I think the Eagles will be chasing this game and Andy Reid is constructing a game plan in which Hurts has to open up the pass game - and in more obvious passing situations - than anything Philly has done in a long time. I'm thinking some Hail Mary type stuff - maybe at the end of both halves - and also him getting some looks from Steve Spagnuolo that he hasn't seen before. Hurts has been incredibly careful with the ball, but he's also due for some regression in that regard (as Jayden Daniels about how that works). He's gone 7 full playoff games without throwing a pick, but has also never had to throw the ball 40+ times in a postseason game.

Jones has had a very quiet postseason. Very unlike him. I don't hate his SB MVP odds if this becomes a defensive struggle and if the Eagles potential health issues in the interior of their offensive line become acute, this guy will feast. Dirty little secret - Eagles OL much better road grading than pass protecting. With two weeks to prepare Spags will have a plan and he can move this big body around and unleash some new wrinkles. He has 10 pressures in his last two Super Bowls and while it's tough to collapse the pocket inside and get sacks the Eagles having to reshuffle their line is a big deal, too.

There's lots of consternation about the Chiefs uncertain RB situation and whom to ride and whom to fade. I tend to think Andy Reid is going to attack like mad with high-percentage passes, Pacheco hasn't looked right and Hunt is limited in the passing game. Perine is over this in 14 of the last 15 games. Wowsers. He has at least 13 receiving yards in 12 of the last 16 games. Eagles should be able to put heat on and get Chiefs in second-and-third-and-long more than enough to win this with a screen pass or two. Pass pro will be essential and I wouldn't be shocked if his role expands a tad here.

19 TDs in his last 19 playoff games. Did almost nothing vs the Bills in the AFC title game but I don't see that happening two weeks in a row. Caught all 6 targets for 81 yards and a TD vs Philly in the Super Bowl a few years ago. He tends to come up big in these biggest of spots.

He's over this in 7 of the last 10 games and while I believe the Eagles are going to have to take more shots in the passing game, this is a low number for a one-game season for this workhorse back. Tush push opportunities scare me a little but this game should stay relatively close and Barkley has 23 carries or more in 7 of the last 10 games and 25 or more in 6 of the last 10. I don't think he'll have as many explosive runs as have become the norm which should results in a few more carries too. Those 50-yard TDs rob us of volume. We've seen Kenneth Gainwell and others stuck on the bench in closer games.

Eagles won't be able to win this game just handing of to Saquon Barkley or running the tush push. Going to have to try to push the ball down the field and I expect the Chiefs to force them to do so by making it hard to move the ball on the ground. KC Barkley can take a screen pass a mile and the Eagles will hit a few explosive plays. Hurts looked better throwing Sunday then he had in quite some time and getting extra rest here is huge.

The Chiefs have been slow starters in Super Bowls and you saw the extra rest lead to a slow start vs Houston off the bye a few weeks back. Eagles were slow starters all season and ranked just 16th in points/drive in the first half of games and outside of occasional explosive run had rough first quarters. Neither coach is a 4th down maven and both trust their defenses. Not averse to taking three points. I don't think we get 38 first half points like in their last Super Bowl meeting. Neither passing attack is as high-octane. Expect more ball control and feeling their way through the first few drives.

I have the Chiefs winning so there is kneel down potential there. The Chiefs traditional run game us inn worse shape than it's been in a long time and Kareem Hunt is gonna have issues with this Eagles DL. Mahomes will do whatever it takes to win 3 straight Lombardis, as evidenced with 11 carries in the AFC title game. He has at least 6 rushes in 5 straight playoff games and is generally right around this number in Super Bowls. IF his OL sags I expect him to run with more regularity. Boots on third-and-fourth and short are staples. Ran 9 times in Super Bowl last year.

He's not a rookie anymore and Patrick Mahomes trusts him fully and he isn't just a deep sideline guy, either. He can make it happen in the horizontal passing game and on the kind of crossers than Jayden Daniels was slicing up the Eagles throwing. He and Matthew Stafford had plenty of joy throwing to their top guys, but turnovers derailed them. Worthy has 65 or more in 3 of the last 4 games with Mahomes. He has 44 targets in his last 5 games with Mahomes. Andy Reid will be moving him all over the place to get matchups he wants. Not leaving anything on the cutting room floor for the first-round pick in this game.

Chiefs RZ offense has ben far from elite this season and Andy Reid isn't married to going to fourth down al the time. He actually tends to lean into his elite kicker and trusts his defense. Butker has attempted at least 2 FGs in 8 of his last 11 playoff games and he's attempted 10 in 4 Super Bowl games. Kicking in a dome will only help him, and lead to Reid trying from even more distance. Kicked 4 against the 49ers in the big game last year. Eagles have a top 5 RZ defense regular season and playoffs this year.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid with two weeks to prepare for a very good defense? I'll bite. The hung 38 on the Eagles in a Super Bowl not that long ago. Mahomes is over this total in 14 of his 20 career playoff games. His teams average 29.7 PPG in the playoffs. He is over this in 3 of his 4 Super Bowl appearances. I have the Chiefs scoring 27 in this game. Their kicker is a real weapon too, especially in a dome.

You don't go against Superman in the Clark Kent invitational (or Clark Hunt invitational for that matter). Patrick Mahomes is 17-3 in the playoffs and I've backed him for much of it and not changing now. (He's also 11-2 ATS in playoffs as a dog or a favorite of 5 points or less). And he's 8-0 lifetime against Vic Fangio defenses, who haven't been able to sack or turn him over nearly enough. Eagles may be better in the trenches, but NFC was fugazi again, KC survived a gauntlet and enters SB remarkably healthy. Can move Joe Thuney back inside if they prefer vs dominant interior PHI DL. Eagles D has slipped in recent weeks and KC ain't turning it over 3 times in SB.

Wondered all week if the allure of these two QBs would get us here. And it has. So I'm jumping it even with the juice because not sure how long it's sticking around. KC defense is legit and holding teams to 20 or less at home. Spags has the answers for Josh Allen in playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is 14-5 under at home since start of last season (reg and playoffs), going under by 5.66/G (Avg close 46). He has played 5 straight home unders in playoffs and is under in 6 of his last 9 postseason games. BUF may stick with run-heavy, conservative script.

Bills beat up at LB and safety. Chiefs weapons on the outside have speed and will divert attention there. Oh and Kelce looks like Kelce again. Mahomes loves going to TE No. 2 in the playoffs and especially for high-percentage throws on short yardage. He's over this in 4 straight playoffs games dating back to their defeat of the Bills in Buffalo last year. Also gained more confidence and targets from Mahomes through the season as Kelce's effectiveness waned.

I wanted to wait for 7, and was worried about Jalen Hurts status eventually bringing this number down. Maybe I will regret this but I don't think Hurts does much of anything this week and people eventually come around to how significant this could be, and this gets under 6. I'll grab this now thinking it might be the best this gets.