Chip's Picks (4 Live)
Less than a week ago Kentucky was mounting a furious charge in a game it never led to cut a 20-point second half deficit down to only seven by the final horn. The Wildcats will have a good crowd on hand, as they usually do for the SEC Tournament, but the Gators have been outstanding away from home and Todd Golden is building a reputation as a good SEC Tournament coach with a 6-2 record in the event. I’m thinking the gap between these two teams on a neutral court is a little bit closer to that 20-point lead Florida built over 30 minutes in Rupp Arena last weekend.
Both of these teams are skidding into the tournament in terms of form, each losing their final two regular season games. Kentucky's five-point win against LSU in its SEC Tournament opener did not inspire confidence, either, as the defense has now given up 80+ points three games in a row. Missouri should be able to score and Mark Mitchell could be set for another 20+ point performance against Kentucky's frontcourt.
It might be tough to beat a team three times, but Virginia has had enough cushion in two wins this season to think they can cover the two-possession spread against NC State. Defensively, the Wolfpack have not been overly effective or sharp and the versatility of the Wahoos' bigs create some real matchup problems. Virginia won both games by double-digits and NC State never even held the lead in either defeat.
The quality of play from Penn State has gotten viciously low here at the end of an extremely difficult season. The Nittany Lions have lost five of the last six games and enter the Big Ten Tournament coming off a 32-point loss to Ohio State at home and a 12-point loss to Rutgers on the road. Northwestern has better top-end players, beat Penn State by 21 points earlier this year and has been more consistently competitive than the Nittany Lions over the last three weeks. It’s a big number for a Tuesday night game between two of the four lowest-seeded teams in the league, but I’m expecting a locked-in performance for senior Nick Martinelli and the Wildcats playing in Chicago.
Virginia Tech controlled the regular season meeting, winning 82-63 and absolutely carving up Wake Forest’s defense to the tune of 1.35 points per possessions (a season-high for the Hokies). I’m not sure Wake Forest, a team that ranks 15th in the ACC in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play, is going to have a lot of the answers they lacked when it comes to stopping Mike Young’s offense. Virginia Tech is clearly gutted from a tough loss four-point loss at Virginia over the weekend, but their slim tournament hopes can be kept alive with a deep run in the tournament. The Deacs could play this game closer than last month’s loss in Blacksburg, but this line doesn’t address the mismatch of that meeting.
Northern Iowa is on its fourth game in four days, and might have started to see the effect of those minutes as Bradley closed an 18-point deficit to lose by four points in the semifinals. UIC has handled business in both of its two tournament games, winning by 13 and 21 points, and has generally been playing better basketball since Northern Iowa beat the Flames by six points back on Dec. 17. They split the season series, but the edge goes to UIC with rest advantage and a form that's trending in the right direction as the school eyes its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2004.
Ohio State is averaging 77.2 points per game in Big Ten play this season, but that number is skewed by a couple of offensive duds against the elite defenses of Michigan (twice) and Michigan State. The Buckeyes average 80.3 points per game against everyone else in the conference, and have put up at least 80 points in six of their last seven home games. Now they face an Indiana team that may have had a pour-it-out game against lowly Minnesota to stop a four-game losing streak, and I’m not going to overreact to the Hoosiers’ defensive performance in that win to think they are ready to slow Bruce Thornton and John Mobley.
Florida has been dynamite away from home, going 10-1 against the spread with the only slip-up coming at Missouri back on Jan. 3. Florida has met, and in some cases exceeded expectations in each of its last seven SEC road games and now gets to kick off its 2026 postseason road trip in hostile territory against Big Blue Nation. I think the Gators will thrive in this kind of environment and no amount of revenge angle from the first meeting (a 92-83 Florida win) can change what is a noticeable gap between these two teams. Florida is a national title contender and games like this are going to bring out the best in the Gators, which should be good enough to cover a two-possession spread.
Cincinnati has size, athleticism and confidence coming into this game with a 6-1 record since Feb. 7. The Bearcats have held five of those opponents under 70 points with a defense that forces tough shots thanks to two powers in the post with 6-11 senior Baba Miller and 7-2 sophomore Moustapha Thiam. TCU can boast an even longer streak of success with seven wins in its last eight games, but the variance of their performances leaves some questions in the wake of a monster win at Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs' regular rotation doesn’t have anyone taller than 6-8, so the size advantage could be a tough factor to overcome for a team that might not have as much bubble-related urgency as the Bearcats.
I’m through having any hesitation about Miami’s status as one of the better teams in this conference, as though the 24 wins and 13-4 conference mark weren’t enough. But for about a month we have seen Miami not only take down tournament-bound ACC teams like North Carolina, NC State and most recently, SMU, but take care of business against lesser competition. The team is 7-1 since Feb. 1 with the only loss coming at Virginia by three points, and Louisville has been far too erratic on the road to be trusted. The Cardinals are 3-7 in true road games this year, and Mikel Brown’s DNP on Tuesday leaves some availability questions for the team’s star freshman.
Arkansas won the the first meeting 94-86 back on Feb. 21, but what should be noted for the rematch was how Missouri's Mark Mitchell was able to cause real problems for the Razorbacks’ frontcourt. Mitchell had a game-high 26 points, and took more than half of Missouri’s free throws as Trevon Brazile (fouled out), Malique Ewin (four fouls) and Nick Pringle (four fouls in 12 minutes) all dealt with foul trouble. It wasn’t like Arkansas had success sending extra help, either, because Mitchell also had a game-high eight assists in the loss. I’m just not sure enough has changed between Feb. 21 and March 7 to think Arkansas has a better answer to stop Missouri’s versatile big man and slowing the Tigers' offense.