Gunnar Henderson has been swinging a hot bat of late with six multihit games in his last eight and five extra-base hits in that stretch. He also homered against Tuesday starter Griffin Canning as part of a 2-for-3 day at the end of March and tripled against Canning as part of another 2-for-3 day in the only meeting between the two last year. Canning hasn't been much better against the rest of MLB this year with a 8.05 ERA and 11 extra-base hits allowed in four starts, and lefties have 1.096 OPS against the Angels starter this year. I expect another big game from Henderson in this one.

Michael King is coming off a gem in Milwaukee where he struck out 10 batters in seven innings to push his K/9 rate near 10, which is about where it sits for the Rockies offense as a whole. King also had three starts with at least eight Ks in his last five starts with the Yankees last year after getting stretched out. In theory Coors Field is dangerous for opposing pitchers, but the Rockies have scored just five runs in four games since returning from their most recent road trip. Even with heavy juice, I like playing King to reach the six-K threshold in this matchup.

Logan Gilbert has enjoyed an excellent start to the season, allowing only one earned run in three of his four starts while posting a 29:4 K:BB ratio on the year. He's had success against the Rangers in his career, including holding them to two earned runs in each of his three starts facing them last year. Even though the Rangers have a good offense, the player with the most success against Gilbert in his career is Corey Seager, who has not gotten out to a good start so far. I think the juice on this line should be on the Under, not the Over.

The Braves have won seven of their last eight games, six by multiple runs, and they've won three of their four games against the Marlins this year by at least two runs. This is a good spot for Max Fried to find success after an uneven start to the year, as he has pitched well in recent years against this team. The Marlins have played 24 games and lost 15 by multiple runs (including all four Trevor Rogers starts despite his solid 3.92 ERA), so it's reasonable to expect the same on the road against one of the best teams in MLB.

The A's are second to last in runs scored per game ahead of only the awful White Sox offense, and they have been much worse against righties than lefties this year, posting a .600 OPS. That's good news for righty Marcus Stroman, who started his year by allowing no earned runs in two straight starts while throwing six innings in each game. I expect him to get through six against today against this offense and would also consider a sprinkle on him allowing Under 1.5 earned runs at plus odds.

The White Sox offense has been abysmal this season, ranking last in MLB with 2.14 runs per game and a 61 OPS+ as a team. But the Twins aren't exactly lighting up the scoreboard either, ranking bottom three in both offensive categories as well. And on the mound for Minnesota today: Chris Paddack, who has struggled majorly in his three starts this year, including surrendering nine earned runs in his last outing. Jonathan Cannon acquitted himself better than expected in his debut for the White Sox last week, and we should get the win on the run line with another solid performance from him.

Kerry Carpenter is swinging a hot bat with five extra base hits in his last five games, and while he's started 10 straight after being in and out of the lineup to begin the year, he's also staying in the game more, playing the entire way in six of the last seven after doing so in just four of his first 14 games. He could make a quick impact on Sunday against a pitcher in Louie Varland who has struggled to keep the ball in the park with five homers allowed in 14 innings this year after surrendering 16 in just 68 innings last year.

Seth Lugo has allowed just three runs in four starts this year, but he's also been very fortunate in who he's faced; the White Sox have been the worst team in the league and he's got them twice, the Astros have struggled all year and the Twins are well below average in scoring. Baltimore is third in runs per game and just destroyed a much better pitcher in Cole Ragans and they've scored at least four runs in 16 of their 20 games. Lugo is also one of 10 qualified pitchers to strike out less than 13% of batters despite his gaudy ERA. I think the Orioles score more on him today than he's allowed in his four previous starts combined.

Frankie Montas lasted just two innings in his most recent start, but even though he had pitched relatively well to that point, he hasn't been generating a lot of strikeouts. Montas hasn't gotten to six Ks in any of his four starts this year, and his K% and Whiff% have been below average, per Statcast. After a lost 2023, it's possible this is who he is and he doesn't return to striking out a batter per inning this season. Even though the Angels strike out more often than the average team, I think Montas' line should be 4.5 instead of 5.5.

Mitchell Parker found success in his MLB debut, allowing two runs in five innings while striking out four Dodgers, walking no one and securing the win. Even though he's up against the team with the fewest strikeouts in the majors, he can get to four Ks again. Parker has a strong 11.4 K/9 rate in 329.2 career minor-league innings, with all but four appearances coming as a starter. He saw a rise in K rate upon a late-season promotion to Triple-A last year, recording 18 Ks in 10.1 innings over three starts, then another five in his four-inning debut this year. For a pitcher with this track record, he should be expected to get to four Ks against anyone, yet we're getting the 'dog side.

The market is projecting an easy Houston win, but nothing has been easy for the Astros this season, as their 7-15 record shows. Cristian Javier has pitched well in all four starts but Houston has just two wins to show. The best three of those starts came at home, where Javier posted a 3.71 ERA last year as opposed to a 5.17 ERA at home. Mitchell Parker followed up a strong Triple-A outing by holding the Dodgers to two earned runs in five innings to get the win, and I like his chances to keep his team in this one against a struggling Houston squad.

Cole Ragans shut down the Orioles earlier in April in Baltimore, giving up just one hit in 6.1 innings, and it's pretty typical for him to complete six innings. After throwing just 81 pitches in his first start for the Royals post-trade, he's made it through six innings in 11 of his last 14 starts, even twice at the end of last season where he allowed at least four earned runs in a start. That tells me that he should be a pretty good bet to get through the sixth in most starts, even against good offenses like Baltimore's.

Patrick Sandoval is not a pitcher that has been able to eat up innings over the last half-season plus, recording an out in the sixth inning just three times in his last 15 starts. His issue with walks last year has persisted in 2024, and the five free passes he handed out to the Rays in his last two starts meant he didn't get past 15 outs in either despite throwing 90+ pitches in both. The Angels also got just three outs from their bullpen yesterday and should be comfortable pulling Sandoval after five innings unless he's pitching much better than he has for most of the season.

The D-Backs pounded the Giants for 17 runs yesterday, taking it to both starter Blake Snell and the bullpen. They could pick up where they left off today against another lefty in Kyle Harrison, who has a 4.80 ERA thanks to giving up five homers in his four starts. Ace Zac Gallen is on the mound for Arizona and he's allowed one run in 17 innings over three non-Colorado starts. He should win this pitching matchup, making Arizona F5 a strong play here.

The D-Backs pounded the Giants for 17 runs yesterday, taking it to both starter Blake Snell and the bullpen. They could pick up where they left off today against another lefty in Kyle Harrison, who has a 4.80 ERA thanks to giving up five homers in his four starts. Ace Zac Gallen is on the mound for Arizona and he's allowed one run in 17 innings over three non-Colorado starts. He should win this pitching matchup, making Arizona F5 a strong play here along with the money line.