Mike's Picks (5 Live)
It's a home game for Hawaii, 6-1 SU this season at the bowl venue. It's also a familiar scenario for the Rainbow Warriors, 5-4 outright in this bowl. As for Cal, how the heck is a team with the statistically worst ground game in FBS still playing? The Bears lost by a combined 55 points to San Diego State and Stanford, two opponents that Hawaii handled easily by a combined 38 points. Cal has dropped bowl games SU the past two seasons. It is comforting to have FBS' premier kicker, Kansei Matsuzawa (25 for 26 on field goals) on your side.
Head coaches come and go during the bowl season but rarely like this one. Ohio canned Brian Smith for undisclosed but "serious professional misconduct." That's got to throw a team off course. Smith had helped the Bobcats extend their SU bowl win streak last season to a half-dozen. Now they must recalibrate. UNLV has been nearly golden on the money line as favorites, going 9-1. With QB Anthony Colandrea cooking and the bowl-experienced Dan Mullen coaching, the Rebels need not outscore Ohio by much to bring home an ATS win.
For Western Kentucky backers, this spread has blessedly and mysterously dwindled. Southern Miss improved by leaps and bounds from 1-11 SU a year ago but dropped its last three outright and final four ATS. Head coach Charles Huff, the main play-caller, has left a void by moving on. WKU coach Tyson Helton has found success in bowls, with four SU wins in six tries. He can -- and likely will -- call on two experenced QBs to mix things up. The Hlltoppers lost a key RB to the transfer portal, but overall neither side was hurt by defections. CUSA (Western) is 3-0 outright against the Sun Belt (Southern Miss) in bowls this month.
Welcome to the smallest total of the season for Louisville -- by a couple of points. Only three others were south of 50, one barely at 49.5. Odd since Toledo owns the most potent offense in the MAC, and both sides wield productive QBs -- Tucker Gleason for the Rockets, Mitch Moss for Louisville. Under coach Jeff Brohm, the two Cardinals bowl games were points explosions -- 70 and 69 points. Under a south Florida sun with weather conducive for scoring, this number could be caught by third quarter's end.
Colts QB Philip Rivers became the NFL's heartwarming story of the season with his return from a five-year retirement. Now let's look at a telling stat: 120 yards passing Sunday, with a measly 4.4 yards per attempt. He avoided throwing downfield for a reason: reduced arm strength. RB Jonathan Taylor heard his number called 28 times (25 carries, three receptions), and he barely reached 100 yards combined. Count on San Fran coach Kyle Shanahan to figure out how to keep the Colts out of the end zone. The Niners have averaged 31 ppg during their four-game SU win streak and should have no trouble against a so-so defense to clearly outscore the limited Colts.
Washington State is without its head coach (Jimmy Rogers, who accepted a new gig) and as many as nine players who have dived into the transfer portal. Stabliity is on the side of Utah State. The Aggies have suffered minimally on the transfer front and have retained Bronco Mendenhall, a bowl veteran as coach. He has split 14 of the games SU, many in which his team was an underdog. The Aggies have been a bettor's best friend this season, going 10-2 ATS. They closed the season with two easy wins and the narrowest of losses to UNLV and Bose State, the Mountain West's top two teams.
New England would be rolling into Baltimore with an 11-game outright win streak if not for coughing up a hefty lead to Buffalo last Sunday. The outcome might serve the Patriots well in bringing them back to earth. Hitting the road is hardly daunting, given the Pats’ 6-0 SU away mark with four straight covers as a road underdog. Baltimore, by contrast, is 3-5 SU at home. This surprising spread is based on the public’s belief that, amid a rocky season, the Ravens finally found their bearings with a shutout win last Sunday over Cincinnati. One stellar performance in a year mostly devoid of them does not support this line.
Here's a betting stat that jumps off the page: In their last dozen games after a straight-up defeat, the Lions stand 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS. This is a muscular spread, but Detroit averages a whopping 33.7 ppg at home and benefits from the absence of Steelers pass rush maestro T.J. Watt. The Lions' D applies pressure, and QB Aaron Rodgers has the poorest completion rate among starters in that scenario. He's also at the bottom for average yards per pass attempt, which suggests that a Steelers rally is unlikely if they fall behind.
QB Kirk Cousins, whose future in the league wll be determined by how he plays in the season's stretch run, should be delighted to see WR Drake London suiting up. Atlanta's premier WR returns after a month of nursing an injury. On defense, the No. 2 unit in sacks should harass Jacoby Brissett on the passing-obsessed Cardinals. The Falcons have been up-and-down lately, while the Cardinals have been down-down. They own a single victory in the last dozen starts and have yielded at least 40 points in the past four games. London could not have picked a more promising scenario for his comeback.
When does a team get shut out and lose by 24 points one Sunday, then lay more than a field goal on the next? When the opponent is all but eliminated from the playoffs while possibly turning to a rookie QB who was a last-round draft pick and has thrown passes in one game. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel has opened the door to replace Tua Tagovailoa with lightly regarded Quinn Ewers. Miami's Monday night loss to Pittsburgh was not all Tua's fault. The defense turned back the Aaron Rodgers' clock, allowing the Steelers QB to play like the Hall of Famer he will become. This pick relies on Cincinnati to bounce back from an awful game. We're counting on the Bengals' pride to surface.