Mike's Picks (2 Live)
Mike's Past Picks
The betting public's overexuberance with the Packers lingers. They have covered once in the last six outings. Philly might have gotten over its Super Bowl hangover in the most recent game -- specifically RB Saquan Barkley, who broke loose for 150 yards after previously not topping 88 this season. As a whole, the Eagles ground out 276 yards. With Green Bay's rush defense getting punctured recently, Barkley could serve up an encore. Under coach Nick Sirianni, the Eagles have won every game SU following a bye. They won't have to cope with emergent TE Tucker Kraft, whose injury last week closed out his season.
In games when Chargers OT Joe Alt has played wire-to-wire, they average seven points per game more than when he hasn't. Alt's second stint on the injury list that began this week is the tip of the iceberg. OT Rashawn Salter was lost for good in preseason, and two other O-linemen are iffy. QB Justin Herbert has absorbed the most hits and third-most sacks in the league. He should brace for more. His opposite, Aaron Rodgers, has been sharp of late, but Pittsburgh has not faced many defenses as nasty as the Chargers' (third fewest pass yards, sixth fewest total yards yielded.) It could be no shootout at the L.A. corral.
A half-hundred seems high. Each team has engaged in one game where this total was hit -- the Rams not since Week 3. San Fran ranks 23rd in points scored, with four teams below them having played one fewer game. Mac Jones remains the 49ers QB -- not a significant drop-off from injured regular Brock Purdy but a notch below nonetheless. L.A.'s defense yields the 10th lowest amount of yards. This is a legit rivalry game, the nature of which reduces the chances of a shootout.
QB Jacoby Brissett has been effective enough off the bench that speculation swirls in the desert that Arizona might part with mainstay Kyler Murray, now on injured reserve, after the season. Brissett has exceeded 300 passing yards in all three starts and produced an average of 25 ppg. With and without Murray, the most one-sided of the Cards' five SU losses came by four points, well within this spread. Last week's win at Dallas halted the slide, putting them in a positive mood for this trip. Seattle has suffered an epidemic of injuries at WR, prompting a trade for Rashid Shaheed this week, and run-stuffing DT Jarran Reed was ruled out Saturday.
In recent days, the Jets have remade their defense by trading CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams while demoting Q's brother, LB Quincy Williams. This is about as close as it gets to washing one's hands of the season while in the middle of the schedule. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski this week lateraled play-calling duties to O.C. Tommie Rees, which can only help the stuck-in-the-mud offense -- as does New York's multiple changes on D. The Jets are coming off a bye, which might constitute bad news. They are 1-8 SU in the last nine years, with an average losing margin in double digits.
Amid the flurry of stats that overwhelm us each week, we see one every now and then that cannot be ignored. Lamar Jackson on the road: 32-16-2 ATS. The QB relishes his travels. Baltimore’s defense has flipped the script. In the first five games, it yielded an average of 35.4 points. In the last three: 13 ppg. This week’s acquisition of edge rusher Dre’Mont Jones from the semi-tanking Jets only brings it up a notch. Jones has amassed 19 QB pressures and 4.5 sacks, four in the last four games. Let’s not forget this marks just the fourth start by Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy. While he is inspiring considerable huzzahs, he threw in one clunker and his passer rating was modest in all three outings.
Carolina may never have conceded this many points throughout its modest history. In fact, the Panthers have been favored just twice in the past three seaons. Consider: They have won four of five outright by relying on a torrid rushing attack. The defense doled out 13 points last Sunday to Green Bay. Against five foes with losing records this year, they have never failed to cover. Also, the Saints not only have resorted to a rookie QB (Tyler Slough), who produced 10 points in his coming out as a starter, but they dealt away this week WR Rashid Shaheed, his primary target in the defeat. If the Panthers had another team name on their jerseys, the spread might be a full touchdown.
Jacoby Brissett is a valued backup QB. Yet at the risk of oversimpliying: His opposite, Dak Prescott, is having a Pro Bowl type of season. Given the narrow spread and magnified home-field edge on Monday night, the three points is worth laying. (Shop around since many sportsbooks list 3.5 and the Cardinals' five losses are by an average of 2.6 points.) With Prescott, the Cowboys stand 5-1 SU on MNF, and they have covered three in a row overall as home faves. As close as the Cards have come to victory during their drought, the fact is their latest outright W was on Sept. 16. While Brissett has looked sharp in relief, 'Zona would prefer having Kyler Murray, 9-0 SU lifetime in this stadium.
The Titans are doing their best to help shed the league’s reputation of games being decided in the last minute or two. Their last half-dozen defeats happened by double-digits. With several instances of improved health, the Chargers can continue the pattern. Most significatly, OT Joe Alt returned last week from a hiatus, and it was no coincidence that L.A. slapped Minnesota around for 37 points. But this pick is more about Tennessee. It traded a starting DB this week, following another discharge from the secondary last week. The Titans already are looking to 2026., with four starters being held out. Amidst a 1-6 ATS slump that includes 0-3 at home this season, who can fault them?
Hello? The Colts are not only 6-2 ATS, but their margin of victory against the spread is a whopping 10.6 points. Pittsburgh, by contrast, is 3-4 ATS with a minus 2.1. A more significant contrast: Indy ranks sixth in scoring defense, 16 slots ahead of the Steelers. For yards allowed, Pittsburgh is superior to only two teams. Oh, the Colts stand atop the scoring offense rankings and boast a points differential of +116, well ahead of the runner-up. The bubble may well burst at some point for Indy. Until then, laying a number this small is a no-brainer.
The once-potent 49ers are scoring 20 points per outing. Only one of their games in regulation has surpassed this total. The Giants' defense has been a sieve lately, but in a recent three-week stretch, their games generated 31, 39 and 40 points. Their offense has lost RB Cam Skattebo and WR Malik Nabers, whch puts a heavy burden on rookie QB Jaxson Dart. This total belongs in a game involving the Chiefs or Bills.
The Patriots have torn through the league's lower half -- Buffalo being an exception -- in compiling an impressive record. The inconsistent Falcons could join the list of victims, But, at its best, Atlanta has resembled a second-tier NFL team. The Dirty Birds welcome back a phalanx of recently injured players -- QB Michael Penix Jr. and WRs Drake London and Darnell Moody. The Pats will miss ailing RB Rhamondre Stevenson, whose blocking is as creditable as his running. Atlant's No. 1-ranked pass defense could bring white-hot QB Drake Maye back to earth.
Ever-improving QB Bryce Young returns from injury rehab against a team that is good but not as good as this spot suggests. Green Bay was laying around a touchdown to the Browns, Cowboys, Bengals and Cardinals — and failed to cover in any. Young was once vulnerable to turnovers but might go unscathed, given the Packers’ four takeaways this year, tied for the NFL’s fewest. Flexing an 11th-best defense, Carolina has covered in three-fourths of its 16 latest outings when on the receiving end of points. Prior to last Sunday’s drubbing from Baltimore, the Panthers had taken outright three in a row and four of five. Within reason, they can handle the famous tundra, frozen or not.