“Preseason” Sean McVay should never be mistaken for “regular season” McVay. The accomplished L.A. coach is 11-16 SU in exhibitions, a stark contrast to his 92-57 ledger in games that count. He even hands off play-calling duties to assistants in the summer. While QB Stetson Bennett has done well in recent exhibitions, he remains without a regular season snap, an indication of his worth. He will share time here with rookie Ty Simpson. Kansas City counters with veteran Justin Fields. Though the Chiefs have not won outright in the preseason since 2024, coach Andy Reid stands 21-22 SU overall in K.C.

This is no ordinary exhibition game. The Bills open their new stadium, which should raise the excitement level well above a normal preseason atmosphere. Buffalo’s Joe Brady would welcome a win to launch his head coaching career and will use QB Josh Allen, and most starters. Carolina counters with its regular QB, Bryce Young, but coach Dave Canales projects starters to be done within the first 20 plays. The Panthers got their W on neutral grounds at the Hall of Fame game and travel for the second straight week. Motivation sits squarely with the home side.

No coach has treated preseason games lately with more gravitas than Sean Payton. After opening 0-2 outright in Denver, his teams have swept seven in a row. Even with the defeats, Payton’s margin of victory in Rocky Mountain is 16 ppg. Much of the success is attributable to veteran backup QB Jarrett Stidham, who is expected to play a full half. Stidham squares off against an injury-riddled Atlanta secondary. Falcons QB Tua Tagovailoa wields experience but is breaking in with a new squad. Undrafted rookie Jack Strand will likely log snaps once Tua and Cooper Rush call it a night. Lay the short number with Denver.

Few QBs will be more motivated this month than Indy’s Anthony Richardson, who must prove his worth to the Colts and the league after requesting a trade. He figures to get plenty of snaps and could slice up a rookie-heavy Patriots defense. New England answers with Tommy DeVito at QB, followed by Behren Morton, a seventh-round pick in this year’s draft. Colts coach Shane Steichen likes to pile up points in the preseason, going 8-1 to the Over.

No preseason game should carry a line this size, especially when the coach of the favorite side is 4-14 SU and ATS during the summer. Lions coach Dan Campbell has pooh-poohed his team’s prospects while noting the number of regulars taking a pass. Counterpart Zac Taylor pledges to send out some starters, notably QB Joe Burrow. But once the game moves to the backups vs. backups phase, the seven-point cushion could easily hold up.

Here’s hoping the Packers grab an early lead with the starters on the field in the first series or two. Their regulars are expected to log more minutes than Pittsburgh. The Steelers plan to devote most of the snaps to QBs Will Howard and Drew Allar. One has not gotten his feet wet in the regular season, while the other is a rookie. Steelers coach Mike McCarthy put little emphasis on winning exhibitions while at the helm in Dallas, going 4-9 SU. Lay the short number with Green Bay.

First-year NFL coaches tend to emphasize winning their preseason opener. Arizona’s Mike LaFleur, knowing the NFL Nation is watching his debut in the Hall of Fame game, will likely deploy regulars more than counterpart Dave Canales. Entering his third season, Canales went 2-1 SU in his debut summer, then 0-3 last year, with the defeats coming by a combined 46 points. As a member of the ultra-competitive NFC South, Carolina faces a multitude of big games down the road, so I don't expect them to worry about a preseason opener. Arizona will start rookie QB Carson Beck, but the Panthers intend to hold starter Bryce Young out, so it's not a huge concern.

For underdog Tulsa to win, it likely will put apply a govenor to its usual quick pace. Dictating tempo against run-'n'-gun Auburn by slowing it down slightly places the Golden Hurricane in the best position to steal an NIT title. The Tigers have landed well under this figure in three of four tournament games, the exception being outmanned Seattle. The overall season stats for the finalists might suggest an Over, but the hunch is that Tulsa hopes to make it easier on the scorekeeper.

Luka Doncic, out. Austin Reaves, out. Marcus Smart, maybe out. Los Angeles will miss 57 ppg from their stars, while the iffy Smart produces nearly 10 ppg. LeBron James, as effective as he is in spurts, cannot carry stripped-down squads anymore. Dallas does not win often but can be competitive. Cooper Flagg is coming off a 51-point outburst, which will give the Lakers' defense another concern on top of their challenges on offense.

West Virginia operated as among the slowest offenses in Division I. Then came Saturday's semifinals, when the Mountaineers' game against Creighton resulted in 157 points -- about 20 above the total. This matchup has generated a similar number even though Oklahoma goes quicker than the median team. Its games average 160, in part because 43 percent of the Sooners' field goal attempts are threes. Their defense can be shoddy, so West Virginia could be in more attack mode than usual. The championship game marks the teams' third appearance in the venus, so there is no unfamiliarity with the rims and shot angles.

While UConn's comeback against Duke was one for the ages, these Huskies are a cut below the versions that won two recent titles. They have been inconsistent on threes and don't get to the foul line often. As a result, UConn is 16-22 ATS, compared to 21-15 for Illinois. The Illini roll out the nation's largest team but, with likely lottery pick Keaton Wagler scoring from all over the floor, need not focus on getting the ball low to the bigs. While their tourney schedule has been relatively soft, they have beaten all challengers by double digits. In a spacious dome where depth perception can be problematic for shooters, the team with more varied scoring options benefits. That's Illinois.

This number has eased up a couple of points, perhaps in light of Creighton's love for the three-pointer. Regardless of the figure, it cannot be ignored that West Viirginia stands 12-22 on Overs. (Creighton is 15-18). West Virginia plays at the fourth slowest pace in Division 1 based on possessions per game and allowed the sixth fewest points (just over 65 ppg). The 159 points scored Thursday was misleading; the Mountaineers' game against Stanford crept into overtime, and regulation produced just 136 points -- essentially the same as this total.

This spread has flipped, with Oklahoma opening at -1.5. Evidently, the betting public compared the teams' opening wins in the Crown and rightfully decided Baylor's was more impressive overall. However, Oklahoma did awaken late to dispose of depleted Colorado in overtime as apparent rust that can plague Crown entrants came into play. Keep in mind that the Sooners closed their season on a 9-3 SU run, quite a contrast to Baylor stumbling home 4-7. The Sooners are slightly better on offense and defense. The original line seems more appropriate than this one.

For two teams whose offenses function patiently, this total came up a tad high. Rutgers ranks 262nd in Division 1 for possessions per game, while Creighton stands 201st. The Bluejays often score a lot, owing to their proclivity for shooting threes, but the accuracy may dip in an unfamiliar arena. Guard Austin Swartz, who averages a fracton under 11 ppg, is an injury scratch. Tariq Francis, the Scarlet Knights' top scorer at just under 17 ppg, is dealing with a recent practice injury and could be slowed. Rutgers is hardly a points machine with him at optimum health.

Auburn arrives at the NIT Final Four after three less-than-dazzling wins at home, none in which the Tigers covered. The margins of victory were six, 11 and six points against lesser lights. Illinois State, by contrast, opened with a 21-point win in friendly confines, then knocked off the ACC's Wake Forest by three and NCAA Tournament-worthy Dayton by six on the road. The Redbirds' offense functions on the slow side; the team's games average 261st in possessions. A relatively slow pace makes the 7.5-point spot especially attractive, even though Auburn will strive to speed things up.