The line being nearly a field goal in this game never made sense, but as kickoff approaches at nearly a pick ‘em, there’s value to be had with an Oregon team that faced a much tougher schedule, held down better opponents and only lost to the No. 1 team in the nation. The close contest at Iowa is a concerning outlier, but as we saw last year and on New Year’s Eve, teams that play in the first round have a clear momentum advantage. Dakorien Moore being cleared to play should be a huge help to a multiple Ducks offense that is difficult to stymie for four quarters with Dante Moore at the helm. This may be the best game of the quarterfinals.

I realize the Ducks' haven't had the toughest schedule in the country, but it has been much tougher than what the Red Raiders have faced. I'm sorry, but two blowout wins over highly overrated BYU and another win over Utah aren't enough to convince me Texas Tech is better than Oregon. I also like that the Ducks already have played in the playoffs this season, while the Red Raiders have been sitting since the Big 12 Championship Game. Going back to last season, the teams with a bye in the CFP are 0-5. Oregon covers.

Texas Tech has an elite defense no doubt. So does Oregon. Where the difference between the two teams are in the passing game. The Ducks have a potential Top 5 pick in QB Dante Moore, who is a terrific dual-threat QB and is armed with elite weapons across the receiving corps. If it came down to which offense could you trust vs an elite defense, you have to side with Oregon.

The "go against the bye team" playoff argument wouldn't alone be enough to suggest against what has been a rampant Texas Tech. Yet for all of the Red Raider exploits, we're not sure they have faced a truly elite offense (BYU, while good, might not qualify), but they definitely see that in the Ducks, who have the potential top draft pick (if he comes out) in QB Dante Moore, and an offense that scored better than 38 ppg this season. Maybe we just need a bit more evidence on Texas Tech vs. top-caliber foes other than BYU. We also suspect Oregon put it on cruise control a bit early vs. JMU, resulting in that first-round blown spread cover. Play Oregon (Orange Bowl at Miami)

This game sets up to be a chess match throughout the afternoon, with both Oregon and Texas Tech looking to set up and eventually execute explosive plays against elite defenses. It's a chess match that will be fascinating to watch play out and likely set up a close game deep into the second half. It's just at some point we're going to need a quarterback to make a game-saving or game-winning play and right now I'd rather side with Dante Moore in that discussion. He's made some huge throws late in games this season and I like his odds more to be able and do so again.

The Red Raiders have looked elite all season. Yes, I know it’s the Big 12 but outside of losing to Arizona State with a backup QB, their next closest game was decided by 22 points. The oddsmakers are not giving Texas Tech enough credit. That defense is a top-three unit in America. Meanwhile, who did Oregon really beat? Penn State? In overtime no less. Iowa? On a last-second field goal. USC? Always a fade on the road. Washington? Also inconsistent. Get ready for the Big Ten PR spin after they lose this one.

I like this quite a bit, and we obviously don't have to worry about opt-out silliness or the like. I believe Texas Tech is crazy overrated. And the Red Raiders will have been off for about a month. Certainly a good team but let's just say I wish Miami had drawn them in this round instead of Ohio State. Believe a major positive that Oregon got to play in Round 1 as long as didn't suffer major injuries -- and it apparently did not. Ducks QB Dante Moore has been lights out of late and might have played himself into being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 draft. Wideout Evan Stewart, who has missed the season injured, might even return.

Pay-to-find-out spot here for me. Texas Tech has had a great season and will clearly be a player every year going forward in the NIL era in the Big 12, but I think they are just one year early here. I expect them to struggle running the ball against Oregon, which should put them in third-and-five-plus situations too often. Oregon gave up points to JMU when the game was no longer in doubt, but they certainly heard about it and should bring a much better effort in this one. Texas Tech ranks 119th in college football in average third-down distance at 7.66 yards, a number that largely came against subpar Big 12 defenses. Multiple-unit pay-to-find-out spot. This number should be -3 with a -147 moneyline.