

Mike Tierney
Top Dog
A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Mike Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. Mike does not consider himself a pet lover. But he likes 'dogs, preferring to evaluate each game from the underdog's point of view. Mike is 320-271-16 in the NFL the past four seasons, returning $1,867 to $100 players. That includes Mike going 130-101 ATS (56.3 percent) the past two seasons. And over the past two college football seasons, Mike is 121-103 (plus $741 for $100 players). For Mike Tierney media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
@MTierneySportsGet Access ToALL PICKS FROM MIKE & THE REST OF OUR EXPERTS
Mike's Picks
7 Live PicksIs this the week the Chargers get their first win?...
The Packers have covered five of their last six games...
The Lions have allowed just 15.5 points over their last four games...
The Falcons have lost four of their last five games...
OK, kid, it's all yours. With the trade
Two Hall of Famers-in-waiting on the same
Jacksonville is in it to win it -- the
What happens when the top-ranked offense collides with the top-ranked defense? Not many points, we believe. Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores, mastermind of the league's blitzing-est team, will unleash the dogs on Josh Allen, who is surprisingly human against extra rushers. Entering the weekend, his passer rating was 20th best among starters in such situations. Injured Vikings QB Kyler Murray gives way to Carson Wentz, who doesn't throw much. In a previous start this season, he attempted 20 passes. The Vikes are kings of the hill for points allowed (13.3 average). Look for plenty of Wentz handoffs to keep Allen on the sideline.
Give Green Bay at least a field goal under coach Matt LaFleur, and it's generally golden. The Packers are 17-3 ATS in such circumstances. More recently, they have covered five in a row, the Patriots in none of their last three. Because Green Bay’s ground game is stuck in quicksand, it might not dig its way out against a defense ranked sixth against the rush. However, QB Jordan Love tops the league in passing yards and has averaged two TD tosses per game. If he can maintain the pace, the Packers should be safe. During their streak, the Packers have doled out 20 or fewer points in each game.
This matchup is all about the QBs. For the Cardinals, Jacoby Brissett is not only out of the lineup but out of Arizona, having been traded to Baltimore. Gardner Minshew is stepping in, and little is lost in the change. In fact, he might be an upgrade. For the Seahawks, Sam Darnold is rehabbing an injury. As poorly as he has played lately, they are comfortable with Drew Lock. But he, too, is ailing, so resorting to young Jalen Milroe if necessary would be worrisome. Bottom line, a low score is anticipated, with the total under 40. Laying this much with a favorite that has not eclipsed 20 points in the past three weeks would be unwise.
L.A. will win a game someday this season. This does not appear to be the one. The Chargers haven't even covered, with one push preventing a total ATS trainwreck. The offense has not scored a touchdown in nine -- nine! -- periods. The last 27 possessions have produced all of five field goals. D-linemen Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter will be in the grill of besieged QB Justin Herbert. The Texans' defense is no longer the baddest on the planet but remains formidable. Fresh off a bye, the visitors are healthy and primed to extend the Chargers' misery.
Denver is the most untrustworthy six-win team in the league. The Broncos have been outgained by a remarkable 658 yards. They have accomumalted just one more TD than their opposition. Most of their good work has been done at home. The Panthers must patch up a bumped-and-bruised offensive line. They can pull it off. With coach Dave Canales in charge, they have covered in 15 of the past 17 games following a defeat.
With the trade deadline arriving Tuesday, Indy swears it will keep riding RB Jonathan Taylor. Color us skeptical. Why risk an injury? Now Taylor might plead for playing time against the league’s lowest-ranked rush defense, but we suspect his workload will be scaled back. Plus, Daniel Jones oddly remains the QB despite weekly struggles. As for the Colts’ D, it’s ranked 30th for points permitted, so Dallas should find the end zone enough to counter whatever Taylor achieves. The Colts already dealt away two standouts, and the concern permeating the locker room was apparent at last weekend’s 35-point loss to Jacksonville.
With Taylor the subject of trade talks as Tuesday's deadline nears, the Colts rolled back his rushing workload to just eight carries last weekend (though he was targeted for five passes.) Indy falling behind early was surely a factor, but a deal seems more likely than not, so risking an injury would be foolish. Given that Dallas scores a bunch, the Colts could undergo a repeat of their last outing and be forced to throw a lot, thus reducing Taylor's carries.
J.J. McCarthy was reasonably sharp in his rushed debut as the Giants' starting QB two Sundays ago. With plenty of time to catch up during the bye week, he should operate on all cylinders against beaten-down Philly. No bushelful of points will be required for a win. The Eagles have averaged a tick below 15 ppg in their six-game straight-up slide and are resorting to their fourth QB this season to take the field. Joe Milton has been an Eagle for just three weeks. He commandeers an offense that leads the league in possessions without a first down. Good luck, Joe.

