allen is a worthy peer. The Bills have the better team and are receiving points. 'Nuff said.
Jayden Daniels has hurdled this number in five consecutive games, albeit one in overtime. Philly held him to 191 in their first meeting, but the ridiculously gifted rookie slapped the Eagles around with 258 in the sequel. He has attempted 30-plus passes in his last 10 games, not counting the one in which he made a cameo appearance. There is no reason to think the 'Dores will become ground-oriented here. This total is a few yards lower than what other sportsbooks have posted.
Illinois at times resembles a Final Four team. At other times, a Sweet Sixteen team -- in the NIT. The Illini looked like the latter in their latest game, getting overrun by Maryland. Seven-footer Tomislav Ivisic was shelved for it and is sidelined again with an illness. While his 13 ppg will be missed, the greater concern is a repeat of what the Terrapins bigs did -- 52 points, 23 rebounds. Illinois has dropped three of four straight-up. Some seven weeks ago, they fell to these Wildcats in overtime. Good Illini can cover, but they have been mediocre Illini all too often.
Coach Mick Cronin has griped about the long commutes to road games resulting from UCLA joining the far-flung Big Ten. The Bruins have dropped three straight away from home, with none of the margins close. They get a somewhat shorter journey here to face a team with five consecutive straight-up losses. The Huskies have legitimate hopes for an upset. Big man Franck Kepning could return after sitting out 17 games with an injury, while hot-and-cold scorer D.J. Davis is distancing himself from an ankle ailment that has impeded his play. A Friday nighter in the Pacific Northwest against a visitor struggling away from home shapes up as a recipe for a tight finish.
Since coach Jim Larranaga bailed on his team on Boxing Day, Miami has gone 0-6 outright, with the results growing increasingly dire. In their last two losses (to Duke and SMU), the Hurricanes were outscored by 45 and 43 points. The "reward" is an 11 p.m. (ET) tip-off in their first ACC west coast venture. Stanford is 9-1 straight-up at home and is riding high from an upset at N.C. State on Saturday. The Cardinal are no bully but can kick UM when it's down for a double-digit win.
Winless in the SEC under first-year coach John Calipari, Arkansas might stay that way for awhile. Freshman sensation Boogie Fland (15.1 ppg, 5.7 apg, 3.4 rpg) has been scratched for the season. The Razorbacks will be hard-pressed to contain Georgia's own frosh star, big man Asa Newell. With Fland, Arkansas owns a +4 points differential per game, while the Bulldogs' is at +9. UGA is 0-2 straight-up on the road in the league, but its conquerors were ranked Ole Miss and Tennessee. The 'Backs are miles away from the top 25.
Home-field advantage around the league has been diminished, but how can we discount the Bills’ excellence in Buffalo? They are 9-0 this season, with four margins in the 20s and another in the 30s. Yet they are on the receiving end here. One factor in Baltimore’s favoritism is its 35-10 spanking of Buffalo in Week Four when RB Derrick Henry ran wild. Two key Bills LBs who sat out are back, and Buffalo’s defense yielded the 12th fewest yards per game in the regular season despite Baltimore’s banner day. Ravens WR Zay Flowers, who bypassed the wild-card game with an injury, is unlikely to return. While both teams breezed to first-round wins, Buffalo’s came against the rising Broncos whereas Baltimore’s occurred against the sinking Steelers.
The Rams have ridden their defense to the second round of the playoffs. In the past four games that involved the starters, L.A. has allowed a total of 33 points, with no foe reaching double figures. The Eagles' defense has been dominant all season. It has no peer in the total and pass defense categories. No team runs the ball as much as Philly, which often leads to games with fewer-than-usual snaps. This number is right in the middle of the standard totals window, and it seems high with teams whose defenses stand a cut above the offenses.
Kansas City has played 18 postseason games with Patrick Mahomes at QB. In half of those, the Chiefs scored in the 30s (six times), 40s (twice) and 50s (once). Two more resulted in the high 20s, two additional in the mid-20s. As spotty as the offense has been this season, playoff-time K.C. customarily has little trouble scoring. Houston must contribute to an Over. With TB Joe Mixon likely to play after being iffy all week, the Texans are capable of doing their part. K Ka'imi Fairbairn can pitch in; his 39 field goals were fourth most in the regular season.
This spread suggests that UCLA will suddenly find a cure for the ills that have led to a four-game losing streak in which no outcome was close. (The margins: eight, 19, 18 and seven.) Coach Mick Cronin continues to criticize his players, a ploy that has worked before but has shown no signs of moving the needle lately. Iowa has not fared well in limited road games, yet scoring is no issue. The Hawkeyes average 89.5 ppg, tied for most in the nation. The Bruins, 15th in the Big Ten offensively, might not have the shooters to keep up even as the defense has been solid. No team mired in an extended slump should be yielding this many points in a league matchup.