Chip's Picks (3 Live)
Oklahoma had a run of getting off to good starts against top SEC teams only to wilt down the stretch, with the four-point loss to Arkansas back on Jan. 27 being one of those examples. The Sooners offensive ceiling is so high that in a neutral game state they played free and scored often, only to struggle to win those key possessions in the second half. Now Oklahoma is riding a six-game winning streak with two wins already in Nashville and playing an Arkansas team that’s been on ice for nearly a week. I’ll take the team in rhythm with a history of hot starts to do so again, and give Oklahoma a good feeling heading into the locker room at halftime.
Alabama’s SEC Tournament performances across 2024 and 2025 were a series of track meets, with an average of 181.7 points scored across those three games. Those teams, like this one in 2026, played fast with one of the best offenses in the country and had a defense that was average in terms of efficiency in SEC play. Ole Miss benefited from some cold shooting on Georgia’s part in the first half of the Rebels’ 76-72 upset win, and regression could be coming in the form of a big scoring night for the Crimson Tide. Getting to 90 points against this defense should be manageable for Nate Oats' crew.
Arizona blitzed Iowa State in Tucson, but will find less home cooking in Kansas City, where Iowa State fans have really embraced being one of the best crowds in the Big 12 Tournament. It helps that the Cyclones' style is powered by suffocating defense and quick spurts of points that can send supporters into a frenzy. Of course, it’s tough to find things to cheer about when the other team is operating at the clip that Arizona can, so forcing turnovers is going to be a huge key to disrupting the Wildcats’ dominance. Senior guard Tamin Lipsey is also an X-factor with his Big 12 Tournament experience, as Iowa State is looking to win its second Big 12 Tournament title in the last three years.
While Tennessee has trended to the under recently (4-1 in their last five), this could be an opponent that speeds them up and allows for some more offensive success than what the Vols had at the start of their comeback win against Auburn. It took awhile for star freshman Nate Ament to heat up in his return to the lineup for Tennessee, but eventually he wore down the Tigers’ defense to finish with a team-high 27 points. These two teams played less than a week ago and it was an 86-82 game played at Vanderbilt’s pace, so anything under 150 seems like a fair play.
Less than a week ago Kentucky was mounting a furious charge in a game it never led to cut a 20-point second half deficit down to only seven by the final horn. The Wildcats will have a good crowd on hand, as they usually do for the SEC Tournament, but the Gators have been outstanding away from home and Todd Golden is building a reputation as a good SEC Tournament coach with a 6-2 record in the event. I’m thinking the gap between these two teams on a neutral court is a little bit closer to that 20-point lead Florida built over 30 minutes in Rupp Arena last weekend.
Both of these teams are skidding into the tournament in terms of form, each losing their final two regular season games. Kentucky's five-point win against LSU in its SEC Tournament opener did not inspire confidence, either, as the defense has now given up 80+ points three games in a row. Missouri should be able to score and Mark Mitchell could be set for another 20+ point performance against Kentucky's frontcourt.
It might be tough to beat a team three times, but Virginia has had enough cushion in two wins this season to think they can cover the two-possession spread against NC State. Defensively, the Wolfpack have not been overly effective or sharp and the versatility of the Wahoos' bigs create some real matchup problems. Virginia won both games by double-digits and NC State never even held the lead in either defeat.
The quality of play from Penn State has gotten viciously low here at the end of an extremely difficult season. The Nittany Lions have lost five of the last six games and enter the Big Ten Tournament coming off a 32-point loss to Ohio State at home and a 12-point loss to Rutgers on the road. Northwestern has better top-end players, beat Penn State by 21 points earlier this year and has been more consistently competitive than the Nittany Lions over the last three weeks. It’s a big number for a Tuesday night game between two of the four lowest-seeded teams in the league, but I’m expecting a locked-in performance for senior Nick Martinelli and the Wildcats playing in Chicago.
Virginia Tech controlled the regular season meeting, winning 82-63 and absolutely carving up Wake Forest’s defense to the tune of 1.35 points per possessions (a season-high for the Hokies). I’m not sure Wake Forest, a team that ranks 15th in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play, is going to have a lot of the answers they lacked when it comes to stopping Mike Young’s offense. Virginia Tech is clearly gutted from a tough loss four-point loss at Virginia over the weekend, but their slim tournament hopes can be kept alive with a deep run in the tournament. The Deacs could play this game closer than last month’s loss in Blacksburg, but this line doesn’t address the mismatch of that meeting.
Northern Iowa is on its fourth game in four days, and might have started to see the effect of those minutes as Bradley closed an 18-point deficit to lose by four points in the semifinals. UIC has handled business in both of its two tournament games, winning by 13 and 21 points, and has generally been playing better basketball since Northern Iowa beat the Flames by six points back on Dec. 17. They split the season series, but the edge goes to UIC with rest advantage and a form that's trending in the right direction as the school eyes its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2004.
Ohio State is averaging 77.2 points per game in Big Ten play this season, but that number is skewed by a couple of offensive duds against the elite defenses of Michigan (twice) and Michigan State. The Buckeyes average 80.3 points per game against everyone else in the conference, and have put up at least 80 points in six of their last seven home games. Now they face an Indiana team that may have had a pour-it-out game against lowly Minnesota to stop a four-game losing streak, and I’m not going to overreact to the Hoosiers’ defensive performance in that win to think they are ready to slow Bruce Thornton and John Mobley.
Florida has been dynamite away from home, going 10-1 against the spread with the only slip-up coming at Missouri back on Jan. 3. Florida has met, and in some cases exceeded expectations in each of its last seven SEC road games and now gets to kick off its 2026 postseason road trip in hostile territory against Big Blue Nation. I think the Gators will thrive in this kind of environment and no amount of revenge angle from the first meeting (a 92-83 Florida win) can change what is a noticeable gap between these two teams. Florida is a national title contender and games like this are going to bring out the best in the Gators, which should be good enough to cover a two-possession spread.