Mike's Picks (3 Live)
The betting public is enamored with Duke, perhaps too much. The Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings. At the same time, the public seemed to sour late in the season on UConn, which has covered in four of the last six. The Devils were rescued Friday by Caleb Foster, who returned almost overnight from foot surgery with a stellar game. He was back in a boot and on a scooter Saturday, and a repeat performance seems unlikely. The Huskies rank ninth for adjusted defense efficieny and have a big body in Tarris Reed Jr. to bang with Duke, the nation's second tallest team. Given that it would be no shocker if UConn wins outright, receiving this many points is welcome.
Illinois' defense has been stifling, with its last two opponents topping out at 55 points. Iowa's offense has been leisurely, with its last three opponents enduring games that had the fewest possessions in their seasons. Those are the primary ingredients for an Under. Iowa sharpshooter Bennett Stirtz has been frigid in the tournament on threes, nailing just six of 28, and the Illini held him to a dozen points and 2-for-8 from afar in their regular season clash. As for Iowa, it paced the Big Ten in turnovers forced, which can limit Illini baskets.
Given Tennessee's No. 11 ranking for adjusted defense efficiency, the points are worth taking. Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson is listed as questionable, which suggests he will be limited even if he plays. Few teams are more physical than the Volunteers. They can impede the smooth Cyclones from scoring. The Vols easily covered in their first two NCAA Tournament outings and enter this matchup with momentum. Points could be hard to come by, which makes the spread appealing.
Auburn has not come close to covering two hefty spreads in the NIT. While this number is lower than the earlier pair, it still flirts with double digits. Nevada has been as impressive as the Tigers with a couple of double-digit wins. Auburn has been hurt by the absence of big man KeShawn Murphy, who opted out of the tourney. The Tigers play substandard defense, and the modest crowds at the two games do not provide the edge to which they are accustomed.
Both teams operate on the slow slide offensively, but that hasn't prevented a decent amount of points scored in their games. Dayton's averaged 144, Illinois State's 143. In the NIT, while the slower-paced Redbirds opened with a 137-point game, it followed with a 153. Meantime, the Flyers' two outings wound up with 144 and 143. The Redbirds piled up 78 points last weekend at Wake Forest, so scoring on the road appears to be no concern.
We must take a deep breath when alloting double digits in a second-tier postseason tournament game. Yet there are several reasons for comfort in doing so. New Mexico has rung up wins of 24 and 25 points in the NIT with sizable, enthusiastic crowds. The Lobos are awarded a third home game, and the atmosphere favors them. The elements could work against St. Joseph's, playing at high elevation in its third straight NIT roadie. The Hawks have spent more than a week out west, far away from home. They spent considerable energy rallying from a deep deficit to nip California on Sunday. New Mexico stands 16-3 straight-up at home, with the majority of wins by 10-plus points. Another one is there for the taking.
It's a rare fourth meeting between teams in the same season, and there is an unmistakeable trend that enlightends this pick. The opener produced 176 points, followed by 158, then 149 in the latest encounter. One factor for the dip is the recent absence of Tulsa's David Green (16 ppg), who left their last matchup with a shoulder injury and has not been seen since. Wichita operates at a moderate pace, which partly explains their allowance of just 70 ppg. Golden Hurricane games have generated 152 (in regulation) and 143 in their NIT outings. The Shockers should be able to deliver another outcome under this figure.
George Washington eked out a one-point win at Utah Valley in its NIT opener Wednesday and has had to kill four days far away from home before playing in the dreaded Pit. New Mexico owns one of the nation's best home-court edge, having gone 15-3 outright there this season, while the Revolutionaries are 4-7 ATS away. The Lobos drew by far the largest crowd of the tourney's opening round at 7K-plus and figure to get heavy support today. They drilled Sam Houston by 24 on Wednesday, ringing up 107 points. Another double-digit win seems attainable.
Iowa State entered the Big Dance as a legit contender to cut down the nets. An injury to the Cyclones' star, Joshua Jefferson, puts a damper on their chances. Jefferson limped out of the opener with an ankle injury and appears unlike to be ready. Kentucky, with its high NIL payroll, survived steep expectations with an overtime escape past Santa Clara, which removes pressure of a possibly early tourney exit. The Wildcats should be more relaxd here. Their stellar three-point defense can cause problems for Iowa State's sharpshooters.
Dayton recoved nicely from its defeat in the A-10 championship game to VCU. The Flyers blasted Bradley in their NIT opener. Their defense has locked in, having last allowed as much as 70 points a dozen games ago. The adjusted defensive efficiency ranking is 32nd in D-1. Credit to UNCW for a road win over Yale to start the NIT, but the Seahawks trailed by 14 points in the second half. Dayton loaded up its pre-conference schedule by playing Cincinnati, BYU, Virginia, Florida State, Marquette and Georgetown. The Seahawks' toughest non-league foe? Probably Kent State. These teams on different levels deserve a larger spread.
UConn's strength is its depth, but the Huskies' deep roster will be comprised in the NCAA Tournament opener. Starter Silas Demery and key reserve Jaylin Stewart will be held out with injuries. Furman might have finished sixth in the Southern Conference before winning the league tourney, yet the Paladins have luxuriated in NCAA upsets. As a No. 13 seed, Furman took down Virginia three years ago. Though the Huskies are a threat to claim another crown, something seems amiss with this squad. It is vulnerable to an ATS defeat.
A moderate points total was probable even before Monday's big news. Now, with Alabama suspending No. 2 scorer Aden Holloway (18 ppg) following his drug-related arrest, this number seems almost unattainable. Hofstra plays turtle-like, as reflected by the Pride's 313th rating for possessons per game. Partly as a result, it yields 66 ppg, 18th fewest in Divsion 1. The NCAA Tournament is guard-oriented, and Hofstra could maintain a degree of pace control with CAA Player of the Year Cruz Davis and conference Freshman of the Year Preston Edmead. A spread bet -- now at +11.5 -- is worth considering, but the safer option given Holloway's almost certain absence is an Under.