Larry's Picks (2 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
Anthony Edwards had gone Over his rebounds+assists line in five straight games until finishing well below the 12.5 total in Game 4, when he had four rebounds and four assists. Edwards was focusing on scoring and finished with 36 points. Most books dropped Edwards' combo prop to 11.5 but DraftKings is offering a juiced 10.5 that I bet. Edwards is averaging 40 minutes in this series. He does everything for the T-Wolves, and I like him to get back to his usual ways in the rebounds+assists market.
Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 15 rebounds in this series. He has cleared this prop total in his last five matchups against Boston. Two factors are helping his cause when it comes to rebounds: Kristaps Porzingis continues to deal with a viral illness, forcing the Celtics to start 38-year-old Al Horford and play him more minutes than they'd like. And Boston's hack-a-Shaq strategy against Mitchell Robinson has forced the Knicks to play the effective backup center fewer minutes than they'd like. KAT got into foul trouble in Game 1 and still finished with 13 boards. He pulled down 15 boards in Game 3 despite Boston shooting 48.2 percent. Look for KAT to notch at least 12 rebounds in what should be a competitive Game 4.
Red Sox starter Tanner Houck owns a 6.10 ERA, but he's actually pitched pretty well lately, allowing two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts. He has a career 1.42 ERA vs. Detroit. The Tigers counter with rookie Jackson Jobe, who has gone four or fewer innings in three of his six starts. Boston has won four of five, and Rafael Devers has a 1.277 OPS over his last 15 games. Since his 0-for-19 start, which included 15 strikeouts, Devers leads MLB with an .888 OPS.
Brewers starter Freddy Peralta is in excellent form. Last time out he blanked the Cubs over six innings, and now he owns the third-lowest ERA in the NL. There are some warning signs for Guardians starter Ben Lively, including his career-high 45.6 percent hard-hit rate and his expected ERA of 4.55. The Brewers' offense doesn't excite me, but I like the pitching edge enough to play this.
Coming off a horrific performance, look for Tyrese Haliburton to bounce back, especially as a distributor. He averaged 11 assists per game post-All Star Break. Haliburton cleared this prop total in his first six playoff games this season before falling short in the last two. I like that we have a healthy total of 230.5.
Aaron Gordon has elevated his game in the playoffs, especially at home. He has cleared this prop total in all but one home playoff game. With Denver playing a small rotation and Nikola Jokic attracting most of the attention, Gordon is in a great spot to continue his all-around production.
Anthony Edwards missed time with an ankle injury in Game 2, but still finished with nine rebounds and five assists. That marked the sixth time in seven playoff games he has cleared this 12.5 prop total. WIth a more competitive game expected in Golden State, I look for Edwards to play 40 minutes and go Over on combined rebounds and assists.
Aaron Gordon grabbed 14 rebounds in Game 1 -- seven offensive -- but followed that up with only five rebounds in Game 2. Interestingly, all five came on the offensive glass. Perhaps that's because the Thunder rarely missed. Gordon played 27 minutes in the blowout loss. Assuming this game is more competitive, Gordon should play close to 40 minutes and be extremely active as a rebounder.
The Twins have won five straight, but I'll take the 24-14 road team against Chris Paddack. Minnesota has lost six of his seven starts, and his expected ERA of 5.01 isn't much better than his actual 5.57 ERA. He has only struck out four total batters in his last two starts covering 10 innings. The Giants were off Thursday so their bullpen is rested behind Jordan Hicks.
Patrick Corbin has been a pleasant surprise, but he's got an expected ERA of 4.69. He's facing a Tigers lineup that owns an .847 OPS over the last 15 days. Look for Tarik Skubal to dominate as usual and for the Tigers to lead after five innings.
The Blue Jays have lost four straight overall and are 5-12 on the road. But they've got a nice pitching edge Thursday with Chris Bassitt (2.95 ERA) opposing Jose Soriano. Soriano has allowed a 46.3 percent hard-hit rate and the Angels have lost his last four starts, though he did pitch well last time out. Look for Toronto to salvage the series finale.
Anthony Edwards missed his first 10 shots in Game 1, but he did finish with 14 rebounds and two assists. That was the fifth time in six playoff games in which Edwards cleared this 12.5 prop total. His Timberwolves' teammates won't shoot as poorly in Game 2, which should lead to more assists. And Edwards should remain very aggressive throughout, attacking the glass, after he got called out by coach Chris Finch for not bringing the proper energy and leadership.
The Warriors give up the fourth-most rebounds to opposing centers (16.2 per game). Rudy Gobert grabbed 11 rebounds in 26 minutes in Game 1 after pulling down 24 rebounds in the clinching win over the Lakers. Steph Curry's absence means Golden State will play a bigger lineup; Gobert is less likely to be played off the floor. In addition, look for Gobert to get held less after Chris Finch complained officials let Gobert get "physically beaten on" in Game 1.