Jason's Picks (2 Live)
Jason's Past Picks
The Tribe have me convinced they are one of the better teams in the CAA. They are 8-2 in conference play, losing only at UNC-Wilmington, maybe best team in CAA, and at upstart Campbell. Drexel is 2-5 in last 7 games and, while once elite at home, are just 2-2 in last 4 there. This is a Thurs/Sat league - Dragons just 1-12 ATS last 13 Thurs games. Tribe are 4-1 SU last 5 Thurs games using that week of prep quite well. Tribe averaging over 77/G in CAA play and I don't think Dragons can keep pace just trying to win the paint.
The Camels have covered 5 straight, 4 of the by 20+ points, averaging 24 MOV. They are 8-2 ATS in the CAA and 4-1 ATS at home in conference and have covered 5 of their last 6 Thursday games (coming off long rest and prep time after a weekend conference game). Elon hasn't been on the road in weeks after playing four straight at home. They won by 13 hosting the Camels but lost at suspect Delaware and are just 5-5 ATS in the CAA. Camels are +10.1 in the CAA and Elon is +2.3. Camels allow just 62 ppg, by far best in the CAA (conference avg is 72). Program making strides in year two in the CAA and can frustrate Elon.
The Hens are leaving the CAA after this season and they already seem checked out. Usually among the top teams, they are 4-6 ATS in conference and 1-6 ATS in last seven. And that's despite playing a total of one game against the best teams in CAA (Towson, Charleston, UNCW, W&M). Hens have lost four in row, allowing 82 per game and are -2.4 in conference. UNCW is +8.6 in CAA and have won six in row scoring at least 80 in all six, Seahawks are 3-1 ATS on road in conference and 5-1 ATS in last six. They are shooting the ball much better as the season has gone on. Delaware is second-worst defensive team in CAA and have lacked energy at home.
The Huskers are suddenly playing good ball, going through Illinois and Oregon. They are rare the Big 10 team to handle going way out West and pulling off an upset over the Ducks. Washington is a poor team that can't shoot well or score much and Nebraska's style of defense will be a problem for Great Osobor. Nebraska gave Maryland all it could handle on road and are 5-1 ATS when the spread is within +/- 5 points. Huskies have lost 6 of last 7, all by 4+ points.
I may be about to fall through the world's biggest trap door, but I can't resist. The Vikings are 9-2-1 ATS in conference. They have won 13 straight, 10 by double-digits. Now the Vikings face a team they beat by 18 three weeks ago and they are an underdog? NKY is 2-10 ATS in conference, 1-4 ATS in last five at home. NKY is 1-11 ATS with 4+ days rest. CLE is +11.3 in leading Horizon League and NKY is -3.7. Vikings are an elite D team allowing under 65 PPG. No injuries for Cleveland State and 7-3 ATS in last 10 games vs NKY. Maybe I am missing something major here, but I have to hold my nose and dive in.
The expansion of the Big 10 has been tough on teams going to the Coast across sports and Sparty is running into a Bruins team that survived a travel gauntlet and is back playing their best ball. Izzo's kids finally lost - at USC (tough travel!) - after racking up 13 straight wins with a schedule that highly-favored them. UCLA is 8-4 ATS at home and has won 5 straight and is finding its footing in the new conference. The Bruins are finally starting to shoot the ball better outside and they can bang on the inside. Michigan State was not going to run away and hide in the conference all season long. Play UCLA.
These two teams are both in the top 75 nationally in KenPom's offensive rankings. They are both top three in the conference in 3-point shooting and in the bottom three in defending the three ball. Flyers are 6-3 over in last nine and 3-1 over in the conference at home (avg total: 148). Davidson is over in four of last six games with three straight overs on the road (avg total: 158). Neither team plays with great pace but the ability to score from long range should push this much closer to 150 points.
Tribe highly competitive in CAA this year and 9-0 at home, but when you study who they have played, the schedule has favored them and they're just 1-5 ATS in their last 6. Even their wins over bad teams have generally been one score. I'm saying all of that because they have been so good at home I'm just going the ML route. Charleston is down from last year, but this program is still 18-2 SU in its last 20 CAA games. It has one bad loss this season (Monmouth) and the other defeat is to a legit UNC-Wilmington team. Cougars have won 6 straight in this series and 8 of last 10. They need top 4 seed in CAA tourney. Big spot for them.
Colgate won the first meeting by 5, despite forcing 3s and going 2/13 behind the arc in the first half. They lobbed it low after that, had 38-16 advantage in paint and a 43-32 rebound advantage and pulled away. On the season, they're third in Patriot League in 3 point shooting. Lehigh 4-8 ATS in last 12, and 2-9 ATS as a dog. Colgate 12-5 ATS last 17 games in this series and 9-1 in last 10 with average score of 74-63. Colgate's recent form gives me a little pause, so we're going ML over laying the points. If they stick to a Keep It Simple offensive approach, they may win easy. Lehigh is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games.
These two teams have fared similarly against conference competition. But the books have had trouble pegging the Jaspers. MAN has covered 7 of 8 on the road and have won 5 of last 7 away from home. They are 7-2 ATS as a road dog. They are in good form, while Sacred Heart is coming off a weird scheduling blip and haven't played for a week. Might not be as crisp. SH has covered just 2 of 6 times they have been favored. They've lost 3 of their last 4 at home. A Jaspers victory wouldn't surprise me.
Tigers have won 9 of 10 and covered 7 of them and Dragons are 2-4 ATS in last 7, Drexel been blown out in last two games and Tigers offense hitting new gear with Dylan WIlliamson, who had 26 off bench in 11-point win at Drexel (10/15 from field) now in the starting 5, Towson had 43-31 rebounding margin in that game. Tigers +6.6 in CAA play; Dragons +0.2. Tigers getting right behind arc and Dragons 9th in CAA defending it. Tigers motivated to stay tops of CAA - free pizza for students and $1 beers at SECU Arena today for a national TV game. Should be wild. Projecting another double-digit win for Pat Skerry's CAA leaders.
The Midshipmen continue their strong form, going for a fourth straight win. Bucknell won the first meeting by 4, but got to the line 28(!) times and 18 in the second half alone (Navy took 16 FT in the game). Bucknell also scored 15 points off turnovers then and Navy is protecting the ball better now. Navy has covered 5 of 6 and are +6 in conference; Bucknell is +0.8. Navy top defense and rebounding team in conference. Bucknell is 2-5 ATS in their last seven. Going safer with Navy here again and not laying the points, though I may be overthinking it. Bison shouldn't sweep them.
The Retrievers' backcourt is revved up with two of top nine scorers in the conference. They won at Albany and Vermont and gave undefeated (in conference) Bryant all they could handle Wednesday. UMBC allowed 83/G over the last 8 games and Lowell has allowed 80+ in 4 straight. Lowell is 3-8 ATS In its last 11 and was blown out in its last 2 on the road. Expect the Retrievers to be hot down the stretch and into the America East tourney. This should be the kind of high-paced game they prefer.