Mike's Picks (2 Live)
Concussed Trevor Lawrence has landed on injured reserve, leaving the Jags with pedestrian backup Mac Jones at the helm . . .
Every year, one team gets covered almost head-to-toe by bite marks from the injury bug . . .
Mike's Past Picks
You know the weather will be harsh in Buffalo when the Bills recruit volunteers to shovel snow in and around the stadium. The downfall is expected to be measured in feet, not inches. The 49ers have cleared QB Brock Purdy to play, which has propped up the total, but how effective can he be, especially with OT Trent Williams and OG Aaron Banks scratched? A concern is Buffalo QB Josh Allen's effectiveness in inclement conditions, yet this predicted amount of accumulation might be excessive enough to limit the league's Mr. Snowman.
Now that the Rams have regained their health, particularly with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back onboard, a late-season surge is foreseeable. Nacua torched New Orleans last season with 11 catches for 164 yards. Coaches do not suit up, but Sean McVay versus interim Darren Rizzi seems one-sided. The schedule-makers tossed L.A. a break with a late kickoff time in the eastern time zone.
Rookie Drake Maye is an upgrade at QB for New England, but the team is nonetheless 2-5 straight-up with him starting. The Pats still rank dead-last in yards per game. Though Indy has gotten pounded by superior opponents, it has beaten four out of five foes with sub-.500 records. Let's compare ATS marks: the Colts are 8-4, the Pats 4-7-1. A 2.5-point spread against a weak foe can be a temptress, but any spot less than a field goal with the Pats involved is irresistible.
The Chargers' two recent points-filled games -- 61 and 53 -- are misleading. The opponents, Cincinnati and Baltimore, wield high-powered offenses. L.A.'s first eight outings all landed in the 20s and 30s, and they will miss injured RB J.K. Dobbins, who accounts for 60 percent of the team's ground yards and has eight TDs. Atlanta's offense started the season ablaze but has burned out, with 23 points produced in the past two games. The concern is that run-minded coach Jim Harbaugh might take to the air without Dobbins, but that would go against type.
The Chiefs might be winning on the scoreboard but not against the spread. They have dropped five in a row, the first of which was a seven-point decision over Las Vegas. Recent straight-up victories have included one in overtime and one last Sunday on a game-ending field goal. Their 14th-ranked offense has not generated enough points for covering sizable lines, and their biggest win margin out of 10 is 13 points. Though the Raiders lost QB Gardner Minshew on Sunday to injury, occasional starter Aidan O’Connell is expected to be activated off injured reserve. The backup plan is former NFL starter Desmond Ridder. Stir in the rivalry element, and a tighter outcome that the spread suggests is plausible.
Never could have imagined a pick being based partly on QB Tommy DeVito not playing. The Giants bypassed second-stringer Drew Lock last week when it demoted since-dropped Daniel Jones and started third-stringer DeVito. That speaks of how little confidence New York has in Lock, who likely gets the call in a short week with DeVito ailing. While the Cowboys' recent Thanksgiving Day results are spotty, they are accustomed to the holiday week turn-around. They surely enter the matchup in higher spirits than New York after upsetting Washington as double-digit underdogs last Sunday.
If it's Monday night, gotta go with the Ravens. They are 6-2 outright on the day largely because Lamar Jackson has tossed for a mind-boggling 20 TDs and zero interceptions. The Chargers, who have yielded the fewest points per game in the league, will surely challenge him. But as long as it's not Pittsburgh, which owns Jackson and Baltimore, the visitors should double L.A.'s average allowance and reach the high 20s. Let's go with John over Jim in the Harbaugh Bowl.
As potent as the offense is, the Eagles have ridden the defense to their six-game outright win streak. Two opponents were held to single digits in scoring, three others to the teens. The numbers do not quite show it, but the Rams' D has improved the past several weeks. L.A.'s offense has struggled in the red zone, so threes instead of sevens against Philly's stingy defense inside the 20-yard line enhances the chances for an Under.
The 49ers will be underdogs for the first time in -- wait for it -- 37 games. Their status is deserving. They are 5-5 straight-up. They will hold out their two key players, injured QB Brock Purdy and DE Nick Bosa. The former will be replaced by Brandon Allen, who last started three years ago with another team. The latter's absence will spare QB Jordan Love, who fares poorly under pressure, of feeling the heat usually applied by Bosa and allow him more time in the pocket. The spread would be larger -- and it might grow -- because the betting public cannot fathom a playoffs without the Niners. Until (or unless) they get healthy, the prospects for a San Fran-less postseason are ripe.
Bucs WR Mike Evans looks like a go, which is invaluable to an offense missing fellow ace pass-catcher Chris Godwin. Tampa Bay's O has held its own without both, and QB Baker Mayfield should ratchet it up with the future Hall of Famer back. Mayfield's counterpart is causing a stir. The Giants not only benched David Jones but bypassed designated backup Drew Lock in naming third-stringer Tommy DeVito to start. As a bonus, New York has employed Jones as a safety in practice. New York is as good as dead in the playoff race while Tampa Bay remains in the mix despite four straight setbacks. The motivational edge is clear.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores makes life hard for rookie QBs -- and, make no mistake, Caleb Williams has often looked like a rookie. Flores is fond of blitzing, which first-year QBs require time to figure out. He can ask fellow young QB Justin Fields, who was sacked five times in a game by Minnesota as a Bear. The Vikes thrive in the Windy City, with four consecutive straight-up wins there. QB Sam Darnold was iffy for awhile during the week but is good to go.
After a blazing debut by QB Jameis Winston three weeks ago, the Browns' bumbling offense has managed 24 points in two games. (One of three TDs came in garbage time.) Now Cleveland must cope with an added impediment -- inclement weather. Good luck scoring against rain or snow, plus the Pittsburgh defense. The Steelers' offense has perked up with their midseason switch to QB Russell Wilson. With a superior squad, coach Mike Tomlin likely will curtail risky passes and ground Cleveland down with a rushing approach. That could keep the clock rolling and deliver an Under.
The unbeaten Chiefs are living on borrowed time. All but two of their wins have occurred by one score. They have trailed in all but one game. QB Patrick Mahomes has been on the run because of ongoing issues at left OT. As for the Bills, they have failed to win outright in just two of the last two-dozen home dates. Their points differential is second-best in the league. Mahomes has few peers; Josh Allen is one of them. Buffalo got a break this week when KC placed PK Harrison Butker, who has connected on 90 percent of field goal tries, on injured reserve.