Larry's Picks (1 Live)
Kenneth Walker rushed 19 times for 62 yards in the NFC Championship Game. He's arguably facing a tougher run defense in the Super Bowl. Over their past four games (playoffs plus Week 18 vs. Miami), New England has faced 93 rush attempts and allowed a total of five yards before contact. Milton Williams, Khyiris Tonga and Christian Barmore have been stout up front, with safeties Craig Woodson and Jaylinn Hawkins stepping up in run defense. Linebacker Jack Gibbens would be an adequate replacement if Robert Spillane (ankle) can't go. With New England giving up 3.1 yards per carry in the postseason, I bet against Walker having a big day on the ground.
Kayshon Boutte is New England's best deep threat; his ADOT is nearly 17 yards downfield. In Super Bowl 60, he'll face a Seahawks defense that plays a lot of 2-high safety coverage, protecting against the deep ball. Seattle gives up the fifth-fewest explosive passes (20-plus yards). Look for Boutte to make a big play or two but to stay Under on receptions.
Seahawks backup running back George Holani ran 17 routes last week (one more than Kenneth Walker), catching three of four targets for 27 yards. The Boise State product suffered a hamstring injury in November but returned for the NFC title game. He earned praise from Mike Macdonald for being ready to make an immediate impact. Holani, who is excellent in pass protection, played 23 snaps (34.3 percent snap share). That included work in the two-minute drill. The Patriots allow the eighth-most targets to opposing running backs. Look for Holani to catch at least two passes Sunday.
Opposing tight ends averaged 8.32 targets versus the Seahawks, sixth-most. But in terms of target share, Seattle stands as the NFL's top tight-end funnel. The Seahawks stuff the run and possess an elite secondary that blankets wideouts. That will prompt Drake Maye to look for his No. 1 tight end early and often. When Henry has faced tight-end funnel defenses this season, he typically draws a ton of volume.
It's been four months since any team not named the Rams had major offensive success vs. Seattle's NFL-best defense. The Patriots' offense has looked shaky in the playoffs, a trend I expect to continue Sunday. Drake Maye has taken 15 sacks in three playoff games. While New England's defense has been just as impressive as Seattle's lately, the Seahawks have the more explosive offensive playmakers (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Rashid Shaheed, Kenneth Walker). That should enable Seattle to make enough plays and win a 23-16 type of game.
The Wildcats are coming off a 40-point loss at Illinois and have only one strong offensive weapon in Nick Martinelli. Iowa is 12-1 at home and looking for its sixth straight win. In Big Ten games, Northwestern ranks 14th in defending the 3-point shot (36.6 percent allowed). That should enable the Hawkeyes to shoot efficiently, build an lead and pull away for the cover.
Clippers forward John Collins is averaging 30.5 minutes and 7.5 rebounds this month. LA traded away Ivica Zubac, putting more of a rebounding workload on Collins. This is not an easy matchup, but I still like Collins to corral seven boards at plus money.
The Vikings won the first meeting 96-69 on Jan. 10. This matchup at Sacramento State will be closer, but I still like the Big Sky leaders to cover. The Hornets have won five of seven overall; they're 9-1 at home. Portland State, however, paces the conference and has not lost a Big Sky road game. Look for the Vikings' senior trio -- Terri Miller Jr. (19.4 ppg, 6.0 rpg), Jaylin Henderson (17.4 ppg, 6.3 apg) and Tre-Vaughn Minott (10.8 ppg ,8.6 rpg) -- to overpower the home team.
The Bulldogs have had a full week to prepare for Arkansas and dynamic freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr. (20.3 ppg, 6.2 apg). They're coming off two straight covers on the road (winning at LSU, falling at Mizzou) and I like them to keep this close behind Josh Hubbard. The junior guard has scored 20-plus points in six of his last 10 games. While the Razorbacks are clearly more talented this season, the Bulldogs have won the past six home meetings straight-up. Grab the points.
Sophomore guard Tyler Johnson remains out for the Hokies, who are currently on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. I still like Virginia Tech to keep it competitive in Raleigh, N.C., in part due to their extra rest. The Hokies are coming off a 14-point home loss to Duke, but haven't lost two in a row in more than a month. The Wolfpack are rolling and lead the ACC in 3-point shooting percentage (40.1). But the Hokies pace the conference in defending that shot, holding opponents to 29.5 percent. Grab the points.
I like Belmont to notch its eighth straight win -- and cover -- as the Bruins continue to display incredible offensive efficiency. They shoot 60.8 percent on 2-pointers and 40.1 percent from beyond the arc, and lead the nation in effective field-goal percentage. Alltime, Belmont is 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) against the Flames. The Bruins have thrived on the road this season, winning nine true road games and two neutral-site games. I would play this up to -4.
Duncan Robinson scored nine points in 21 minutes when the Pistons hosted the Knicks on Jan. 5. But he's playing more now, with 30 minutes in three of his last five games. He made 6 of 15 treys Thursday against the Wizards and has been a more prolific scorer at home (13.4 ppg compared to 10.5 ppg away). This homestand began with Robinson scoring eight points in a blowout win. The next two games were competitive, and Robinson scored 20 and 21. This one should be close as well.
76ers rookie VJ Edgecombe poured in 25 points in 40 minutes of action last time out at Golden State. He was plus-27 in the box score. The No. 3 overall pick should get another big workload in a game with a total of 234, second-highest on the board. The Lakers are below average defensively, and Edgecombe scored 15 points in 38 minutes when LA visited Philly on Dec. 7. With Paul George suspended and Joel Embiid questionable, the surging 76ers are relying on Edgecome to supplement Tyrese Maxey's offense.
UAB is 0-4 in conference home games, while Memphis is 1-6 in true road games. The Tigers' lone road win came over a month ago at Rice. Memphis continues to deal with key injuries and leads the American with 14.3 turnovers per game. The Blazers rank second in the conference in turnover margin (plus 3.18). Look for UAB to get a little payback for the Tigers' three-game sweep of the Blazers last season.