Legitimate toss-up. The Buccaneers have been terrible in primetime. The Commanders have only beaten one quality team. Jayden Daniels is a rookie making his first playoff start on the road, yet he’s not a normal rookie. Both rush well, but Washington can’t defend the run. Both throw well, but Tampa Bay can’t defend the pass. The Bucs are getting secondary help with Antoine Winfield, and their ability to lean on Bucky Irving to churn clock and extend drives should be critical. If the Commanders’ pass protection is not on point, the Bucs’ strong defensive front should impede some of Daniels’ scrambling. Washington is on an 0-3 ATS streak on the road, and Baker Mayfield has playoff experience playing well in the 2023 wild card.

Without Christian Watson to draw coverage, the Packers passing offense struggles. He’s now out for the season. Green Bay and Jordan Love have shown an ability to bounce back in second halves -- necessary due to slow starts. That does create dangerous backdoor cover scenarios. However, the Pack are 2-5 SU & ATS against playoff teams with mostly close losses, including to the Eagles by 5 in the season opener. Philadelphia is much improved four months later with a defense that has been on fire since the bye week. Philly closes out games extremely well with Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, and it is coming off a half-bye, just like Buffalo. Taking the best line available here, but as a dead zone, take through -5.5.

The Broncos have impressed with their defense stout and offensive improving at the right time. However, they have one win against teams that made or just missed the playoffs (playing starters, the Bucs in Week 3); 0-7 otherwise with six losses by 6+ points. Bo Nix is a rookie starting his first playoff game on the road in cold weather. The Bills and Josh Allen have failed to live up to postseason expectations, but they’ve authored big-time wild card wins. With the line falling into a palatable range, Buffalo’s defense getting healthy, its offense rested and Allen on a mission, I’ll play despite originally planning to pass. Bills need to overcome early pass rush pressure and protect Allen in the second half to thrive.

This spread feels huge. Plus, history tells us not to discount the Steelers and Mike Tomlin as underdogs or against AFC North opponents. However, Pittsburgh has lost four straight by 13.0 ppg, fell at Baltimore by 17 and stands 0-4 in the playoffs since 2016 losing its last three by 15.3 ppg. Its anemic offense features Russell Wilson struggling downfield outside of moonballs to George Pickens. There’s talk of involving Justin Fields. Will it matter? The Ravens not having Zay Flowers is concerning, but they still possess far more weapons overall. Baltimore averages 100 more yards, 8 more ppg than Pittsburgh. The defenses are near statistical mirrors. The Ravens are 4-0 SU & ATS since their bye winning by 23 ppg (two against playoff teams).

Not sure I'd have taken the Chargers over the Texans at the midway point, but here we have a diminished Houston offense facing a surging Jim Harbaugh-coached team. The Chargers won three straight entering the postseason with a 9-2 ATS mark since Oct. 27; the Texans are 4-5 SU & ATS since Oct. 31. Justin Herbert is playing his best ball at the most important time. J.K. Dobbins is back healthy helping open the passing game. Conversely, C.J. Stroud has 9 TD and 8 INT over his last eight games with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both out. The Bolts being on the road for a third straight week deserves pause; it’s not enough to shy away from Herbert, this defense, Harbaugh and his staff.

Locking in the Lions now with the last of the -2.5s available, a number you absolutely want if you're siding with Detroit on Sunday night. The Lions are banged up and need a bye more than any team in the NFL. The implications of this game are massive, and I'm backing Dan Campbell's crew. Will update this pick Sunday afternoon.

Locked in the Chargers with the Bengals having the game in hand, which presents an opportunity for Los Angeles to earn the No. 5 seed with a win Sunday. The spread has since increased, understandably, and I remain comfortable with L.A. at -6.5 or better. There's also a tremendous teaser opportunity with your choice of late-game underdogs. Aidan O'Connell is a legit QB capable of actually moving the ball and scoring, but the Chargers defense and Justin Herbert should be gassed up for this opportunity. One of few games this week where result matters significantly for a team entering the playoffs.

DeMeco Ryans claims the Texans will play their starters against the Titans despite having their playoff spot locked up. I’m willing to believe him … to a point. Houston has lost three straight falling 31-2 last week as the offense fell off a cliff without Tank Dell. As we saw with the Steelers, the Texans need a get-right game going into the playoffs. This is a perfect spot against the Titans, which registered their only win since Nov. 3 over Houston. The Texans should be motivated to start, and they know a playoff run is unlikely given their limitations. Slim pickings this week, so let's take a risk that Ryans plays his starters more than a quarter. If that’s the case, this should pay.

