Larry's Picks (1 Live)
Twins starter Zebby Matthews owns a 6.17 road ERA and has allowed a 12.5 percent barrel rate. That’s in the bottom 5 percent of MLB. The Cubs’ last eight wins have come by two or more runs. Back Shota Imanaga and Chicago on the run line.
Lefty Reid Detmers is 0-4 with a 4.77 ERA at home, and he allowed five homers in three starts leading up to the All-Star Break. Detroit brings a top-10 offense versus southpaws. The Tigers counter with Troy Melton, who has been dominant, and he's supported by a pen that has thrived lately. I like this price on the visitors.
Shota Imanaga dominated the Reds earlier this season. In his career, he’s 2-0 with a 2.63 ERA vs. Cincinnati. This is Hunter Greene’s second start since returning from elbow surgery. He was rocked in his return and figures to struggle Friday. Back the Cubs to win for the ninth time in 12 games.
Lowly Colorado has been feisty lately. The Rockies have won five of eight, with two of the losses coming to the Dodgers in their final at-bat. Starter Ryan Feltner has pitched well vs. the Giants twice, allowing two earned runs over 12 innings with 11 strikeouts. Back Colorado to at least be tied through five.
Rangers starter MacKenzie Gore is 3-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home. Earlier this season, he held the Angels to one run on one hit over six innings. Even though Mike Trout returns to the lineup, look for the Halos to drop their eighth straight.
The Red Sox have won four straight and nine of 11. Lefty Jake Bennett has allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts, and the White Sox are struggling against southpaws. Although the White Sox have been great at home this season, I'll back the team in better current form and with a superior pen.
The Brewers are 29-15 on the road and send Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.82 ERA) to the mound. He blanked the Cardinals over six innings on May 26. In that same game, Cards starter Michael McGreevy was roughed up for five runs over four innings. Look for the surging Brewers to send St. Louis to its fifth straight loss.
Gerrit Cole came back from Tommy John surgery in May and tossed 12.2 scoreless innings over his first two starts. In his last six starts, Cole has been shaky, posting a 5.70 ERA with eight homers allowed in 30 innings. He owns a bottom-4 percent whiff rate across MLB and a 22.8 percent strikeout rate, Cole's lowest since 2016. The Rays are 32-13 at home, where starter Shane McClanahan is 5-1 with a 2.21 ERA. Over the past 15 days, the Yankees rank dead last with an OPS of .544. Back the Rays in the third game of this pivotal series.
Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo is 3-0 with a 1.88 ERA over his past four starts. The Twins just put Byron Buxton (hip) on the injured list. That's a big absence as the All-Star has hit 25 homers with a .904 OPS. Minnesota starter Taj Bradley has allowed a 47 percent hard-hit rate, among the highest in MLB.
Giants starter Trevor McDonald has stayed Under this line in seven of 11 starts. Last time out, he allowed one hit over six innings at Arizona. The Blue Jays have averaged 2.3 hits over their past three games.
The White Sox are 28-14 at home, but they could be at a disadvantage given the matchup of starting southpaws. Chicago's Noah Schultz will make his second start since going on the injured list with knee tendinitis. He needed 87 pitches to get through 4.1 innings last time out. Schultz has a bottom-5 percent walk rate with a bottom-10 percent chase rate. The Red Sox have been mauling lefties lately.
The Yankees have struck out an MLB-high 12.3 times per game over their last three outings. Converted Rays reliever Ian Seymour has fanned six Yankees in 4.1 innings of relief this season. In his last two starts, Seymour struck out eight and seven batters. This will be his fifth start; I like him to go six innings and fan at least six Yankees.
The Padres ended a long skid Sunday night against the Dodgers, and I like them to build off that here. Walker Buehler was lit up at Wrigley Field last time out. But he owns a 3.13 ERA at home. This is Brandon Pfaadt’s second start since being recalled from the minors. He has a 5.40 ERA in the majors this season.
The Brewers are 26-15 on the road and should hit Dustin May, who has not gone more than two innings in either of his last two starts. Over the past 30 days, the Brewers rank seventh in OPS (.790). Milwaukee rookie Shane Drohan, a converted reliever, has allowed a total of three earned runs in his last three starts covering 15 innings.
Houston enters off of consecutive wins over Tampa Bay and should tee off against Miles Mikolas. The Nats' starter owns a 5.82 home ERA, with 10 homers allowed in 38.2 innings. He has a bottom-2 percent strikeout rate and a bottom-1 percent whiff rate. The Astros' bullpen has tightened up since Josh Hader returned just over a month ago.