Larry's Picks (1 Live)
Three key Timberwolves -- Anthony Edwards, Naz Reid and Ayo Dosunmo -- played major minutes Friday despite their injuries. Someone else needs to step up Sunday, and 25-year-old Terrence Shannon Jr. is a great candidate. He was plus-19 in Game 3, making solid contributions despite scoring five points on 2-of-6 shooting. Shannon had scored 12-plus points in the four previous playoff games. With Chris Finch shortening his rotation, Shannon should have enough opportunities to score at least eight points in Game 4.
Joel Embiid is probable to play despite his hip injury. But he's coming off an ineffective 35 minutes Friday. In two games this series, Embiid is 10 for 28 from the field while averaging five rebounds and three assists. He sat out Game 2 and it was Philly's best performance vs. New York. With his team facing elimination, I'm confident Embiid will try to play. But I'll bet against the combination of minutes and efficiency he'll need to clear this prop total.
It's hard to get in the way of a surging Knicks team that has won six in a row while going 5-1 ATS. But the 76ers moved the ball well in Game 3 at home and created tremendous, open looks. They just didn't make them, shooting 43 percent overall and 28 percent from deep. With the series all but over, Philly won't be feeling the pressure. Look for the 76ers to show some pride and avoid getting swept on their home floor.
Naz Reid has cleared this prop total in seven straight games; he grabbed seven boards in Game 2 despite playing just 21 minutes in a major blowout. With Minnesota playing just three bigs -- Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Reid -- I like Reid to continue his rebounding pace. I would also go Over 6.5 at plus money.
Tyrese Maxey almost never comes off the floor. He won’t have to deal with OG Anunoby in Game 3, and Josh Hart is playing with a thumb injury. After scoring 26 points at MSG in Game 2, I like the explosive Maxey to get at least that many at home in a must-win spot.
In each of the past two games -- Game 1 vs. the Lakers and Game 4 at Phoenix -- Chet Holmgren grabbed 12 boards. I like him to continue that pace, or close to it, against the offensively-challenged Lakers. Holmgren averaged 9.7 rebounds at home during the regular season, compared to 8.2 on the road. He is a total mismatch for LA, so he should see plenty of minutes before garbage time.
Sam Merrill injured his hamstring and left after seven minutes of Game 1. Max Strus stepped up with 19 points, five rebounds and two assists in 28 minutes. Merrill missed Wednesday's practice, got an MRI and is questionable. Given he missed games in March and April due to hamstring issues, and that he was not walking well in the locker room Tuesday night, I don't expect him to play. That would leave Strus with big minutes. Strus missed the first 67 games this season recovering from a fractured foot, then shot 40.2 percent from deep in the final 12 games. In the playoffs, he's 20 of 45 (44.4 percent) from deep. Cleveland needs to replace Merrill's shooting, so Strus should get a lot of opportunities.
Naz Reid played 30 minutes in Game 1, the same amount as Rudy Gobert. He has cleared this prop total in six straight games. Minnesota only plays three bigs -- Gobert, Julius Randle and Naz Reid. Even with blowout potential, I like Reid to be very involved yet again.
The Spurs, after breezing past Portland, weren't ready for the intense defense Minnesota brought in Game 1. Look for a huge bounceback Wednesday in front of San Antonio's raucous home crowd. Yes, Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu are good to go. But I'm expecting a lot more offensively from Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox. We should get urgency and a supremely focused effort from the Spurs.
Paul George played just 26 minutes due to Monday's blowout, but he still got up six 3-pointers and drained four of them. It was his sixth straight game making at least three shots from beyond the arc. In the postseason, he is 26 of 46 (56.5 percent) from deep. George looks refreshed after missing 25 games due to a suspension, and the Knicks' No. 1 defensive priority is containing Tyrese Maxey. Back George at plus money to hit at least three 3-pointers.
Chet Holmgren pulled down 10 boards in each of his final two regular-season meetings with the Lakers. In one of those he only played 22 minutes. With LA expected to struggle offensively in Game 1, I like Holmgren to control the glass and grab at least nine boards. I would also go Over 9.5 at plus money.
Defensive whiz Ausar Thompson scored eight or fewer points in five of seven games vs. Orlando. However, he played 32-plus minutes in the final five games. That's critical because in the two most recent meetings with Cleveland, Thompson also played big minutes -- 31 and 36. He turned those minutes into 16 and 18 points. I'm expecting Detroit to force a substantial amount of turnovers, which should help Thompson score at least 10 points.
De'Aaron Fox averaged 20.2 points in the first playoff round, and I like him to be very productive in this matchup. He scored 18-plus three straight times to close the Portland series. Just as important, the Spurs gave Fox 34-plus minutes in every game. In three regular-season matchups with Minnesota, Fox put up 25 points twice (and 12 in the other matchup in which he shot 6 of 19). Look for the vet to start out hot in the Western Conference semis.
Mitchell Robinson averaged just 14 minutes against the Hawks, but he was still very effective, putting up an average of 11.8 points, assists and rebounds. Robinson figures to have a much more substantial role against Joel Embiid and Philly. Robinson also has the motivational angle, as it was Embiid who committed a flagrant foul against him in the 2024 playoffs, causing Robinson to miss a postseason game. With Embiid's knack for getting Karl-Anthony Towns into foul trouble, I love Robinson to play 20 or more minutes and clear this combo line with ease.