There’s a misunderstanding that the Ravens win makes this unimportant for the Steelers; playing at Baltimore or at Houston are drastically different playoff paths. Pittsburgh won by a TD back on Dec. 1 with Russell Wilson tearing apart Cincinnati’s awful defense, but it’s lost three straight with Russ looking rough since. Dropping four in a row entering the postseason is anti-momentum. No wonder Mike Tomlin is playing his guys. Why back the Bengals? Not having Chase Brown gave major pause; he unlocked the potential of Cincinnati’s offense. But there are zero questions about the Bengals’ motivation, the defense may be making moderate improvements, and Joe Burrow is carving up opponents weekly. Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS as road favorites this season with four straight covers overall.

Might the 49ers win this game? Sure. It’s at home and they are a talented team with a good coach. There’s just not a scenario where picking against the Lions in this spot makes much sense. San Francisco is out of the playoffs, and Detroit has a No. 1 seed in its sights. Brock Purdy has thrown for less than 160 yards in three of the last five weeks (all losses), and he will now be operating behind an offensive line missing more key players. Jared Goff has thrown 17 TD to one INT over the last six weeks with Detroit's only loss coming to Buffalo. The Lions are injured defensively, but the Niners have given up 29+ points over four of five weeks.

Momentum for the Falcons behind Michael Penix Jr. is understandable, especially given how he opens up the running game for Bijan Robinson against a Commanders unit that has struggled all season up front. Washington’s elite offense should not be discounted, though, especially against a struggling Atlanta D. The only defenses that have limited Jayden Daniels this season have been among the best in the league, and a couple wins over the Raiders and Giants don’t make the Falcons one of those. Plus, Atlanta has nearly zero pass rush while Penix is making his first road start against a Dan Quinn defense outdoors.

There was some pause here with Christian Watson being listed as inactive given his field-stretching ability opens a ton underneath for Jordan Love and the Packers, but this is nevertheless the right spot to pick Green Bay over Minnesota. The Pack are 0-4 against the best teams they faced this season, but they have been rolling on both sides of the ball recently. Love has cut down on his turnovers, and the defense has locked down overall despite the continued absence of Jaire Alexander. The Vikings have been tremendous, but they haven’t faced a team of quality since late October. Minnesota would have lost the first meeting if not for all of Love’s questionable throws (and two missed field goals).

The 1 p.m. window is dreadful, and this is the only spot that seems to offer any value. The Colts are running their entire offense through Jonathan Taylor, which takes a lot of pressure off Joe Flacco. While his play as a backup this season has been criticized, he’s still moved the ball well, and this might be the last game of his entire career. Indianapolis has more weapons, more talent and more at stake. The Giants are dreadful and 1-9 ATS since Oct. 6. With this line hitting -7, it’s worth a play as New York has lost four of five games by that number. I will also have the Colts as a teaser with the Eagles in this window.

Why should anyone believe in Kyler Murray and the Cardinals these days? They haven't won a road game since Oct. 27 (1-2 ATS) only beating the Bears, Jets and Patriots at home. Now, they’re eliminated from the playoffs and relying on … pride? The Rams have held their last three non-Bills opponents to 14 points or less, and they can lock up the division. Don’t get it twisted: This line is inflated. Los Angeles should be favored in the dead zone (4.5-5.5). However, Sean McVay is nails in December, and this play is situational. Don’t see how the Cards get the Rams off the field regularly, and Arizona will struggle against Jared Verse with two backup OTs. Will try to get it -6 before kickoff.

Indicative of this being a true 50/50 game is the even wagering on a spread that sits at 3 and 3.5. The Bengals have surged behind Joe Burrow, but the defense is awful. The Broncos have overdelivered in all phases. Denver’s secondary is stacked, but with Tee Higgins active and Chase Brown efficient, Cincinnati can handle it. Neither side has defeated a current playoff team, which is an understated part this matchup being an unknown in Week 17. With the Dolphins and Colts both down starting QBs, the Bengals know their path is suddenly legitimate. This ultimately comes down to Burrow and his weapons at home over Bo Nix. If you cannot get -3, find a live line. Don’t want any part of -3.5.