This line assume his TD rate this season (4 TDs on 13 receptions) is unsustainable. He has accounted for 15.5% of team receptions but 50% of his team's pass TDs this season. But don't expect his 50% to drop to 16%. Romeo Doubs has always accounted for 15 to 17% of team receptions (16.6% career) but his % of team's receiving touchdowns is 33%. Jordan Love's pass TD line is -180 over 1.5 on FanDuel. That implies the same 2.3 that the model projects. Based on our % chance he scores at least once, we'd set the line closer to -130.
The Titans are allowing over 40 more passing yards per game this season (231) vs last season. This line is more reflective of Geno Smith's struggles as a Raider (208 avg) and not his strong 2024 (>250 average). But even with his overall significantly lower average he still has gone over this line in 3 of 5 games.
The Chargers defense started out well but they have struggled to stop the run the last three games. They allowed 118 rushing yards on 5.6 ypc to Denver, 161 yards on 3.8 to the Giants when you knew the Giants were going to run a lot, and 163 on 5.8 ypc to Washington where "Bill" had his breakout game. I'm not necessarily expecting Ollie Gordon to have a breakout game, but we are projecting him for 23 rushing yards on 6 carries. De'Von Achane's FD rushing yard line is 56.5… are we really only expecting 70 total rushing yards by the RBs? There should be plenty of opportunities for Gordon to pop one decent carry and at least squeak over 13.5 yards.
Sam Darnold's over/under since 2024 when he became a full time starter again is 14-14 so you can understand where they got the +105 line. He had an INT meltdown las season at Jacksonville with 3 interceptions and what made that notable was last year's Jags team only had 3 interceptions in their other 16 games! If he had 3 vs last year we like him to have at least one against a Jacksonville defense that leads the NFL with 10 interceptions.
Wan'Dale Robinson accounts for an impressive 22.6% of team receptions when active. With a 17.5 completion line that extrapolates to the 4 receptions we project. The line, albeit juiced under, is assuming a much larger 33% share with Malik Nabers out. But without Nabers stretching the field and drawing double teams Robinson won't necessarily be open enough to significantly increase his percentage. He had 5 receptions last week which is good but with 26 Dart completions it was still under his career usage percentage. I'd grab this FanDuel line while you can since the consensus is -146 or more.
Based on how Saquon Barkley's targets rose in the playoffs last season we anticipated Barkley would return to being a 3+ rec per game RB this season. His under 2.5 per game last regular season is still driving the betting line but I think the only sample that is relevant at the moment is his 2025 average of 3.4 receptions and 4-1 over 2.5 receptions.
Jaxson Dart is projected for 163 passing yards. Besides Malik Nabers being out for the season it looks like Darius Slayton will not be ready to go on Thursday Night. The top targets this week are all low yards per reception targets like Wan'Dale Robinson (9.55), TE Theo Johnson (7.94), Daniel Bellinger (10.88), RB Cam Skattebo (7.94), WR Beaux Collins (1 career rec for 7 yards). Only Jalin Hyatt is a deep threat (14 ypr) but he's not a reliable target. Dart tried to air it out last week but it resulted in 2 crushing interceptions. He had 202 yards but on 40 attempts. So far this season he is averaging a shade over 5 yards per attempt.
We are projecting J.K. Dobbins for 62 yards even with just 11.7 rushes per sim. His 5.3 career average of 5.7 this season is 100% a stat he has earned. He is always an injury risk, unfortunately but while he's healthy, like he is now he is a consistent 13+ carry per game even if rookie RJ Harvey gets his 40% of RB snaps. The Eagles ability to pressure the QB without blitzing fueled their Super Bowl run but that can result in gaps vs the run which is why they are allowing 4.8 ypc this season. The Rams with their 2 quality RBs cranked out 160 on the ground. The Chiefs with their bad RBs had 121 on 4.7 ypc.
With a 230 yard projection we're expecting Fields to hit this sometime in the 3rd quarter. Considering Dallas is giving up 309 yards a game I don't think it's unreasonable for Fields, who has 218 and 226 yards in his two full games this season to hit this total. This line is based on his Pittsburgh average as a starter (184). But the Steelers were run first with only an unhappy George PIckens to throw to last season. The Jets have been in shootouts and Fields should eclipse this total vs. the weak Dallas defense.
Tyrone Tracy is out again, Devin Singletary is not going to get the ball on goal to go situations. Any rushing touchdowns are going to be from Cam Skattebo or Jaxson Dart. The team is projected for 20 points and that translates to roughly 2 touchdowns. With Malik Nabers out the chances of 2 passing TDs is unlikely. Since emerging as at least RB1b and now RB1a in week 2 he has scored 2 times in 3 games and the one game he didn't score (last week) was probably his best game.
Our projected rushing total is 24. I know this is not the most statistically sound analysis but he seems to be rushing for 25ish yards every other game (WK1 had 26, WK2 had 2, WK3 had 27, WK4 had -1). We are getting a line that is more based on his average as opposed to his most likely result which is 20+ yards as long as his running is a part of the game plan. The Over was 9-3 in 2024 with a near 23 average and that's where he will hopefully be vs a Raiders team that has allowed around a full yard more per carry on the road than at home since last season.
Tyreek Hill's injury won't impact pass to rush ratio. If anything, the % of passes vs rushes could increase if teams stop the run because they are not stretched vertically by Hill. The heavy reliance on Jonnu Smith last year and Darren Waller now will translate to conversions on 3rd and 7 that they couldn't get to start the season. When you add in the high number of 'glorified handoffs' that go down as pass attempts you should see over 31.5 pass attempts which may only be 2-2 this season, but was 10-3 last season when Tua had a great receiving TE.
The -118 implies a 54% chance but with a 2.1 pass TD per sim projection we'd put those chances at nearly 70%. The last time Love was in Dallas he had 3 passing TDs against a very good Cowboys defense in the playoffs. This line is set based on his production since '24 where he is 10-9 over 1.5 but, the Week 3 vs Cleveland aside, I see him playing much more like the QB he was in 2023, especially vs this Cowboys defense. In 2023 he ended the season 10-1 over 1.5 passing TDs and started 5-0 in 2024 for a 15-1 stretch spanning parts of two seasons.
George Pickens may be in for CeeDee Lamb type targets (15+) especially if Green Bay is out in front by a wide margin. Jake Ferguson is getting a ton of usage in the middle of the field but is not a TD threat. Obviously most of his stats were accumulated in Pittsburgh but Pickens' % of team receiving TDs is nearly 2x (36%) of what his % of team receptions are (18.5%). When you adjust for CeeDee's absence you can find that Pickens' 36% is closer to 50% for this game and his model based line would be right around +100 (50%).
Our model would set this line at -120 so to get this much plus money is something we love. Williams scored twice in Week 1 and once in Week 2. He was terrible for a couple seasons in Denver after his serious injuries but is currently averaging a career high 5.3 ypc (3.6 and 3.7 in '23 and '24) and it's not like he's doing it with a dominant offensive line either. Rookie Jaydon Blue has yet to be activated. Miles Sanders has done well enough to hold off Blue as the backup RB but with his costly Week 1 fumble has done enough (bad) to not threaten Javonte for RB1 duties, especially on the goal line where Sanders has always seemingly struggled.