Jason's Past Picks
Huskies have some backcourt issues - can't shoot well enough from distance and turn the ball over too much. Rest of conference ready to pounce on their rare down year. The Jays probably cover here - UCONN 3-9 ATS in conference and 3-11 ATS vs. top 80 teams. But we'll play it safer. Creighton has covered 10 in a row and won 9 straight. They are 11-1-1 ATS in conference. Huskies lost by five at home to the Jays. UConn might be feeling a little sorry for themselves though they have yet to lose consecutive games in conference. Jays don't get enough respect.
Illinois has been very erratic offensively for weeks. Their 7-footer was out with mono and got hurt shortly after his return. Long range shooting has been shoddy and I don't think they are going to roll up the points here. UCLA is playing too well winning seven in a row and covering three of four. Illinois has won just three of the last seven games and have split their last four at home. Bruins getting adapted to the Big 10 style. Only road wins in conference vs former Pac 10 brethren WSH and USC. Wouldn't be surprised if that changed here. They can slow this game down and keep it close.
Nevada has had a heck of a time covering in conference and this is obviously a lot of points. The Pack are 3-9 ATS in conference and 1-5 ATS at home in the Mountain West. They were favored by 12.5 in the first meeting and won by 11. When the Bulldogs catch 10 or more points they are 9-5 ATS. They tend to be slow starters but I think they can once again muck a game up in the second half and keep this around 10-12.
Campbell has won six in a row by: 23, 25, 2, 41, 23 and 18. They also covered all six by at least 8.5 points. They are 9-2 ATS in CAA with an average cover margin of 17.3! Getting same spread as A&T at William & Mary, a lesser team than our Camels. CAM is allowing just 62 ppg in CAA and Aggies 11th in CAA in scoring. CAM +10.8 in CAA and NCAT -9.9. Aggies last in FG% and 11th in opponent FG% in CAA. Aggies 3-7 ATS in conference. Camels not used to being big favorites but have earned this number. They are averaging 79 PPG over last six. NCAT lost three of last four by 13+ points.
Rutgers has two freshman scoring sensations and Terps have failed to take away big-scoring guards all season long. Maryland put up 70 on road in last game despite making just 7 FG in second half and its leading scorer never getting to the line. Must win game for Terps and Kevin Willard will lean on stars. UMD capable of hanging 85+ on bad defensive team at home. Rutgers over 151 in 5 of last 6 even when Harper was out. Over in 3 of 4 on road. Terps 6-3 over in last 9. Jakobi Gillespie won't have consecutive bad games and can get over on inexperienced backcourt. Expect high pace in this game. Terps can't take any chances with a tendency for blowing leads.
Stony Brook lookde ripe for beatdowns early in the season. Now they are competing more than enough in the CAA to make us cash. They have covered 7 of the last 8 games and 4 straight on the road - despite facing the top of the conference in that span in Charleston, UNCW and Towson. Hofstra has been erratic and is just 2-5 ATS in the last 7 and have yet to cover this season as a favorite of 5 or more points (0-3). They have lost 5 of their last 7 overall and Stony Brook has been keeping losses to 10 points or less for the most part, even against top teams. SB 6-0 ATS since Christmas as dog of 8+ points.
Monmouth has won three in a row but the schedule favors them and this is a major jump up in level of recent competition. Tigers have won 9 in a row and 6 of them by a7 least 7 points. MON has yet to cover a game in which they were a dog by 3-5 points (0-5 ATS). Tigers have played better ball on road than home and should break from recent scoring woes here. Tigers allow just 65 PPG in CAA while MON allows 75. Tigers have a MOV of 5+ in 7 games during this 9-game winning streak.
The Huskies just won by 9 at Hampden on Jan 30 and things not going well for the loser of that game since. HAM is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games. They are a -7 on the season in the CAA and 4 of their last 5 road losses in the conference are by 11 points or more. NE dominated in paint first meeting 42-26 but got the line just 8 times. Huskies also allowed 19 points off turnovers - doubt that is the case at home - and shot over 53% from the field. HAM is used to getting blown out.
The Norse won Thursday over Cleveland State on an all-time fishy line. Let's see if they can do it again. Maybe the Norse have totally reverses who they are - but 3-10 ATS in conference, 1-9 ATS at home, 2-6 ATS in their last eight games and all six losses by 8+ points still gets my attention. Robert Morris is 13-2 ATS in last 15. They've covered eight in a row, all by 3+ points and they beat the Norse by four already this season. Robert Morris is 11-3 ATS in conference and 6-1 ATS on road in the Horizon. I'm thinking Wednesday was the NKY Super Bowl. Maybe I'm just a glutton.
Seahawks are playing excellent ball, winning seven in row and going 9-1 in the CAA in last 10 games. They have dispatched of lesser teams and beaten all of the top teams in this conference, while continuing to play consistent ball at both ends. Drexel has slipped up at home this season, losing three times already in Philly in conference. Dragons have won two in a row in conference one time this season, early on vs lowly NC A&T and Stony Brook. Hawks 8-0 ATS with 2-3 days off.
The Dogs can muck this game up and keep it close enough. They were 24-point dogs in the meeting at Utah and only lost by six. Fresno State has made money at home, covering 4 of the last 5 there. Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS when getting between 11-14.5 points. Aggies have covered just two of their last nine games and one of their last four on the road.
Everyone is hyping up the Johnies. Pitno this and Pitino that. Hmm. Which program has dominated this region forever? Which program isn't getting much attention after an oddly slow start? Hmm. St. John's has issues offensively and misses a lot of foul shots. You can get away with it in The Garden, but the road is a different story. Dan Hurley is a master motivator and SJ might be running into a buzzsaw here. Huskies are 3-0 vs. ranked teams and 10-1 at home. Experience matters and UConn will clamp down defensively. Hurley will have them just angry enough.
The Tribe have me convinced they are one of the better teams in the CAA. They are 8-2 in conference play, losing only at UNC-Wilmington, maybe best team in CAA, and at upstart Campbell. Drexel is 2-5 in last 7 games and, while once elite at home, are just 2-2 in last 4 there. This is a Thurs/Sat league - Dragons just 1-12 ATS last 13 Thurs games. Tribe are 4-1 SU last 5 Thurs games using that week of prep quite well. Tribe averaging over 77/G in CAA play and I don't think Dragons can keep pace just trying to win the paint.
The Camels have covered 5 straight, 4 of the by 20+ points, averaging 24 MOV. They are 8-2 ATS in the CAA and 4-1 ATS at home in conference and have covered 5 of their last 6 Thursday games (coming off long rest and prep time after a weekend conference game). Elon hasn't been on the road in weeks after playing four straight at home. They won by 13 hosting the Camels but lost at suspect Delaware and are just 5-5 ATS in the CAA. Camels are +10.1 in the CAA and Elon is +2.3. Camels allow just 62 ppg, by far best in the CAA (conference avg is 72). Program making strides in year two in the CAA and can frustrate Elon.
The Hens are leaving the CAA after this season and they already seem checked out. Usually among the top teams, they are 4-6 ATS in conference and 1-6 ATS in last seven. And that's despite playing a total of one game against the best teams in CAA (Towson, Charleston, UNCW, W&M). Hens have lost four in row, allowing 82 per game and are -2.4 in conference. UNCW is +8.6 in CAA and have won six in row scoring at least 80 in all six, Seahawks are 3-1 ATS on road in conference and 5-1 ATS in last six. They are shooting the ball much better as the season has gone on. Delaware is second-worst defensive team in CAA and have lacked energy at home.