Rashee Rice has been a target hog lately and he has the best matchup among Chiefs’ receivers Sunday night. That’s because he operates a lot out of the slot, where Houston is vulnerable. Look for Patrick Mahomes to rely on Rice against the Texans’ zone-heavy scheme.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown 34 or more passes in six straight games. On Sunday Night Football, the Chiefs’ best chance at offensive success will come via the quick passing game. That’s because their already weak run game is likely to struggle behind a makeshift O-line. Look for at least 35 attempts.

Blake Corum has received at least seven carries in six straight games, clearing this rushing total four times. Last week he erupted for 81 yards at Carolina. With the Rams likely to be in clock-killing run mode late, I bet Corum to run for at least 33 yards.

I bet the high-powered Rams to bounce back from their stunning upset loss at Carolina. Arizona has a bleak injury report and has been blown out by its other two division rivals. LA is at least on the level of Seattle and San Francisco. I would play this at anything less than 10.

With Bucky Irving back last week, the Bucs threw just 28 times against Arizona. Look for Tampa Bay to again emphasize the run in what should be a positive game script. In Saints' road games, opponents have thrown the ball a league-low 44.23 percent of the time. I would play this down to 29.5.

Veteran linebacker Eric Wilson is enjoying a career year with the Vikings, the team he originally signed with as an undrafted free agent out of Cincinnati. Wilson is playing every down, has 4.5 sacks and is coming off an 11-tackle performance in Seattle. Washington is an excellent matchup for opposing linebackers. Look for Wilson to register at least seven tackles for the seventh time in his last 11 games.

The Commanders gave a spirited performance coming off their bye, losing by one in overtime to Denver. It was Washington's second solid effort in a row. Terry McLaurin's return made a huge difference, as did the presence of Daron Payne and Will Harris on defense. Now Washington visits a reeling Vikings team dealing with internal turmoil. It is unclear at the moment whether J.J. McCarthy and Jayden Daniels will return. Regardless, I like the Commanders to pull out the win.

Tyler Warren has faced tough matchups recently, but this isn't one of them. Elite tight ends have gone off against the Jaguars, with Trey McBride racking up 79 yards and Brock Bowers exploding for 127. Even Dalton Schultz totaled 53 yards. Look for Warren to be Daniel Jones' primary target.

Brenton Strange has made a significant impact since returning from IR, catching eight passes for 138 yards in two games. Now he faces a Colts team that gives up the second-most receiving yards per game (72.08) to opposing tight ends. Even with Parker Washington trending toward playing, I like Strange to stay heavily involved and clear this number for the third straight week.

With Daniel Jones’ limited mobility, he needs to get rid of the ball more quickly. That meant five targets last week for Jonathan Taylor, who turned those into 36 receiving yards. It was the fourth time in the past six games that Taylor had 21-plus receiving yards. Look for Taylor and Tyler Warren to be among Jones’ favorite targets Sunday in Jacksonville.

Tennessee had covered three straight until losing 25-3 at home to Jacksonville in an uninspiring performance filled with penalties. However, a Browns team led by Shedeur Sanders (29 percent success rate in two starts) should not be laying this big of a number. Look for a close, ugly, low-scoring game and grab the points.

The Steelers' defense was on the field for 74 plays Sunday against Buffalo, giving up 249 rushing yards, and they could be without three key players at Baltimore: LB Patrick Queen (hip), DT Derrick Harmon (knee) and CB James Pierre (concussion). The Ravens should have a ton of success on the ground. In his last two home games against Pittsburgh, Derrick Henry rushed for 186 and 162 yards. Baltimore had extra time to prepare following itsThanksgiving loss to Cincinnati -- a game that would have looked a lot different had Isaiah Likely not fumbled going into the end zone. Pittsburgh has not completed a pass traveling 20-plus air yards in five weeks (0 for 13, 3 INTs).

Kenneth Walker has drawn 14 targets over the past five games, while Zach Charbonnet has been targeted twice in that span. Walker has gone Over this receiving total in four of those five games. Against a strong Atlanta pass rush, look for Sam Darnold to find Walker at least twice. I would play this up to 14.5.

The Lions are banged-up in the secondary, enabling Amik Robertson to grab an every-down role. He has 11 tackles over the past two games. Now he's facing the Cowboys' high-octane passing attack, which has generated a high rate of tackles for opposing corners. I love Robertson to rack up at least four combined stops.

George Pickens practiced fully Tuesday, setting him up for another big game. It will be played indoors, against a Lions defense that plays the most man coverage (42.8 percent) and third-most single-high safety (61.4 percent) in the NFL. Pickens destroys those alignments. He's cleared this prop total in seven straight games and has 68 targets in that span.